到2023年前，每桶100美元的油價可能引發美國致密油日產量增加220萬桶  

美國的核心產油區(二疊紀、鷹福特、奈厄布拉勒、巴肯和阿納達科盆地)在去年第四季度的致密油日產量約為770萬桶  

由于美國以外地區的供應仍然緊張，高油價正在鼓勵運營商增加致密油產量 

據美國油價網報道，挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）2月14日預測，在需求增長和供應持續緊張的驅動下，在油價維持在每桶100美元左右或以上的超級周期中，美國的致密油日產量有望增加多達220萬桶。  

美國的核心產油區——二疊紀盆地、鷹福特盆地、奈厄布拉勒盆地、巴肯盆地和阿納達科盆地——在去年第四季度的致密油日產量約為770萬桶，繼續呈上升趨勢，但仍低于疫情大流行前的水平。 預計到今年第二季度，這些核心產油區的致密油日產量將超過2019年810萬桶的最高水平，如果出現超級周期，致密油產量將進一步擴大。  

如果油價每桶達到并保持在100美元左右，到2023年第四季度，這些核心產油區的致密油日總產量將達到990萬桶，比去年同期日增220萬桶。

由于來自美國以外地區的供應仍然緊張，高油價正在鼓勵運營商增加致密油產量。全球對Covid-19的擔憂正在減弱，各國正在取消或放松限制，導致目前供應難以滿足全球石油需求激增。 此外，主要石油出口國的地緣政治不確定性正在惡化，在供應本已有限的情況下，有可能擾亂貿易流動。

美國這些核心產油區的非常規油氣總產量(包括石油、天然氣和天然氣液體)已經恢復到疫情爆發前的水平，去年第四季度的日總產量約為1560萬桶油當量。非常規油氣日總產量預計將繼續攀升，并在今年3月底達到1600萬桶油當量的歷史最高水平。  

“雖然高油價在理論上會引發致密油產量的激增，但嚴重的供應鏈瓶頸、價格信號及其對生產的影響之間的滯后、以及冬季天氣造成的供應中斷，致密油產量都將放緩增長。 此外，預計現貨沙子價格將升至每噸50- 70美元，這是頁巖行業現代史上聞所未聞的水平，這將打擊運營商的錢包。”

檢查可能性

在不同的情景下，油價區間在每桶70美元至100美元之間，將導致今年第四季度產量大幅飆升，而長時間運行的每桶90 - 100美元會進一步提高從今年第二季度起已經恢復鉆機活動。 在油價每桶40美元的情景下，到2024年前，產量將恢復到去年的水平。

展望2023年以后，每桶100美元的西得克薩斯中質原油將使頁巖行業從去年第四季度到2025年第四季度年均日增長約96萬桶。 每桶70美元的油價仍將允許一個可持續的增長周期，但平均年增長速度將限制在約每天56萬桶。  

在每桶100美元的情景下，在私營運營商和公共獨立生產商的推動下，將從今年第二季度開始逐步部署更多的鉆機。 公共勘探和生產公司的經營理念正在發生根本性的轉變，許多公司響應了全球增加致密油產量的號召。 埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司最近就其雄心勃勃的二疊紀盆地增產計劃進行了溝通，證實了這一趨勢。  

現在，二疊紀盆地和其他一些多產盆地發生了明顯的變化，行業情緒再次高漲。 各種各樣的供應鏈瓶頸可能會推遲活動的上升，但它們不會成為一個完全的障礙，因為頁巖行業已經反復證明，所有這些瓶頸都會得到及時解決。

這些預測涵蓋了美國本土48個州(不包括墨西哥灣)核心致密產油區的非常規活動。 至于美國大陸(不包括墨西哥灣)頁巖氣地區常規生產和凝析油的其它地區， 石油日產量最近穩定在170萬- 180萬桶范圍內。 在此情景下，疫情爆發前的美國大陸石油產量將有望在今年末或明年初達到峰值。  

在每桶70美元的情景下，美國大陸石油日供應量到2025年底將趨于1200萬桶，而如果油價持續保持在每桶100美元，美國大陸石油日產量將在未來4年里增長至1350萬桶。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

$100 Oil Could Trigger Burst In Shale Oil Production

·     Oil at $100 could trigger an additional 2.2 million bpd of US tight oil output by 2023.

·     Tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd.

·     High oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight.

Up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of US tight oil could be unleashed in the event of a supercycle – with oil prices remaining around or above $100 per barrel – driven by growing demand and continued supply tightness, Rystad Energy predicts.

Tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd, continuing an upward trend but short of the pre-pandemic levels. Production in these regions is expected to surpass the 2019 high of 8.1 million bpd by the second quarter of this year and expand further if a supercycle materializes.

If oil prices reach and remain around $100 per barrel, total production from these core regions would hit 9.9 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2023, marking a 2.2 million bpd surge from the same quarter in 2021.

High oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight. Global Covid-19 concerns are waning and countries are removing or relaxing restrictions, causing a surge in demand for oil that the current supply would struggle to meet. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty in major exporting countries is worsening, threatening to disrupt trade flows amid already limited availability.

Total unconventional output – including oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) – from these core US oil regions has already returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, totaling around 15.6 million boepd in the fourth quarter of 2021. Total output is expected to keep climbing and reach an all-time high of more than 16 million boepd by the end of March this year.

“Although high prices would, in theory, trigger a burst in tight oil production, acute supply chain bottlenecks, a lag between price signals and its impact on production, and winter weather-related disruptions will slow growth. Added to this are expectations that spot sand prices will rise to a $50-$70 per ton range – a level unheard of in the industry’s modern history – which will hit operators’ wallets,” says Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.

Examining the possibilities

Looking at different scenarios, a price range between $70 and $100 per barrel would lead to a significant upsurge in output in the fourth quarter of 2022, while a prolonged run of $90-$100 per barrel would result in a further increase to the already recovering rig activity from the second quarter of 2022. In a $40 scenario, production will return to 2021 levels by 2024.

Looking beyond 2023, $100 WTI will allow the industry to average at an annual growth of about 960,000 bpd, from the fourth quarter of 2021 through to the fourth quarter of 2025. A $70 world will still allow for a sustainable growth cycle, but the average annual pace will be limited to about 560,000 bpd.

In a $100 per barrel scenario, a gradual deployment of additional rigs would materialize from the second quarter of this year, driven by both private operators and public independent producers. A fundamental shift in the operational philosophy of public E&Ps is emerging, with many responding to a global call on tight oil growth. Recent communications from ExxonMobil and Chevron on their ambitious Permian growth plans reaffirms this trend.

There is a marked change happening now in the Permian and some other basins, with industry sentiment becoming buoyant again. Various supply chain bottlenecks might delay the uptick in activity, but they will not act as a complete showstopper as the industry has repeatedly demonstrated that all such bottlenecks get resolved in time.

These projections cover unconventional activity in core tight oil regions of all the lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico. For the rest of the lower 48 conventional production and condensate in shale gas regions, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, oil output has recently stabilized in the 1.7 million-1.8 million-bpd range and can even recover towards 1.9 million bpd over the next four years in a favorable price environment amid an increase in infill drilling in mature fields and a robust condensate production outlook in wet and liquids-rich parts of select gas basins. Against this backdrop, the pre-Covid-19 lower 48 oil production peak of 10.4 million bpd would be within reach already by late-2022 or early-2023.