據(jù)鉆機地帶3月10日報道，根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）最新的《短期能源展望》（STEO），預(yù)計2023年和2024年全球液體燃料產(chǎn)量將超過需求。

在本周發(fā)布的STEO中，EIA預(yù)測今年全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.0147億桶/天，明年將達(dá)到1.032億桶/天。STEO預(yù)計2023年全球總消費量將達(dá)到1.009億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0269億桶/天。

按季度劃分，最新的STEO預(yù)計今年第一季度全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.0073億桶/天，第二季度為1.0128億桶/天，第三季度為1.0192億桶/天，第四季度為1.0193億桶/天，2024年第一季度為1.0227億桶/天，第二季度為1.0285億桶/天，第三季度為1.0343億桶/天，第四季度為1.0353億桶/天。

最新的STEO預(yù)計，2023年第一季度全球總消費量將為9994萬桶/天，第二季度為1.006億桶/天，第三季度為1.0147億桶/天、第四季度為1.0156億桶/天、明年第一季度為1.0204億桶/每天，第二季度為1.0231億桶/天，第三季度為1.0325億桶/天，第四季度為1.0314億桶/天。

EIA在3月份的STEO中概述稱，2022年全球石油總產(chǎn)量和消費量分別為9986萬桶/天和9942萬桶/天。將全球總產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)固在9995萬桶/天，全球總消費量為9936萬桶/天的2月份STEO中，EIA預(yù)計2023年全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.011億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0261億桶/天。預(yù)計2023年世界總消費量將達(dá)到1.0047億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0226億桶/天。

EIA在其最新的STEO中表示，“在全球范圍內(nèi)，我們預(yù)測的液體燃料消費量從2022年的日均9940萬桶增加到2023年的1.009億桶，比上個月的預(yù)期高出40萬桶”。

EIA補充道，較高的消費預(yù)測主要受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長上調(diào)的影響。預(yù)計印度的消費量將增加20萬桶/天，其他非經(jīng)合組織國家的消費量將日均增加50萬桶。

EIA繼續(xù)說道，非經(jīng)合組織國家的這一增長抵消了2023年經(jīng)合組織國家?guī)缀鯖]有消費增長。由于通貨膨脹的影響繼續(xù)限制國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和石油需求增長，經(jīng)合組織的消費量基本保持不變。我們預(yù)測，2024年全球液體燃料消耗量將增加180萬桶/天，非經(jīng)合組織國家將占160萬桶的增長。

EIA在最新的STEO中表示，2022年全球液體燃料日均產(chǎn)量約為1億桶，預(yù)測2023年和2024年日均產(chǎn)量將增加160萬桶。盡管上調(diào)了對全球液體燃料消費的預(yù)測，但仍預(yù)計，隨著全球石油產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)超過消費，全球石油庫存將在預(yù)測期內(nèi)持續(xù)增加。

國際能源署（IEA）在2月發(fā)布的最新石油市場報告中表示，2023年全球石油需求將增加200萬桶/天，達(dá)到1.019億桶/天。IEA在報告中指出，亞太地區(qū)將主導(dǎo)著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景。

在石油供應(yīng)方面，IEA在報告中表示，受非OPEC+的推動，預(yù)計2023年全球日產(chǎn)量將增長120萬桶。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Global Liquid Fuel Production to Outpace Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuel production to outpace demand in 2023 and 2024, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

In the STEO, which was released this week, the EIA projects that total world production will hit 101.47 million barrels per day this year and 103.02 million barrels per day next year. The STEO expects total world consumption to come in at 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.69 million barrels per day in 2024.

Broken down quarterly, the latest STEO expects total world production to hit 100.73 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 101.28 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.93 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.85 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.43 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.53 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The latest STEO anticipates that total world consumption will be 99.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 100.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 102.31 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.14 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s March STEO outlined that 2022 total world production and total world consumption was 99.86 million barrels per day and 99.42 million barrels per day, respectively. In its February STEO, which pegged total world production at 99.95 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 99.36 million barrels per day, the EIA projected that total world production would hit 101.10 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.61 million barrels per day in 2024. Total world consumption was projected to hit 100.47 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024 in that STEO.

“Globally, liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 100.9 million barrels per day in 2023, which is 0.4 million barrels per day higher than in last month’s outlook,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“The higher consumption forecast is primarily driven by upward revisions to global economic growth. We forecast consumption in India to increase by 0.2 million barrels per day and other non-OECD consumption to grow by 0.5 million barrels per day on average,” the EIA added.

“This growth in non-OECD countries counteracts almost no consumption growth among OECD countries in 2023. OECD consumption remains largely unchanged as the effects of inflation continue to limit GDP and oil demand growth. We forecast global liquids fuel consumption will grow by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OECD countries will account for 1.6 million barrels per day of the growth,” the EIA continued.

In the latest STEO, the EIA said “world liquid fuels production averaged about 100 million barrels per day in 2022, and we forecast it will rise by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2023 and 2024”.

“Despite upward revisions to increasing our forecast of global liquid fuels consumption, we still expect consistent global oil inventory builds over the forecast period as global oil production continues to outpace consumption,” the EIA stated in the STEO.

In its latest oil market report, which was released in February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand is set to rise by two million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.9 million barrels per day. The IEA noted in the report that the Asia-Pacific region dominates the growth outlook.

Looking at oil supply, the IEA stated in the report it expects global output to grow 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, “driven by non-OPEC+”.