據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站1月27日消息 Carbon Tracker在本周的一份新報(bào)告中稱，石油公司可能陷入價(jià)值5000億美元的資產(chǎn)陷阱。

該報(bào)告表示：“飆升的油價(jià)可能會(huì)誘使石油和天然氣公司做出長(zhǎng)期投資決策，讓股東付出高昂代價(jià)，但對(duì)能源轉(zhuǎn)型采取謹(jǐn)慎的有管理的方式，最有助于保護(hù)股東價(jià)值，幫助社會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)。”

作者們注意到了最近油價(jià)的飆升，但警告大型石油公司不要放任其發(fā)展，因?yàn)楦鲊?guó)政府做出的氣候承諾，以及假定電動(dòng)汽車的廣泛采用，將很快扭轉(zhuǎn)石油需求增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。

與此同時(shí)，礦業(yè)和大宗商品行業(yè)提醒稱，金屬和礦產(chǎn)的價(jià)格正在上漲，這兩種產(chǎn)品對(duì)太陽能、風(fēng)能和電動(dòng)汽車都至關(guān)重要。例如，在最近在沙特阿拉伯舉行的未來礦產(chǎn)論壇上，巴里克公司首席執(zhí)行官馬克·布里斯托預(yù)測(cè)，銅市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)短缺。Hallgarten & Company策略師兼負(fù)責(zé)人克里斯托弗·埃克萊斯頓則表示，金屬和礦產(chǎn)價(jià)格正處于穩(wěn)定的上升軌道，不會(huì)恢復(fù)。

原材料成本的上漲已經(jīng)開始影響可再生能源和電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)，使它們的產(chǎn)品更加昂貴，并減少了愿意轉(zhuǎn)向低碳化石燃料替代品的人數(shù)。分析人士稱，這也危及了能源轉(zhuǎn)型的進(jìn)展，大幅提高了價(jià)格。

即便如此，據(jù)Carbon Tracker報(bào)告的主要作者稱，企業(yè)可能會(huì)將高油價(jià)視為一個(gè)巨大的霓虹燈似信號(hào)，指向?qū)Ω喙?yīng)的投資。然而，如果他們?cè)谛枨箝_始下降的時(shí)候繼續(xù)進(jìn)行輸送石油的項(xiàng)目，這可能會(huì)成為一個(gè)噩夢(mèng)。隨著價(jià)格下跌，股東可能會(huì)面臨災(zāi)難性的價(jià)值影響。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Higher Oil Prices Could Trigger $500 Billion In Stranded Assets

Oil companies could get caught in a stranded asset trap worth $500 billion, environmental think tank Carbon Tracker said in a new report this week.

According to the report, “Surging oil prices may tempt oil and gas companies to make long-term investment decisions that cost shareholders dearly, but a cautious “managed” approach to the energy transition would do most to preserve shareholder value and help society achieve climate goals.”

The authors noted the recent surge in oil prices but cautioned Big Oil about letting it go to their heads because climate commitments made by governments and the assumed wider adoption of EVs will soon reverse the oil demand growth trend.

At the same time, however, the mining and commodities industries are warning of rising prices for metals and minerals, both essential for solar, wind, and electric cars. At the recent Future Minerals Forum in Saudi Arabia, for instance, Barrick’s CEO Mark Bristow projected that the copper market could swing into a shortage, while Christopher Ecclestone, strategist and principal at Hallgarten & Company, said metals and minerals prices are on a stable upward trajectory and they are not coming back.

The rising costs of raw materials have already begun to affect the renewable energy and EV industry, making their products costlier and reducing the number of people willing to switch to a lower-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. It has also jeopardized the progress of the energy transition, according to analysts, raising the price tag substantially.

Even so, according to the lead author of the Carbon Tracker report, “Companies may see high prices as a huge neon sign pointing towards investment in more supply. However, this could become a nightmare scenario if they go ahead with projects which deliver oil around the time that demand starts to decline. Shareholders could face catastrophic levels of value destruction as prices fall.”

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