由于世界各國努力減少碳排放，提高城市交通的便利性和成本，各國正在探索新的、令人興奮的出行方式
2020年，全球移動服務(wù)市場價值2600億美元，預(yù)計到2030年結(jié)束前將增加至6600億美元
新興市場在這方面有一個特別有趣的機會，可能會跳過傳統(tǒng)的交通方式，并擁抱更新的創(chuàng)新形式
據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)8月28日報道，由于全世界都在尋求減少碳排放、改善城市交通的便利性和成本，各國正在探索新的出行服務(wù)形式，從叫車服務(wù)和共享單車應(yīng)用程序，到電動汽車充電站和智能停車場。奧威曼論壇和加州大學(xué)伯克利分校交通研究所（ITS）最近對北美、歐洲和亞洲的13項服務(wù)進(jìn)行了調(diào)查研究，其結(jié)果顯示，全球移動服務(wù)市場將從2020年的2600億美元增長到2030年的6600億美元。
這為新興市場提供了一個更快速、更有效地跨越傳統(tǒng)交通模式的機會，與語音通信領(lǐng)域的類似發(fā)展相似，各國正在從固定電話轉(zhuǎn)向移動電話以及Skype或Zoom等基于云計算的會議工具。
地區(qū)增長趨勢
在奧威曼論壇—ITS報告中提到的3個地區(qū)中，歐洲地區(qū)預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)電動汽車和充電服務(wù)最強勁的擴張，這是由歐盟提出的到2030年前將汽車碳排放減少55%和到2035年前禁止使用化石燃料汽車的計劃所推動的。
據(jù)預(yù)測，未來十年，非洲地區(qū)的移動業(yè)務(wù)收入將從2020年的568億美元上升到1439億美元，占全球市場份額的20%。
與此同時，在北美地區(qū)，智能停車支付服務(wù)有望成為增長最快的領(lǐng)域，在此期間，移動支付收入將從663億美元增長到1753億美元，占全球市場份額的25%。
然而，或許最有趣的增長故事——也是新興市場最佳實踐的一個例子——是亞洲。亞洲已經(jīng)擁有一個強大的共享服務(wù)市場，將通信、商業(yè)和運輸結(jié)合在一個平臺上。其移動業(yè)務(wù)收入預(yù)計將從2020年的1339億美元增加到2030年的3370億美元，相當(dāng)于全球市場份額的50%左右。在這一增長中，汽車租賃預(yù)計占343億美元，網(wǎng)約車占1263億美元。
交通工具的未來
在全球范圍內(nèi)，改善大城市交通和減少碳排放的一個關(guān)鍵機會是通過電動汽車和充電站提供的汽車共享和叫車服務(wù)，根據(jù)彭博新能源財經(jīng)最近發(fā)布的《長期電動汽車展望》報告，全球電動汽車銷量預(yù)計到2025年前將增長兩倍。
汽車共享在新興市場的許多大城市已經(jīng)司空見慣。例如，由于人口眾多、城市空間密集以及注冊和擁有汽車的困難，印度成為網(wǎng)約車服務(wù)普及的領(lǐng)頭羊。印度是亞洲領(lǐng)先的拼車市場，特別是在通勤的It工作者中，并與第三方企業(yè)合作，以擴大汽車訂購市場。
在日本軟銀集團的支持下，印度叫車公司Ola Electric目前生產(chǎn)電動踏板車，并計劃在2024年前開始生產(chǎn)行駛里程為500公里的電動汽車。
就越南而言，三大網(wǎng)約車平臺——Grab、Gojek和Be——的競爭非常激烈，自2015年以來，其營收年增長率達(dá)到了30%～35%。預(yù)計越南網(wǎng)約車服務(wù)市場收入將從2021年的24億美元增至2025年前的40億美元。
其他地區(qū)交通工具共享
網(wǎng)約車也在其他地區(qū)取得了進(jìn)展。根據(jù)MarkNtel的一份報告，受城市化和私家車擁有成本高的推動，2021年至2026年間，拉丁美洲的汽車共享業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)計將實現(xiàn)26%的復(fù)合年增長率。
根據(jù)Business market Insight的數(shù)據(jù)，在中東和非洲，網(wǎng)約車服務(wù)市場的營收預(yù)計將從2021年的41億美元擴大到2028年的74億美元，年復(fù)合增長率為9%，其中網(wǎng)約車在2020年的新增長中占據(jù)相當(dāng)大的份額。
與此同時，在非洲，位于拉各斯的州政府于今年3月啟動了LagRide，作為其多式聯(lián)運發(fā)展藍(lán)圖的一部分。這個計劃旨在逐步淘汰舊的商業(yè)出租車，用新的車輛取代它們，并包括網(wǎng)約車的選項。
微出行機會
較小規(guī)模解決方案，如電動踏板車、輕便摩托車和共享摩托車——統(tǒng)稱為“微出行”——在新興市場也具有巨大的增長潛力。
根據(jù)奧威曼論壇—ITS報告，亞洲共享單車的收入預(yù)計將從2020年的62億美元增長到2030年的140億美元，而電動踏板車和輕便摩托車的收入預(yù)計同期將分別增長3億美元和11億美元。
自疫情暴發(fā)以來，許多通勤者和城市居民都將自行車作為公共交通的更安全選擇。在拉丁美洲，巴西的微出行初創(chuàng)企業(yè)Tembici占阿根廷、巴西和智利共享單車設(shè)備的72%。該公司報告稱，2020年的出行量增長34%，2021年的收入增長40%。
與此同時，拉各斯政府與AWA Bike合作，去年在尼日利亞推出了第一款共享單車應(yīng)用。這個1000輛自行車的試點項目是拉各斯自行車共享計劃的一部分，該計劃旨在為人們在這個巨型城市中出行提供更便宜、更環(huán)保的方式。
由于出行和微出行服務(wù)的范圍不斷擴大，不同地區(qū)、國家和城市將有潛力采用和擴大服務(wù)，以滿足其個人需求，為創(chuàng)新和投資提供細(xì)分市場機會。
李峻 編譯自 石油價格網(wǎng)
原文如下：
The Future Of Transportation In Emerging Markets
· As the world moves to reduce emissions and improve urban the ease and cost of urban transport, countries are exploring new and exciting forms of mobility.
