據今日石油網站2023年4月23日報道，伍德麥肯茲預測，在可行的40多個項目中，今年全球將有30個項目的發展前景樂觀，預計將在2023年做出最終投資決定(FID)。

但這并不容易。

伍德麥肯茲副總裁兼上游分析主管弗蘭克·麥凱和上游研究首席分析師格雷格·里多克表示，在油氣項目上做出FID比以前更難了。

他們表示：“盡管自2020年疫情最嚴重時期以來，油氣活動仍持續增加，但2022年批準的重大項目比年初預期的要少。”

2023年前景較好，但伍德麥肯茲表示，由于成本上漲，一些FID可能會推遲并重新評估。

分析師解釋說：“大多數運營商將保持嚴格的財政紀律。少數回報較低的項目將繼續進行，因為它們具有戰略重要性。”

伍德麥肯茲預計，今年國家石油公司(NOC)將控制最大的投資機會。這位分析師說，最多1850億美元的投資可能用于開發270億桶油當量的油氣儲量。

伍德麥肯茲表示：“國家石油公司今年將占據FID的主導地位，因為它們利用了大量已發現的資源，并擁有最低的單位成本。”國際石油公司(IOC)，如圭亞那斯塔布魯克區塊運營商埃克森美孚公司，將主要關注高成本、高回報的深水開發項目。

伍德麥肯茲表示：“所有人都將敏銳地意識到，石油和天然氣項目的批準將如何在公共領域發揮作用，以及相關排放將受到何種審查。”

此外，伍德麥肯茲表示，今年的項目平均需要每桶49美元才能產生盈虧平衡的15%內部回報率(IRR)。然而，每桶60美元的加權平均內部收益率為19%，這將是2018年以來的最低水平。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網

原文如下：

2023 to be a boon year for project approvals with 30 expected to reach FID – WoodMac

Wood Mackenzie predicts a positive outlook for project development with 30 out of the viable 40+ expected to reach final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2023. 

But it does not come easy. 

WoodMac’s Vice President, Head of Upstream Analysis Frank McKay and Principal Analyst, Upstream, Greg Riddock said that achieving FIDs on oil and gas projects is harder than before.

“Despite a continued uptick in activity since the pandemic nadir of 2020, fewer major projects were sanctioned in 2022 than was expected at the start of the year,” they said. 

2023 offers a better outlook, but WoodMac said several FIDs could be delayed and re-evaluated due to cost inflation.

“Most operators will remain very disciplined. A handful of lower-return projects will proceed because of their strategic importance,” the analysts explained. 

WoodMac anticipates that National Oil Companies (NOCs) would control the largest investment opportunities. The analyst said that up to US$185 billion of the investment could be committed to develop 27 billion oil-equivalent barrels of reserves. 

“NOCs will dominate the year, as they take advantage of huge discovered resources and boast the lowest unit costs,” WoodMac said. International Oil Companies (IOCs) like ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s Stabroek Block, will focus largely on higher-cost, higher-return deepwater developments. 

“All will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject,” WoodMac outlined. 

Additionally, WoodMac said that projects on 2023 will need an average of US$49/bbl to generate a breakeven 15% internal rate of return (IRR). However, a weighted average IRR of 19% at US$60/bbl, would be the lowest level since 2018.