在對石油和天然氣行業冷眼旁觀多年后，華爾街終于對石油和天然氣股票熱心起來。

地緣政治環境可能會推動油價進一步上漲。

美國石油生產商正在努力提高股東價值，并取得了巨大的回報。

在經歷了多年的行業低迷之后，華爾街對能源的看法越來越積極，越來越多的分析師樂觀表示，最糟糕的情況可能是出現在了過去。

據今日油價1月25日報道，Evercore ISI的斯蒂芬·理查森（Stephen Richardson）是最新加入牛市陣營的華爾街分析師。

理查森表示，石油漲勢得到了各種“催化劑”的支持，包括奧密克戎病毒浪潮影響的減弱，以及緊張的地緣政治因素影響。

同時，摩根士丹利石油策略師Martijn Rats將2022年第三季度布倫特油價預測上調至每桶100美元，此前高盛在本周早些時候上調至每桶105美元。

那么，為什么是每桶100美元？摩根士丹利認為100美元/桶是石油需求增長開始放緩的水平，并指出，在2011年-2014年期間，石油相當于全球GDP的4.5%，按照當前GDP和消費水平，布倫特原油價格需要平均每桶110美元才能達到全球GDP相同 “份額”。

那么，這些分析師推薦哪些石油和天然氣股票呢？

理查森喜歡西方石油公司、康菲石油公司和德文公司，而GS喜歡西方石油公司、阿帕奇公司、德文公司、安泰羅（Antero）和西南能源(Southwestern Energy)，但將德文公司減至持有，因為其業績大幅超出預期，估值上升空間減少。在過去一年中，德文股價上漲了162%。

#1. 康菲石油公司

康菲石油公司是一家頂級頁巖企業，主要從事常規油藏和致密油藏、頁巖氣、重油、液化天然氣、油砂和其他生產業務。

2021年，美國銀行將該公司的股票從 “中性”升級為 “買入”，目標價為67美元，稱該公司為 “現金機器”，具有加速回報的潛力。

據美銀分析師道格-萊格特（Doug Leggate）稱，康菲公司看起來準備以比任何“純粹”的勘探和開采速度，或比石油大公司更早、更顯著的速度加快現金回報。

Leggate COP股價已經回落到更有吸引力的水平，但與布倫特石油在接近每桶70美元時的宏觀前景不同。但最重要的是，這位美國銀行分析師認為，康菲面臨的長期石油復蘇風險很大。

美國銀行并不是華爾街唯一一個對康菲贊不絕口的投機者。

雷蒙德-詹姆斯在給客戶的一份報告中表示，該公司股價低估了這家石油和天然氣公司準備產生的大量現金。

好吧，看來分析師的判斷是正確的，12月，康菲石油公布了其2022年的初步計劃，強調了一個三步走計劃，該公司可能在2022年向投資者返還約70億美元現金。

康菲提供了一個重新設計的股東回報計劃，包括24億美元的基本股息（市值的2.5%）；二季度的可變股息為20c/s（折合成年化利率為當前市值的1.1%）；35億美元的股票回購（占市值的3.7%）。

如果持續下去，這將為康菲股東提供7.3%的派息，而產量幾乎沒有增長。康菲今年的資本支出將增加36%（按二疊紀收購調整后為22%），但產量僅有3%的增長。實際上，康菲將在未來一年向投資者返還約70億美元的現金。 

該公司還在進行明智的投資，包括以95億美元全現金收購荷蘭皇家殼牌公司二疊紀盆地資產，還在綠色項目上投資約2億美元，以減少其碳排放。

今年到目前為止，康菲的股價已經上漲了14.6%，52周以來累計上漲了91.5%。

#2.德文能源公司

美國銀行分析師Doug Leggate對能源行業的評級是超額的，他建議投資者關注那些有潛力通過合并或其他降低成本措施來增長自由現金流的石油公司，他提到了德文能源公司、先鋒自然資源公司和依歐格資源公司。

