據(jù)美國彭博新聞社2022年7月5日報道，世界最大投資銀行及金融機構之一的美國花旗集團7月5日警告說，如果出現(xiàn)嚴重影響需求的經(jīng)濟衰退，到今年年底前原油價格可能暴跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底前進一步跌至每桶45美元。 

花旗集團包括Francesco Martoccia和Ed Morse在內的分析師在一份報告中稱，這一前景是基于歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國沒有任何干預，以及石油投資減少。全球原油基準布倫特原油最近的交易價格接近每桶113美元。

今年，在2月爆發(fā)軍事沖突之后，油價飆升。由于各國央行加息和衰退風險上升，銀行如今正試圖將其進程拖到2023年。花旗集團的油價展望將當前的能源市場與上世紀70年代的危機進行了比較。目前，世行經(jīng)濟學家預計美國不會陷入經(jīng)濟衰退。 

花旗集團分析師在7月5日的報告中表示：“就石油而言，歷史證據(jù)表明，只有在全球最嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退中，石油需求才會出現(xiàn)負值。”“但在所有經(jīng)濟衰退中，油價都會跌至接近邊際成本。”

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Citi Warns Oil May Collapse

Crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to $45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits, Citigroup Inc. has warned.

That outlook is based on an absence of any intervention by OPEC+ producers and a decline in oil investments, analysts including Francesco Martoccia and Ed Morse said in a report. Brent, the global crude benchmark, last traded near $113 a barrel.

Oil has soared this year following the war, and banks are now trying to chart its course into 2023 as central banks raise interest rates and recessionary risks mount. Citi’s outlook compared the current energy market with crises of the 1970s. At present, the bank’s economists do not expect the US to dip into recession.

“For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions,” the Citi analysts said in the July 5 note. “But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.”