據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2023年8月17日報道，美國銀行全球研究部在周二（8月15日）發(fā)布的一份新報告中公布了其對2024年布倫特原油和西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格的最新預測。  

美國銀行全球研究部在這份新報告中概述稱，它維持對明年布倫特原油價格每桶90美元和西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格每桶85美元的預測。

美國銀行全球研究部分析師在報告中指出：“盡管2024年更好的全球能源需求趨勢可能會進一步延長能源價格的上漲勢頭，但我們看到了極限。”

“我們的經(jīng)濟團隊最近上調(diào)了對全球GDP的預測，現(xiàn)在預計今年全球GDP將增長3%，2024年將增長2.8%。然而，石油對GDP的β值（即邊際消費傾向?qū)嶋HGDP影響值）不像以前那么強，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟現(xiàn)在有更多的備用產(chǎn)能，因為它剛剛實施了大幅減產(chǎn)。”

“在這一點上，為了抵消明年沙特減產(chǎn)的部分影響，2024年全球GDP可能需要增長3.5%至4%，比美國銀行的預期高出0.7%至1.2%。”美國銀行全球研究部的分析師們繼續(xù)說道。 

分析師們接著說，此外，衰退風險已經(jīng)消退，但并未消失，全球名義和實際利率高企將在明年增加再融資風險。

美國銀行全球研究部的分析師們在報告中表示，他們認為，布倫特原油價格要持續(xù)突破每桶100美元，需求狀況需要大幅改善。

分析師們表示：“由于石油供需可能在2024年保持大致平衡，布倫特原油價格持續(xù)上漲至每桶100美元以上，因此將取決于歐佩克+聯(lián)盟進一步削減原油供應(yīng)(不太可能)、計劃外供應(yīng)中斷(不確定)或更好的需求條件(意外)。”

美國銀行全球研究部分析師們在報告中強調(diào)，他們預計今年全球石油日需求量將增加190萬桶，2024年將增加106萬桶，“需求增加主要由亞洲主導”。  

在8月份發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報告中，美國能源信息署(EIA)預計，2024年布倫特原油和西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的現(xiàn)貨平均價格將分別達到每桶86.48美元和每桶81.48美元。

8月STEO報告預計，明年第一季度布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶88美元，第二季度為每桶87美元，第三季度為每桶86美元，第四季度為每桶85美元。8月STEO報告預計，2024年第一季度WTI原油現(xiàn)貨均價將為每桶83美元，第二季度為每桶82美元，第三季度為每桶81美元，第四季度為每桶80美元。

EIA在7月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO報告中預測，2024年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶83.51美元，明年WTI原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶78.51美元。

在該STEO報告中，預計2024年第一季度布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶81.98美元，第二季度為每桶83美元，第三季度為每桶84美元，第四季度為每桶85美元。7月份的STEO報告預計，明年第一季度WTI原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶76.98美元，第二季度為每桶78美元，第三季度為每桶79美元，第四季度為每桶80美元。

在本周發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份報告中，渣打銀行透露，到2024年，洲際交易所布倫特原油均價為每桶98美元，紐約商交所西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油均價為每桶95美元。

渣打銀行預計，2024年第一季度布倫特原油均價為每桶92美元，第二季度為每桶94美元，第三季度為每桶98美元，第四季度為每桶106美元。渣打銀行預測，明年第一季度WTI原油平均價格為每桶89美元，第二季度為每桶91美元，第三季度為每桶95美元，第四季度為每桶103美元。

在7月18日發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報告中，渣打銀行對布倫特原油和西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的2024年季度和總體價格做出了同樣的預測。

在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油的交易價格為每桶83.91美元，而WTI原油的交易價格為每桶79.85美元。

布倫特原油價格從6月27日的每桶72.26美元上漲至8月9日的每桶87.55美元。在同一時間段內(nèi)，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格從每桶67.7美元上漲至每桶84.4美元。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

BofA Global Research Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts

BofA Global Research has revealed its latest Brent and WTI oil price forecasts for 2024 in a new report published Tuesday, which was sent to Rigzone.

In the report, BofA Global Research outlined that it was maintaining a Brent forecast of $90 per barrel and a WTI forecast of $85 per barrel for next year.

“While better global energy demand trends in 2024 could further extend the upward momentum in energy prices, we see limits,” BofA Global Research analysts noted in the report.

“Our economics team recently upgraded their global GDP forecast and now expects growth of three percent in 2023 and 2.8 percent in 2024. Yet, oil betas to GDP are not as strong as they used to be and OPEC+ now has more spare capacity due to the deep cuts it just implemented,” they added.

“On this point, to offset a partial unwind of the Saudi ‘lollipop cut’ next year would likely require global GDP growth of 3.5 percent to four percent in 2024, 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent higher than BofA expectations,” the analysts continued.

“Also, recession risks have faded but not disappeared and high nominal and real interest rates globally will increase refinancing risks in the next year,” they went on to state.

In the report, the BofA Global Research analysts said they believe demand conditions need to improve materially for a sustained move above $100 per barrel in Brent.

“With oil supply and demand likely to remain roughly balanced in 2024, a sustained run up in Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel would thus depend on deeper oil supply cuts by OPEC+ (unlikely), unplanned supply disruptions (uncertain), or much better demand conditions (unexpected),” they stated.

The BofA Global Research analysts highlighted in the report that, net, they see 1.9 million barrels per day of global oil demand growth in 2023 and 1.06 million barrels in 2024, “l(fā)ed mostly by Asia”.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent and WTI spot average prices would come in at $86.48 per barrel and $81.48 per barrel, respectively, in 2024.

The August STEO sees the Brent spot price averaging $88 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $87 per barrel in the second quarter, $86 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The STEO anticipates that the WTI spot price average will be $83 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $82 per barrel in the second quarter, $81 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $83.51 in 2024 and that the WTI spot price would average $78.51 per barrel next year.

In that STEO, the Brent spot price was expected to average $81.98 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $83 per barrel in the second quarter, $84 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The WTI spot price was expected to average $76.98 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $78 per barrel in the second quarter, $79 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the July STEO showed.

In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered revealed that it saw ICE Brent averaging $98 per barrel and NYMEX WTI averaging $95 per barrel in 2024.

Standard Chartered sees the Brent price averaging $92 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $94 per barrel in the second quarter, $98 per barrel in the third quarter, and $106 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the report highlighted. The company expects the WTI price to average $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $91 per barrel in the second quarter, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, and $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the report.

Standard Chartered made the same quarterly, and overall, 2024 price projections for Brent and WTI in another report sent to Rigzone on July 18.

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $83.91 per barrel, while WTI crude is trading at $79.85 per barrel.

Brent rose from a close of $72.26 per barrel on June 27 to a close of $87.55 per barrel on August 9. WTI rose from a close of $67.7 per barrel to a close of $84.4 per barrel during the same timeframe.