據(jù)美國彭博新聞社2022年9月16日報(bào)道，由于天然氣和電力價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)迫使歐洲公用事業(yè)公司向政府尋求緊急資金，而大型貿(mào)易公司卻正在安然度過這場能源危機(jī)風(fēng)暴。  

歐洲地區(qū)的能源危機(jī)正在拉高油氣價(jià)格——僅9月5日一天，天然氣期貨價(jià)格就飆升了35%——令公用事業(yè)公司陷入危險(xiǎn)境地，因?yàn)橹辽?.5萬億美元的追加保證金要求吸走了該行業(yè)的現(xiàn)金。今年早些時(shí)候和2021年的類似價(jià)格飆升，給摩科瑞能源集團(tuán)有限公司、貢沃爾集團(tuán)有限公司、維多集團(tuán)、托克集團(tuán)和嘉能可公司等全球頂級大宗商品貿(mào)易公司的流動(dòng)資金帶來了壓力。  

盡管歐洲公用事業(yè)公司在追加保證金的要求下舉步維艱，引發(fā)了人們對“雷曼兄弟”式的危機(jī)蔓延至整個(gè)歐洲能源行業(yè)的擔(dān)憂，但這一次大型貿(mào)易公司的情況有所好轉(zhuǎn)。由于之前的壓力，它們已經(jīng)削減了交易量，并將更多業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到場外，緩解了保證金壓力，同時(shí)提高了信貸額度緩沖和股本，以便在需要時(shí)獲得更多貸款。

這一轉(zhuǎn)變使大量以私人為主的貿(mào)易公司處于如今利潤豐厚交易的中心，同時(shí)使它們能夠繼續(xù)向買家提供急需的天然氣和電力，往往能獲得令人瞠目的利潤。 

美國液化天然氣開發(fā)商Tellurian公司董事長謝里夫·蘇基在一次媒體采訪中表示：“我沒有看到任何一家大型貿(mào)易公司存在流動(dòng)資金問題，他們都設(shè)法找到了信貸額度和銀行貸款。”“他們現(xiàn)在賺的錢比以往任何時(shí)候都要多?！?/p>

過去一年油價(jià)飆升，給生產(chǎn)商、公用事業(yè)公司和大宗商品貿(mào)易商帶來了巨大的流動(dòng)性限制，引發(fā)了人們對更廣泛金融領(lǐng)域受到連鎖影響的擔(dān)憂。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織等機(jī)構(gòu)的官員已敦促監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)更密切地關(guān)注大宗商品交易，或就相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)出警告。 

過去一年，該領(lǐng)域市場行為的一個(gè)重大變化是衍生品和實(shí)物天然氣和電力交易量下降。 

據(jù)幾位要求不透露姓名的行業(yè)高管說，整個(gè)市場的對沖在減少，一些交易公司沒有對特定的現(xiàn)貨頭寸進(jìn)行對沖，而是通過與生產(chǎn)商和最終買家的固定價(jià)格交易來抵消價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他們說，由于融資額度的增長速度沒有價(jià)格增長速度那么快，天然氣實(shí)物交易量也有所下降。  

據(jù)交易商說，一些投資者還在購買價(jià)外看漲期權(quán)，這種期權(quán)會(huì)在價(jià)格極端波動(dòng)時(shí)支付，從而在價(jià)格飆升時(shí)降低保證金要求。另外，對于石油、金屬和谷物等大宗商品，交易公司也不會(huì)面臨同樣的追加保證金要求。

將更多的自由交易所業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到與銀行的場外交易中，是交易商獲得追加保證金要求貸款、并在價(jià)格波動(dòng)時(shí)維持頭寸的另一種方式。由于基準(zhǔn)天然氣期貨價(jià)格在過去一年上漲兩倍，天然氣利潤率飆升，這一點(diǎn)變得越來越重要。 

