據世界石油2月18日消息稱，盡管原油價格已逼近每桶100美元，但美國石油產量要到明年晚些時候才能達到疫情前的高點，因通貨膨脹和產量停滯阻礙了石油行業的復蘇。

這是行業咨詢公司ESAI分析師伊麗莎白·墨菲的說法。雖然墨菲估計，美國今年的日產量將增加90萬桶，但她指出，成本上升和鉆井問題是阻礙經濟進一步增長的因素。

新鉆井數量跟不上完井數量，而完井是石油開始流動之前的最后一步。墨菲在一次網絡研討會上表示，保持新鉆井的良好記錄對于維持和提高產量是必要的。

她說，服務業的價格上漲也是一個問題，這可能會抑制產量增長。她指出，在世界上石油產量最多的二疊紀盆地，用于水力壓裂的砂的成本已經增加了兩倍。她說，其他可能減緩供應復蘇的因素包括更多的監管規定，如甲烷法規、專利費上漲以及行業進一步整合。

自去年12月初以來，原油價格已飆升40%，達到每桶90美元以上。隨著上周美國鉆井公司增加的鉆機數量達到四年來的最高水平，許多生產商都渴望利用油價上漲的機會。本周，美國政府報告稱，二疊紀盆地的石油供應量連續三個月達到歷史最高水平。但即便如此，由于一些生產限制，全球原油供應仍無法滿足強勁的需求。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

U.S. oil production won't reach pre-Covid high until 2023, analyst says

Even as crude prices hurtle toward $100 a barrel, U.S. oil output won’t be able to reach its pre-pandemic high until later next year as inflation and production logjams present obstacles to the industry’s recovery.

That’s according to Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at industry consultant ESAI. While Murphy estimates that the U.S. is set to add 900,000 barrels a day of supply this year, she pointed to rising costs and issues with drilling as factors that are holding back more growth. 

New drilling isn’t keeping up with number of well completions, the final step before oil begins flowing. Keeping a good log of newly drilled wells is necessary to maintain and grow production, Murphy said during a webinar. 

Service-sector price inflation is also an issue, and one that could restrain production growth, she said, noting that the cost of sand for fracking purposes has tripled in the Permian basin, the world’s most prolific oil patch. Other factors that could slow supply recovery include more regulations such as methane rules, rising royalty rates and further industry consolidation, she said. 

Crude prices have surged 40% since early December to more than $90 a barrel. Many producers have been eager to take advantage of the rally, with U.S. drillers adding the most rigs in four years last week. This week, the U.S. government reported that the Permian reached record volumes of oil supply for three consecutive months. But even with that expansion, global crude supplies aren’t keeping up with robust demand amid some production limitations.