美國能源信息署（EIA）：9月份美國原油日產量接近1230萬桶

盡管原油產量在增長，但增速只有2015-2016年油價暴跌后反彈時的一半

成本通脹和工人短缺繼續拖累美國原油產量增長

據油價網12月5日報道，盡管最近美國原油日產量達到了自今年5月全球疫情大流行低點低于1000萬桶以來的最高水平，但今年的原油產量增速已明顯放緩，原因是頁巖油產區陷入困境、勞動力短缺、供應鏈延誤以及供應成本高企，而生產商則專注于回報股東而不是鉆新井。美國9月原油日產量接近1230萬桶，這是美國能源信息署（EIA）上周在石油供應月報中公布的最新綜合數據。今年1月至9月，美國原油日產量平均為1173.3萬桶，美國政府目前對今年美國原油日產量的平均預測為1170萬桶。

盡管原油產量在增長，但增速只有2015-2016年油價暴跌后反彈時的一半，當時美國2018年和2019年每年的原油日產量飆升了100萬桶，甚至更多。 

美國那些原油產量增長迅猛的日子可能一去不復返了，因為生產商仍然將支出優先于鉆新井，而成本通脹和供應鏈問題甚至阻礙了那些愿意提高原油產量的企業。

9月份的原油日產量遠高于2020年5月的970萬桶，當時美國生產商在全球和美國原油需求在疫情大流行開始時大幅下降后削減了產量。

自那以后，原油產量有所增長，但與2014年或2018-2019年的增長速度不同。

根據路透社市場分析師約翰·肯普匯編的EIA數據，今年迄今，美國原油日產量以約60萬～70萬桶的年率增長。這還不到2015-2016年油價暴跌前后增長率的一半。  

根據《11月份短期能源展望》報告，美國能源信息署預計，今年美國原油日產量平均將為1170萬桶，2023年為1240萬桶，均將超過2019年創下的歷史新高。

盡管預計明年的原油產量將創紀錄，但到目前為止，美國能源情報署已多次下調了今年的原油產量。根據路透社的計算，最新的產量增長預期大幅下調了21%。  

在10月份的預測中，EIA已經將2023年的平均原油日產量估值從9月份的1260萬桶下調至1240萬桶。 

一些頁巖高管表示，美國的頁巖活動已經停滯。還有人指出，美國頁巖領域已不再是搖擺產油者，歐佩克已重新成為石油供應基本面的最重要驅動因素。

“頁巖被認為是一個搖擺不定的生產者，沙特和歐佩克一直在等待。現在，歐佩克真正回到了駕駛員的位置，他們是搖擺生產者。”美國赫斯公司首席執行官約翰·赫斯11月份在邁阿密的一次會議上如是表示。

在2020年被自然資源公司收購的Parsley能源公司的創始人布萊恩·謝菲爾德上周對路透社表示：“頁巖不能再成為一個搖擺生產者了。”

北達科他州礦產資源部主任林恩·赫爾姆斯10月份表示，“該州有數萬個工作崗位，但申請者并不多。進入2023年，我們將面臨嚴重的勞動力短缺，而且這種情況將持續下去。”  

在達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行第三季度能源調查中，石油和天然氣高管指出，成本、服務和供應的可獲得性是限制擴產的關鍵因素。

“供應成本大幅增加和交貨等待時間大幅延長”，一家勘探和生產公司的高管表示。另一位高管指出，“石油和天然氣行業活動已經停滯不前。我們應該鼓勵設備和材料制造商和供應商增加供應。”

這位高管補充稱：“持續兩位數的通脹不是一個健康行業的解決方案，項目正變得日益不經濟。”

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Growth To Disappoint In 2023

·     EIA: U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September.

·     Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump.

·     Cost inflation and a worker shortage continue to weigh on growth.

Despite the fact that U.S. crude oil production has recently hit the highest level since the pandemic low of below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2022, the growth rate has markedly slowed this year as the shale patch struggles, labor shortages, supply chain delays, and the high cost of supplies while producers focus on returns instead of drilling. U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September, the latest month with comprehensive data published by the EIA in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report last week. Between January and September, daily U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.733 million bpd, and 11.7 million bpd is the administration’s current projection for average U.S. crude oil production for this year. 

Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump when American oil production in 2018 and 2019 soared by 1 million bpd—and even more—per year.  

Those days of surging growth rates may be gone forever as producers continue to prioritize payouts over drilling, while cost inflation and supply chain issues hold back even those who are willing to boost output.  

The September production was much higher than the 9.7 million bpd seen in May 2020, when American producers curtailed output after global and U.S. oil demand plunged at the beginning of the pandemic. 

Since then, output has grown, but not at the same pace as in 2014 or 2018-2019. 

So far this year, U.S. oil production has risen at an annual rate of around 600,000 bpd-700,000 bpd, according to EIA data compiled by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. That’s less than half the growth rate just before and after the 2015-2016 oil price crash.  

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million bpd in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.  

Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.

In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.

Some shale executives say activity has flatlined. Others note that the U.S. shale patch is no longer the swing oil producer and OPEC has returned as the most important driver of oil supply fundamentals. 

“Shale was thought of as a swing producer, the Saudis and OPEC have waited this out. Now, really OPEC is back in the driver’s seat where they are the swing producer,” Hess Corp CEO John Hess said at a conference in Miami last month.

“Shale can’t come back to become a swing producer,” Bryan Sheffield, the founder of Parsley Energy which was bought by Pioneer Natural Resources in 2020, told Reuters last week. 

Lynn Helms, Director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, said in October, “There are tens of thousands of jobs open in the state and not very many applicants. We’re going to go into 2023 with a serious workforce shortage and that’s going to continue.”

In the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q3, oil and gas executives cited costs and the availability of services and supplies as key constraints to expansion. 

“The cost of supplies and wait times for delivery have increased substantially,” an executive from an exploration and production firm said, while another noted that “Oil and gas industry activity has flatlined. We should incentivize equipment and material manufacturers and suppliers to increase supplies.”

“Sustained double-digit inflation is not the solution for a healthy industry, and projects are becoming uneconomical,” the executive added.