德文的股票一直是表現最好的能源股之一，這得益于強勁的盈利和持續的成本控制，包括可變的股息結構。

2021年與WPX能源公司合并后，該公司宣布了固定加浮動的股息。德文公司采用了可變股息結構，這一點在華爾街很受歡迎。穩定的部分是無關緊要的，最近的收益率不到1%。但如果最新的可轉換派息是未來主要部分，股東們可能會得到接近7%的總體收益。

德文在1季度支付了0.11美元/股的常規股息和0.24美元/股的可變股息，意味著年化收益率為5.5%。此外，該公司預測，如果目前趨勢保持不變，2021年的股息收益率將超過7%，這說明其致力于在現金流允許的情況下以股息的形式向股東返還更多資本。

一些華爾街分析師指出，到年底，德文的股息收益率有可能高達8%。畢竟，這家公司確實在涌現現金，2021年第三季度的自由現金流同比增長了8倍，達到11億美元。德文公司去年近一半的價格對沖將在今年得到回報，這可能會使自由現金流再一次得到提升。

然而，正如高盛所指出的那樣，在瘋狂的反彈之后，德文的價格已經相當高了，這可能會限制短期收益。德文的市盈率（TTM）為27.6，幾乎是能源行業10.9的三倍。

#3. 阿帕奇公司

近日，美國阿帕奇公司與埃及政府簽署協議，將在埃及西部沙漠地區投資至少35億美元進行研究、開發和生產，該公司股價隨之飆升。

據阿帕奇管理層稱，該協議將90%的總產量整合到一個單一的特許權中，還將現有的開發租賃條款更新為20年。

就在12月，埃及議會批準了一項協議，對其與政府簽訂的生產分成合同進行現代化和整合。

2021年，該公司宣布在其140萬英畝的蘇里南近海地塊上有重大石油發現，該地塊毗鄰埃克森美孚公司的歷史性發現。阿帕奇表示，在位于多產的圭亞那-蘇里南盆地的Kwaskwasi-1井取得了世界級的發現，它在那里遇到了278米（912英尺）的凈油和揮發性石油/天然氣凝析油層。

美銀美林將蘇里南的前景吹捧為“潛在的游戲規則改變者”。

美銀美林資深石油行業分析師Doug Leggate表示，蘇里南有可能重新啟動投資計劃。

阿帕奇股價今年以來上漲了11.9%，12個月內上漲了80.9%。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Wall Street’s Favorite Oil Stocks For 2022

Wall Street is finally warming up to oil and gas stocks after years of turning a cold shoulder on the industry.

A wave of bullish geopolitical circumstances could push oil prices even higher.

U.S. oil producers are working hard to bolster shareholder value, and its paying off in a big way. 

After souring on the sector for years, Wall Street is increasingly turning positive on energy with a growing number of analysts expressing optimism that the worst could be in the rearview mirror.

Evercore ISI's Stephen Richardson is the latest Wall Street analyst to join the bull camp.

Richardson says the oil rally is supported by a smorgasbord of catalysts, including a waning omicron wave; political unrest in Libya, protests in Kazakhstan, sabotage in Nigeria as well as the threat of war between Russia, a major energy producer, and Ukraine, a major energy transit hub.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley oil strategist Martijn Rats has raised Brent oil price forecast to $100 for Q3 2022, following Goldman Sachs' upgrade to $105 earlier in the week.

So why $100? Morgan Stanley thinks $100/b is the level at which oil demand growth begins to slow, noting that in the 2011-2014 time period oil equated to 4.5% of global GDP, at today's GDP and consumption levels, Brent would need to average $110 to achieve the same 'share' of global GDP.

So what oil and gas stocks do these analysts recommend?

Richardson likes Occidental (NYSE: OXY), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) while GS likes Occidental, Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA), Antero (NYSE:AR) and Southwestern (NYSE:SWN) but has cut Devon to hold on the back of sharp outperformance and reduced valuation upside. DVN shares are up 162% over the past one year.

Here are our own picks based on these recent recommendations.

#1. ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is a top shale player that primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations.

Last year, Bank of America upgraded COP shares to Buy from Neutral with a $67 price target, calling the company a "cash machine" with the potential for accelerated returns.

