據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)3月7日報道，周二美國能源信息署（EIA）在其《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，2023年美國天然氣產(chǎn)量將升至歷史新高，而需求將下降。
據(jù)美國能源部統(tǒng)計部門預(yù)計，2023年干氣產(chǎn)量將從2022年創(chuàng)紀錄的980.9億立方英尺/日增至1006.7億立方英尺/日，2024年將增至1016.9億立方英尺/日。
EIA還預(yù)測，2023年和2024年的國內(nèi)天然氣消耗量將從2022年創(chuàng)紀錄的885.4億立方英尺/日降至864億立方英尺/日和860.6億立方英尺/日。
如果不出意外的話，2024年將是2015年以來產(chǎn)量首次連續(xù)四年增長。這也將是2006年以來需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。
EIA預(yù)計2023年第一季度的平均天然氣消耗量為990億立方英尺/天，是自2018年以來第一季度的最低值。
EIA表示，這是因為1月和2月的天氣是有記錄以來最熱的，使得取暖用天然氣的需求保持在較低水平。
2023年的最新預(yù)測高于EIA在2月份預(yù)測的1002.7億立方英尺/天的供應(yīng)，但低于2月份預(yù)測的870.4億立方英尺/天的需求。
該機構(gòu)預(yù)測，2023年美國液化天然氣日均出口量將達到120.7億立方英尺，2024年將達到127.3億立方英尺，高于2022年創(chuàng)紀錄的105.9億立方英尺。
2023年LNG的預(yù)測高于2月份EIA預(yù)測的117.8億立方英尺/天。
EIA預(yù)計，隨著天然氣需求的緩解和發(fā)電企業(yè)煤炭燃燒的減少，化石燃料的二氧化碳排放量將從2022年的49.76億噸下降到2023年的47.99億噸，然后隨著該國燃燒更多的石油，2024年將上升到48.29億噸。
郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)
原文如下：
EIA: US Natural Gas Output to Hit Record High in 2023, Demand to Fall
U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy projected dry gas production would rise to 100.67 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 and 101.69 Bcf/d in 2024 from a record 98.09 Bcf/d in 2022.
The EIA also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 86.40 Bcf/d in 2023 and 86.06 Bcf/d in 2024 from a record 88.54 Bcf/d in 2022.
If correct, 2024 would be the first time since 2015 that output rises for four years in a row. It would also be the first-time demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.
The EIA projected gas consumption would average 99 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2023, the least for any first quarter since 2018.
That is because the weather in January and February was among the warmest on record, the EIA said, keeping demand for gas for heating low.
The latest projections for 2023 were higher than the EIA's February forecast of 100.27 Bcf/d for supply, but lower than its February forecast of 87.04 Bcf/d for demand.
The agency forecast that average U.S. LNG exports would reach 12.07 Bcf/d in 2023 and 12.73 Bcf/d in 2024, up from a record 10.59 Bcf/d in 2022.
That 2023 LNG forecast was higher than the 11.78 Bcf/d EIA forecast in February.
As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, the EIA projected that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.976 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.799 billion tonnes in 2023 before rising to 4.829 billion tonnes in 2024 as the country burns more oil.
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