據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年5月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于歐佩克+備用產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)下降到2020年4月以來(lái)的最低水平，歐洲、北美洲和亞洲的經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)的原油庫(kù)存下降到了危險(xiǎn)的低點(diǎn)。 

這是根據(jù)周一美國(guó)銀行（BofA）發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新的全球研究報(bào)告得出的結(jié)論。 報(bào)告還強(qiáng)調(diào)，“由于市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入美國(guó)駕駛旺季”，中間餾分油和汽油的成品油庫(kù)存已降至“危險(xiǎn)水平”。 

美銀全球研究報(bào)告稱(chēng)：“因此，精煉原油裂解利潤(rùn)率最近飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，這加劇了整個(gè)石油行業(yè)的波動(dòng)。”

報(bào)告補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“最令人擔(dān)憂的是，經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)擁有的戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)很低，未來(lái)還將大幅下降，令消費(fèi)者面臨未來(lái)任何負(fù)面供應(yīng)沖擊。”

美銀全球研究報(bào)告對(duì)其油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)警告，但也強(qiáng)調(diào)了低庫(kù)存水平在推高油價(jià)方面的作用。  

報(bào)告說(shuō)：“隨著貨幣政策緊縮和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，全球石油消費(fèi)的低迷是我們預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油2022年和2023年的平均每桶102美元的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，更多石油出口到西方國(guó)家以外的國(guó)家是另一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

報(bào)告補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，然而，低庫(kù)存水平、有限的備用產(chǎn)能，以及新興市場(chǎng)疫情后的需求復(fù)蘇，應(yīng)會(huì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月推動(dòng)布倫特原油價(jià)格突破每桶120美元。

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油的價(jià)格為每桶112.29美元。今年3月7日(123.21美元/桶)、8日(127.98美元/桶)、25日(12.65美元/桶)等北海產(chǎn)布倫特原油的價(jià)格多次突破了120美元/桶。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Oil Inventories Down to Dangerously Low Point

Crude oil inventories are down to a dangerously low point across Europe, North America, and OECD Asia just as OPEC+ spare production capacity has dwindled to the lowest levels since April 2020.

That’s according to a new BofA Global Research report, which was sent to Rigzone on Monday. The report also highlighted that petroleum product inventories have fallen to “precarious levels” for middle distillates and gasoline “as the market heads into the peak of the U.S. driving season”.

“As a result, refined petroleum cracks have recently spiked to record levels, contributing to boost volatility across the oil complex,” the BofA Global Research report stated.

“Most worryingly, strategic oil barrels held by OECD governments are already low and set to decline steeply going forward, leaving consumers exposed to any future negative supply shock,” the report added.

The BofA Global Research report warned of risks to BofA Global Research’s oil price forecasts, but also highlighted the role of low inventory levels in pushing prices higher.

“With monetary policy tightening and recession, a downturn in global oil consumption is a risk to our projected Brent average of $102 per barrel for 2022 and 2023,” the report stated, adding that higher petroleum exports to countries outside the West is another risk to watch.

“However, low inventory levels, limited spare capacity, and a post pandemic demand recovery in EMs should combine to press Brent above $120 per barrel over the coming months,” the report added.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $112.29 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions this year, including on March 7 ($123.21 per barrel), March 8 ($127.98 per barrel), and March 25 ($12.65 per barrel).