當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間7月24日周一早盤(pán)，油價(jià)下跌，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油下跌0.70%，至76.53美元，布倫特原油下跌0.68%，至80.52美元

價(jià)格下跌是由于對(duì)美國(guó)和歐洲進(jìn)一步加息的擔(dān)憂

雖然加息將增加油價(jià)的下行壓力，但許多分析師仍相信石油市場(chǎng)將收緊

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，在上周上漲1.5%之后，布倫特原油本周開(kāi)始下跌，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油上周也下跌了2%。

在美國(guó)和歐洲央行公布最新數(shù)據(jù)之前，股市下跌，因?yàn)榻灰讍T們?cè)陬A(yù)估未來(lái)進(jìn)一步加息的可能性。

路透社援引澳大利亞國(guó)民銀行分析師的話認(rèn)為，盡管本周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次加息可能會(huì)推動(dòng)一些短期價(jià)格波動(dòng)，但我們預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克減產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的市場(chǎng)緊縮以及市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步刺激措施的猜測(cè)將在2023年第三季度繼續(xù)推高價(jià)格。

“對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的預(yù)期可能會(huì)給市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)一些壓力，但這次加息應(yīng)該已經(jīng)在很大程度上反映在價(jià)格中”，荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)大宗商品策略主管Warren Patterson告訴彭博社。

“最終，我們認(rèn)為，鑒于基本面趨緊，油價(jià)將突破上行。然而，短期內(nèi)在200日移動(dòng)均線附近存在一些強(qiáng)勁的技術(shù)阻力。”

由于擔(dān)心進(jìn)一步加息以及加息可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，許多石油交易商不愿購(gòu)買這種石油大宗商品，盡管需求一直穩(wěn)定而強(qiáng)勁，而供應(yīng)一直受到限制。

正如Patterson所指出的那樣，盡管基本面普遍看漲，但交易員仍不相信市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，而是在關(guān)注央行的公告。

彭博社今天早些時(shí)候報(bào)道稱，預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在周二和周三舉行的下次會(huì)議上宣布再次加息。該機(jī)構(gòu)還暗示，今年晚些時(shí)候還會(huì)有更多加息。

從樂(lè)觀的角度來(lái)看，路透社報(bào)道稱，許多交易員期待政府出臺(tái)刺激措施，以加快經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度。這將提振本已強(qiáng)勁的石油需求，抵消經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退擔(dān)憂的影響。

壽琳玲 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Slip Ahead Of Interest Rate Updates

Oil prices fell early on Monday morning, with WTI trading down 0.70% at $76.53 and Brent sinking 0.68% to $80.52.

The dip in prices was driven by concerns over further interest rate hikes in both the United States and Europe.

While interest rate hikes will add downward pressure to prices, plenty of analysts remain convinced oil markets will tighten.

After adding 1.5% last week, Brent crude started this week with a dip and so did WTI, which last week gained 2%.

The dip comes ahead of central bank updates due in the United States and Europe, as traders calculate the chances for more rate hikes down the road.

"While another Fed rate hike this week may drive some short-term price volatility, we expect tightening market conditions on OPEC's supply cuts and increasing market speculation of further stimulus in to continue to push prices higher through 3Q23," Reuters quoted analysts from National Australian Bank as saying.

Expectations of a Fed rate hike may be putting some pressure on the market but this hike should already be largely priced in,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, told Bloomberg.

“Ultimately, we believe oil prices will break out to the upside given the tightening fundamentals.However, there is some strong technical resistance nearby in the short term, in the form of the 200-day moving average.”

Fears of more rate hikes and the possibility of a recession as a result of these hikes have held back many oil traders from buying the commodity even though demand has been stable and robust while supply has been constrained.

Despite these generally bullish fundamentals, as noted by ING’s Patterson, traders have remained unconvinced, watching central bank announcements instead.

Bloomberg reported earlier today that expectations are for another hike to be announced at the next Fed meeting, which is taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The outlet also suggested there would be more hikes later in the year.

On the bullish side, Reuters reported that many traders are looking forward to the governments of two economics introducing stimulus measures to accelerate the country’s growth rate.  This would boost already strong oil demand , countering the effect of recession fears.