據4月15日今日石油網站消息，隨著EIA修正了對今年和明年的油價預測，油價已飆升至每桶83美元。 

在《短期能源展望》（STEO）中，EIA預計布倫特原油今年的平均價格為每桶85.01美元，比之前的預期高出2.5%；預計2024年的平均價格為每桶81.21美元，比預期高出5%。同時，EIA對于西得克薩斯中質油(WTI)的預測價格同之前相比也提高了相似的幅度。

EIA表示，更高的價格預測反映出2023年全球石油產量將減少，而全球石油消費需求保持相對不變。

EIA稱：“盡管我們的預估價格較高，但最近銀行業的問題增加了經濟和石油需求增長低于我們預期的可能性，這有可能導致油價下跌。”

EIA在預測中考慮到了歐佩克每日減產120萬桶的影響。該消息公布后，原油價格大幅上漲。

原油價格已經從一年前20%的漲幅高點回落，這是地緣政治沖突的直接結果。歐佩克減產則開始推動油價回升，在過去一個月內上漲了約20%。

現在的原油價格與2023年年初的價格水平大致相同。

何勝男 編譯自 今日石油網站

原文如下： 

2023 oil price forecast hiked to $85/b by US Energy Body as OPEC cut remains in play  

Oil prices shot up to US$83 per barrel as the United States (US) Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for this year and the next.  

In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects Brent to average at US$85.01 a barrel this year, 2.5% higher than the previous outlook. Brent prices in 2024 are revised to US$81.21 per barrel – 5% higher than before. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, expectations were raised by a similar amount.  

The EIA said the higher price forecast reflects one for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption.  

“Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices,” the EIA outlined.  

The Administration factored in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 1.2 million barrels of crude a day production cut in its forecast. Crude prices jumped after the announcement.  

Prices have retreated from a 20% spike a year ago, a direct result of the war. The OPEC cut started pushing them back up, and they have gained about 20% in the past month.  

Now prices are around the same level where they started the year in 2023.