According to BofA analyst Doug Leggate, Conoco looks "poised to accelerate cash returns at an earlier and more significant pace than any 'pure-play' E&P or oil major."

Leggate COP shares have pulled back to more attractive levels "but with a different macro outlook from when [Brent] oil peaked close to $70."

But best of all, the BofA analyst believes COP is highly exposed to a longer-term oil recovery.

But BofA is not the only Wall Street punter that's gushing about COP.

In a note to clients, Raymond James says the company's stock price is undervaluing the flood of cash the oil and gas company is poised to generate.

Well, it appears the analysts were right on the money: last month, Conoco unveiled its preliminary plans for 2022, highlighting a three-tiered program that could see the company return around $7 billion in cash to investors in 2022.

COP provides a re-engineered shareholder return plan with:

1) base dividend of $2.4B (2.5% of market cap) 

2) Variable dividend of 20c/s in the coming quarter (1.1% of current market cap, annualized)

3) Share buyback of $3.5B (3.7% of market cap)

If sustained, this positions COP shareholders for a 7.3% payout with little production growth. COP is penciling in a 36% increase in capex for the year (22% adjusting for the Permian purchase) but a mere 3% production growth. In effect, Conoco is set to return around $7 billion in cash to investors over the coming year. 

The company is also making smart investments, including its $9.5 billion all-cash acquisition of Royal Dutch Shell's (NYSE:RDS.A) Permian Basin assets and also investing about $200 million in green projects to reduce its carbon emissions. 

COP shares have returned 14.6% so far this year and are up 91.5% over 52 weeks.

#2. Devon BofA analyst Doug Leggate has an overweight rating on the energy sector and has advised investors to focus on Oil companies with the potential to grow their free cash flows through consolidations or other cost reduction measures, naming Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG). 

DVN stock has been one of the best-performing energy stocks thanks to strong earnings and continuing cost discipline, including a variable dividend structure.

Following the merger with WPX Energy last year, the company announced fixed-plus-variable dividends. Devon has adopted a variable dividend structure—something that has gone down well with Wall Street. The stable portion is indifferent, recently yielding less than 1%. But if the latest convertible payout is a sign of the future, shareholders could receive closer to 7% overall.

Devon paid an $0.11/share regular dividend and a $0.24/share variable dividend during the quarter, implying an annualized 5.5% yield. Further, the company has forecast a dividend yield of more than 7% for 2021 if current trends hold, illustrating its commitment to return more capital to shareholders in the form of dividends whenever cash flows permit.

Some Wall Street analysts have pointed to the potential for DVN to sport a dividend yield of as high as 8% by year-end. After all, this company really is gushing cash, with free cash flow growing eight-fold year over year to $1.1 billion during the third quarter of last year. Nearly half of Devon's price hedging from last year will pay off this year, which could give free cash flow another goose.

However, as Goldman Sachs has noted, DVN has grown quite pricey after the crazy rally, which could limit near-term gains. Devon sports a P/E Ratio (TTM) of 27.6, nearly triple the energy sector's 10.9 reading.

#3. APA Corp.

Shares of APA Corp. (NYSE:APA) have been surging after the company signed an agreement with the Egyptian government to invest at least $3.5B on research, development, and production in the country's Western Desert.

According to APA's management, the deal consolidates 90% of gross production into a single concession and also refreshes existing development lease terms for 20 years.

Just last month, Egypt's parliament approved an agreement to modernize and consolidate its production sharing contracts with the government.

Last year, APA announced a major oil discovery at its 1.4-million-acre offshore Suriname tract adjacent to Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (NYSE: XOM) historic discovery. APA said it has made a world-class discovery at the Kwaskwasi-1 well located in the prolific Guyana-Suriname Basin, where it encountered 278 meters (912 feet) of net oil and volatile oil / gas condensate pay.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch touted the Suriname prospect as a potential game-changer for APA:

"Suriname has the potential to reset the investment case," Merrill Lynch's veteran oil-industry analyst Doug Leggate said.

APA shares have gained 11.9% YTD and 80.9% in 12 months.

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