· The global market for mobility services was worth $260 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow to be worth $660 billion by the end of the decade.
· Emerging markets have a particularly interesting opportunity here, potentially leapfrogging traditional transport modes and embracing new innovations.
As the world looks to reduce carbon emissions and improve the ease and cost of urban transport, countries are exploring new forms of mobility services, ranging from ride-hailing and bike-sharing apps, to electric-vehicle (EV) charging stations and smart parking. The global market for mobility services is set to grow from $260 billion in 2020 to $660 billion in 2030, according to a recent study from the Oliver Wyman Forum and the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS) at the University of California, Berkeley, which looked at 13 services across North America, Europe, and Asia.
This offers emerging markets an opportunity to leapfrog traditional transport modes more quickly and efficiently, mirroring similar developments in voice communications as countries shifted from landlines to mobile phones and cloud-based conferencing tools such as Skype or Zoom.
Regional growth trends
Europe is expected to see the strongest expansion in EVs and charging services of the three regions covered in the Oliver Wyman Forum-ITS report, driven by the EU’s proposal to cut carbon emissions from cars by 55% by 2030 and its plan to ban fossil fuel cars by 2035.
Mobility revenue on the continent is forecast to rise from $56.8 billion in 2020 to $143.9 billion over the decade, for a global market share of 20%.
In North America, meanwhile, smart parking payment services are expected to be the fastest-growing area, with mobility revenue to rise from $66.3 billion to $175.3 billion over the period, for a market share of around 25%.
However, perhaps the most interesting growth story – and an example of best practices for emerging markets – is Asia.
Asia already has a robust market for shared services that combine communication, commerce, and transport in a single platform. Its mobility revenue is projected to increase from $133.9 billion in 2020 to $337 billion in 2030, equivalent to a global market share of around 50%. Of this growth, car rentals are expected to account for $34.3 billion and ride-hailing $126.3 billion.
The future of vehicles
Globally, a key opportunity for improving transport and reducing emissions in large cities is through car-sharing and ride-hailing powered by EVs and charging stations, with global EV sales forecast to triple by 2025, according to BloombergNEF’s recently published “Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook”.
Vehicle sharing is already commonplace in many large cities in emerging markets.
India, for example, serves as a bellwether for the uptake of ride-hailing services due to its large population, dense urban spaces, and the difficulty of registering and owning cars.
It is the leading carpooling market in Asia, especially among commuting IT workers, and is partnering with third-party players to grow the car subscription market.
Backed by Japan’s Softbank Group, Indian ride-hailing company Ola Electric currently produces electric scooters and plans to start manufacturing EVs with a range of 500 km by 2024.
Vietnam, for its part, is seeing fierce competition among its three ride-hailing platforms – Grab, Gojek, and Be – with an annual growth rate in revenue of 30-35% since 2015. Ride-hailing service market revenue is expected to rise from $2.4bn in 2021 to $4bn by 2025.
Transport-sharing in other regions
Ride-hailing is also gaining ground in other regions.
Latin America is expected to post a 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in car-sharing between 2021 and 2026, according to a report from MarkNtel, fuelled by urbanization and the high cost of private vehicle ownership.
In the Middle East and Africa, for its part, the ride-hailing service market is expected to expand from $4.1 billion in revenue in 2021 to $7.4 billion in 2028, for a CAGR of 9%, according to Business Market Insight, with e-hailing comprising a substantial share of new growth in 2020.
Meanwhile, in Africa, the state government in Lagos launched LagRide in March as part of its multi-modal transport development blueprint. The scheme aims to phase out older commercial taxis and replace them with newer vehicles, and include an option for ride-sharing.
Micromobility opportunities
Smaller-scale solutions such as electric scooters, mopeds, and bike-sharing – collectively known as micromobility – also present significant growth potential in emerging markets.
Revenue from bike-sharing in Asia is expected to grow from $6.2 billion in 2020 to $14 billion in 2030, according to the Oliver Wyman Forum-ITS report, while electric scooters and mopeds are projected to post $300 million and $1.1 billion gains over the same period.
Many commuters and city dwellers have embraced bicycles as a safer alternative to public transport since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. In Latin America, Brazilian micromobility start-up Tembici, which accounts for 72% of bike-sharing equipment in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, reported a 34% increase in trip volume in 2020 and a 40% jump in revenue in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Lagos government, in partnership with AWA Bike, launched the first bike-sharing app in Nigeria last year. The 1000-bike pilot project is part of the Lagos Bike Share Scheme, which seeks to offer cheaper and more eco-friendly ways for people to move around the mega-city.
As the range and uptake of mobility and micromobility services continues to grow, different regions, countries, and cities will have the potential to adopt and scale services to fit their individual needs, offering niche opportunities for innovation and investment.
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