一系列事件可能會決定今年12月份和明年初的油價走勢

12月4日的歐佩克+會議可能是石油的轉(zhuǎn)折點時刻

歐盟開始實施禁運，為全球石油市場增加了又一層不確定性

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)11月29日報道，未來幾天將是全球石油市場幾周來最關(guān)鍵的幾天，因為多個事件和因素可能同時決定今年年底及以后的原油價格趨勢。不確定性很高，這將引發(fā)原油價格的進一步波動。

最近的油價暴跌，布倫特原油價格在一周內(nèi)暴跌10%，加劇了人們對歐佩克+成員國可能在12月4日(周日)開會時考慮再次減產(chǎn)的猜測。 次日，也就是12月5日，歐盟禁令和相關(guān)的七國集團-歐盟原油價格上限將開始實施，具體的上限價格還有待商定和宣布。 

有這么多的不確定性，油價就像蹺蹺板一樣，隨著每一個謠言或報道而上下波動。 下周和之后的幾周可能會出現(xiàn)更多類似的情況，原油價格可能會出現(xiàn)波動，取決于歐佩克+會議、歐盟禁令和價格上限及對此的反應(yīng)。

歐佩克+將做什么?

油價的劇烈下跌始于11月21日，此前《華爾街日報》援引歐佩克代表的話報道稱，鑒于歐盟對海運原油進口的禁令，歐佩克成員國已非正式討論了是否需要在市場上增加原油供應(yīng)。 歐佩克最大產(chǎn)油國沙特阿拉伯和另一個有影響力的成員國阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國立即否認(rèn)了這一報道。

阿聯(lián)酋能源部長蘇海爾·馬茲魯伊11月21日表示：“阿聯(lián)酋否認(rèn)正在與其他歐佩克+成員國進行任何討論，以改變截至2023年底的上次減產(chǎn)協(xié)議?！?/p>

“我們?nèi)匀恢铝τ跉W佩克+的目標(biāo)，以平衡石油市場，并將支持實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的任何決定”，馬茲魯伊補充說。 

一周后，截至11月29日，越來越多的猜測稱，歐佩克+可能會在12月4日召開的會議上考慮減產(chǎn)，原因是經(jīng)濟放緩導(dǎo)致石油需求前景低于預(yù)期。  

考慮到油價在本周早些時候跌至去年12月以來的最低水平，歐佩克+可能確實會決定捍衛(wèi)80美元的原油價格下限，但要預(yù)測禁運將如何影響貿(mào)易流動和價格將是一項艱巨的任務(wù)。

不過，有關(guān)降息的猜測越來越多。11月29日早些時候，油價上漲了2%，因為市場參與者認(rèn)為可能會有新的降息，在油價最近幾天的暴跌之后，市場參與者可能會逢低買進。

彭博新聞社周一調(diào)查的多數(shù)交易商和分析師預(yù)計，歐佩克+將在11月開始每天削減200萬桶原油的基礎(chǔ)上，進一步削減其整體產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)。  

此外，石油期貨市場的結(jié)構(gòu)顯示出全球石油需求低迷和禁運前供應(yīng)充足的跡象?，F(xiàn)貨需求走弱，中東原油現(xiàn)貨溢價大幅下跌，可能促使歐佩克+在12月4日宣布新一輪減產(chǎn)。 

以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克產(chǎn)油國聯(lián)盟經(jīng)常否認(rèn)它們是在捍衛(wèi)某個油價，但它們總是說，它們關(guān)注的是市場基本面。 這些天，現(xiàn)貨市場顯示出疲軟的跡象，甚至在短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過剩的情況。

歐佩克第二大產(chǎn)油國伊拉克本周末暗示，歐佩克+12月4日會議將重點討論當(dāng)前的市場狀況和平衡。

法國興業(yè)銀行大宗商品研究與策略全球主管邁克爾·黑格對《華爾街日報》表示：“所有這些因素對石油市場都非常重要，它們可以極大地推動價格從一個方向轉(zhuǎn)向另一個方向?！?/p>

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Next Week Will Be Critical For Oil Markets

·   A number of events could determine the course of oil prices in December and early next year.

·   The OPEC+ meeting on December 4 could be a watershed moment for oil.

·   The beginning of the EU embargo on seaborne crude oil imports adds another layer of uncertainty in oil markets.

The next few days will be one of the most crucial for the oil market in weeks as several events and factors at the same time could determine the trend in prices by the end of this year and beyond.  While the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 and the beginning of the EU embargo onseaborne crude oil imports on the next day are likely to shape the course of the prices. Uncertainty is high, which would stoke further volatility in prices. 

The recent price rout, with Brent plunging by 10% in one week, intensified speculation that OPEC+ members could consider another production cut when they meet on Sunday, December 4. On the following day, December 5, the EU ban on imports of crude oil and the associated G7-EU price cap begins, with the exact price of the cap yet to be agreed on and announced. 

With so many uncertainties, oil prices are seesawing and jumping up or down on every rumor or report. The next week and the ones after that will likely see more of the same and prices could swing either way depending on the OPEC+ meeting, the EU ban and price cap on oil and the reaction to it, which, so far, is singlehandedly dragging down oil prices due to fears of weak demand. 

What Will OPEC+ Do?

A violent move down in prices began on November 21 after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing OPEC delegates, that the members of the cartel had informally discussed whether there would be a need for more oil on the market in view of the EU embargo on crude oil imports. The report was immediately denied by OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia and another influential member of the cartel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

“United Arab Emirates denied that it is engaging in any discussion with other OPEC+ members to change the last agreement, which is valid until the end of 2023,” its Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on November 21.

“We remain committed to OPEC+ aim to balance the oil market and will support any decision to achieve that goal,” the minister added. 

A week later, as of November 29, speculation is mounting that OPEC+ could consider a cut at its December 4 meeting due to gloomier-than-expected oil demand outlook. 

Considering that oil prices slumped to the lowest level since December 2021 earlier this week, OPEC+ could indeed decide to defend an $80 floor under prices, but it will have a difficult task in predicting how the embargo on crude will impact trade flows and prices. 

Still, speculation about a cut is gathering momentum. Early on Tuesday, oil prices rose by 2% as market participants weighed a possible new cut and were possibly buying the dip after the rout in recent days. 

Most traders and analysts polled by Bloomberg on Monday expect further OPEC+ cuts to its headline production target, on top of the 2 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction which began this month. 

Moreover, the structure of the oil futures market is showing signs of sluggish global oil demand and sufficient supply just ahead of the embargo. Weakening physical demand and plunging spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude could prompt OPEC+ to announce a fresh cut on Sunday. 

The alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by regularly denies it’s defending a certain oil price, but it always says that it looks at the market fundamentals. And these days, the physical market is showing signs of weakness and even an oversupply in the short term, considering the contango in both WTI and Brent front-month to second-month futures. 

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, signaled this weekend that the OPEC+ meeting would focus on the current market conditions and balances.  

“All of these things are so significant to the oil markets that they could whip prices from one direction to the other very significantly,” Michael Haigh, Global Head of Commodities Research & Strategy Societe Generale, told The Wall Street Journal.