與此同時(shí)，大型獨(dú)立交易商的規(guī)模也在擴(kuò)大，將從波動(dòng)的大宗商品市場獲得的豐厚利潤投入股市，以便能夠獲得更多的銀行貸款。例如，貢沃爾和托克的股本在上半年至少上漲了19%。  

盡管交易商的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表杠桿率仍然很高，但銀行提供的數(shù)十億美元額外信貸為價(jià)格飆升提供了緩沖。 據(jù)知情人士透露，最近幾周，一些商家大量使用了銀行貸款。 

盡管高昂的價(jià)格意味著商人無法獲得與爆發(fā)軍事沖突前同等數(shù)量的電力和天然氣交易的信貸額度，但這仍足以賺取巨額利潤。 

咨詢公司埃森哲戰(zhàn)略主管穆克西特?阿什拉夫今年7月表示：“目前液化天然氣貨物產(chǎn)生的利潤非?？捎^?！薄?020年，一船LNG貨物的收益不到100萬美元。目前，我們談?wù)摰拿看琇NG貨物的利潤已超過1億美元?！?/p>

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下： 

Big Trading Houses Weathering Energy Crisis

As wild swings in gas and power prices force European utilities to tap governments for emergency cash, trading houses are weathering the storm.

The region’s energy crisis is whipsawing prices -- gas futures surged as much as 35% on Sept. 5 alone -- putting utilities in peril as margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion sucked cash from the sector. Similar price spikes earlier this year and in 2021 strained liquidity at top commodities merchants including Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., Gunvor Group Ltd, Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Glencore Plc.

While utilities are buckling under margin calls, sparking fears of Lehman Brothers-like contagion risk across Europe’s energy sector, major trading houses are in a better position this time around. Since previous stresses, they’ve cut trading volumes and moved more business off exchanges -- easing margin pressures -- while boosting credit-line buffers and equity to secure more loans if needed.

The shift has kept the clutch of largely private trading houses at the center of what are now highly lucrative trades, while enabling them to keep supplying much-needed gas and power to buyers, often for eye-watering profits.

“I have not seen any of the major trading houses have a liquidity issue, they all managed to find lines of credits and bank facilities,” Charif Souki, chairman of US LNG company Tellurian Inc., said in an interview. “And they are all making more money than they have ever made.”

Soaring prices over the past year put massive liquidity restraints on producers, utilities and traders, sparking worries about the knock-on impact on the broader financial world. Officials at places including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund have urged regulators to look closer at commodities trading or warned of associated risks.

A big change in merchants’ behavior in the past year has been smaller trading volumes of derivative and physical gas and power. 

The whole market is hedging less, and some trading houses aren’t placing hedges on specific physical positions and instead netting off price exposure through fixed-price deals with producers and end buyers, according to several executives who asked not to be identified. Physical gas volumes have also fallen because financing lines haven’t grown as fast as prices, they said.

Some are also buying out-of-the-money call options that pay out on extreme price moves, reducing margin requirements if prices spike, according to traders. Plus, trading houses aren’t facing the same kind of margin calls for commodities like oil, metals and grains.

Shifting more business off-exchange into over-the-counter deals with banks is another way traders are able to secure loans for margin calls and maintain positions when prices swing. That’s becoming more important as gas margins soar with benchmark futures tripling over the past year.

At the same time, major independent traders have got larger, pumping bumper profits from volatile commodities markets into equity to be able to secure bigger bank loans. For example, equity at Gunvor and Trafigura rose at least 19% in the first half.

While traders’ balance sheets remain highly leveraged, billions of dollars in extra credit from banks is providing a buffer for when prices spike. Some merchants have in recent weeks drawn heavily on facilities, according to people familiar with the matter.

Although high prices mean merchants don’t have the credit lines available to trade the same amount of power and gas as before the war, it’s enough to still make huge profits.

“The margins that LNG cargoes are generating these days are significant,” Muqsit Ashraf, who leads strategy at consultancy Accenture, said in July. “In 2020, an LNG cargo was generating less than $1 million. Right now, we are talking margins north of $100 million for every LNG cargo.”