歐佩克+還遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到其總配額

即將到來(lái)的石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩可能比預(yù)期要少得多 今年油價(jià)下行壓力可能也會(huì)小得多

需求依然強(qiáng)勁 布倫特原油6個(gè)月期合約價(jià)差自去年12月觸及低點(diǎn)以來(lái)已上漲逾一倍

2022年初 奧密克戎病例飆升和許多主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的病例 再加上石油市場(chǎng)預(yù)期供應(yīng)過(guò)剩 給了熊市論者一個(gè)歡呼的理由 

據(jù)1月13日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，油價(jià)在今年第一個(gè)交易周期上漲了5%，原因是分析師們關(guān)注的是，供應(yīng)過(guò)剩可能不會(huì)像幾個(gè)月前預(yù)測(cè)的那么嚴(yán)重，這也是因?yàn)?021年底庫(kù)存水平非常低。此外，世界上許多地緣政治敏感地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)很大。

預(yù)測(cè)人士和分析師表示，疫情的發(fā)展將繼續(xù)是今年市場(chǎng)最大的不確定因素，不過(guò)，預(yù)計(jì)2022年全球石油平均需求將開(kāi)始超過(guò)疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。

從2021年到2022年，需求將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，除非許多地方出現(xiàn)新的大規(guī)模封鎖。多數(shù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)，供應(yīng)無(wú)疑也將增長(zhǎng)到超過(guò)需求的程度。不僅歐佩克+將繼續(xù)削減產(chǎn)量，以美國(guó)為首的非歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)也將增加供應(yīng)，特別是在每桶80美元的油價(jià)水平上，這意味著歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)和非歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)的產(chǎn)量都將增長(zhǎng)。

不過(guò)，包括彭博社第一新聞石油策略師朱利安?李(Julian Lee)在內(nèi)的一些分析師表示，即將到來(lái)的石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩可能比預(yù)期要小得多，今年對(duì)油價(jià)下行壓力可能也會(huì)小得多。

首先，歐佩克+還遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到其總配額。投資低迷和歐佩克成員國(guó)(特別是非洲成員國(guó))缺乏閑置產(chǎn)能，使得歐佩克+月產(chǎn)量增幅遠(yuǎn)低于40萬(wàn)桶/天，其中25.3萬(wàn)桶/天分配給受歐佩克協(xié)議約束的10個(gè)成員國(guó)。

根據(jù)彭博社和彭博社Lee收集的歐佩克數(shù)據(jù)，上個(gè)月是歐佩克+連續(xù)第七個(gè)月未能實(shí)現(xiàn)增產(chǎn)，也是連續(xù)第五個(gè)月產(chǎn)量低于目標(biāo)50萬(wàn)桶/天。

據(jù)彭博社估計(jì)，歐佩克+在2021年12月產(chǎn)量比其總體產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)低62.5萬(wàn)桶/天，略高于11月的65.5萬(wàn)桶/天。

歐佩克的情況也好不到哪里去，因?yàn)榉侵蕹蓡T國(guó)產(chǎn)量正在下降。根據(jù)路透社月度調(diào)查，歐佩克12月石油日產(chǎn)量較11月僅增加7萬(wàn)桶，因該組織未能按照歐佩克+協(xié)議將日產(chǎn)量提高25.3萬(wàn)桶。

此外，盡管該組織預(yù)計(jì)今年市場(chǎng)仍會(huì)出現(xiàn)過(guò)剩，但與上月評(píng)估相比，可能會(huì)有所減少。正如歐佩克在12月中旬月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中所言，歐佩克+繼續(xù)認(rèn)為，奧密克戎對(duì)需求的影響是“溫和而短暫的”。

閑置產(chǎn)能正在減少

然而，所有供過(guò)于求的預(yù)測(cè)都依賴于歐佩克+將實(shí)現(xiàn)其產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)的假設(shè)，但它連續(xù)七個(gè)月都沒(méi)有實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。

幾個(gè)月來(lái)，歐佩克+一直未能達(dá)到其集體產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)，并可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月繼續(xù)如此。非洲歐佩克成員國(guó)缺乏提高產(chǎn)量的能力和投資，而俄羅斯產(chǎn)量和出口量估計(jì)都低于配額。產(chǎn)量不足甚至可能在2022年成為油價(jià)一大利好因素，特別是如果奧密克戎對(duì)全球石油需求的影響仍僅限于航空燃料的話。

阿拉伯海灣最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)有能力提高產(chǎn)量，并實(shí)現(xiàn)歐佩克+配額，但這當(dāng)然會(huì)減少他們的閑置產(chǎn)能，而這正是全球閑置產(chǎn)能的主要來(lái)源。

由于閑置產(chǎn)能較低，主要集中在沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)和科威特，2022年的突然供應(yīng)中斷將推高油價(jià)。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)策略師沃倫·帕特森（Warren Patterson）和姚文宇（Wenyu Yao）表示，“歐佩克+閑置產(chǎn)能是供應(yīng)方面的擔(dān)憂，短期內(nèi)不會(huì)消失。只有少數(shù)幾個(gè)成員國(guó)有能力提高產(chǎn)量，而其他成員國(guó)由于供應(yīng)中斷和缺乏投資，未能達(dá)到商定的產(chǎn)量水平”。

高盛（Goldman Sachs）非常看好2022年及以后的石油行業(yè)，因?yàn)樵撔袠I(yè)投資較低，而且世界上只有沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋兩個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)目前有能力和手段開(kāi)采比2020年1月疫情爆發(fā)前更多的石油。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管杰夫·柯里（Jeff Currie）在接受采訪時(shí)表示，其他人都在苦苦掙扎。

盛寶銀行商品策略部門(mén)主管Ole Hansen表示，“總體而言，需求依然強(qiáng)勁，布倫特原油六個(gè)月期合約價(jià)差自去年12月以來(lái)已擴(kuò)大逾一倍，市場(chǎng)針對(duì)奧密克戎會(huì)對(duì)需求產(chǎn)生影響的擔(dān)憂情緒不高”。

低于預(yù)期的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)可能很快就會(huì)消除石油大量過(guò)剩的確定性，因?yàn)椴淮_定性和波動(dòng)性將繼續(xù)是今年石油市場(chǎng)唯一確定的兩件事。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

The Bullish Case For Oil Prices In 2022

OPEC+ is nowhere near pumping to its overall quota

The coming oil glut could be much smaller than expected and could exert much less downward pressure on oil prices this year

Demand remains robust as signaled in the six-month futures spread in Brent which has more than doubled since hitting a low point in December

At the start of 2022, Omicron’s surge and record COVID cases in many major economies are combining with an expected oversupply on the oil market to give bears a reason to cheer. 

Yet, oil prices rose by 5 percent in the first trading week of the year as analysts focused on the possibility that the oversupply may not be as high as predicted a few months ago, also because of very low levels of inventories at the end of 2021. In addition, supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan reminded market players of the volatility of much of the world’s oil production in geopolitically sensitive areas.  

COVID developments will continue to be the biggest wild card in the market this year, but average global oil demand in 2022 is expected to exceed the pre-pandemic level from 2019, forecasters and analysts say. 

Demand is set to grow even further from 2021 into 2022, barring new mass lockdowns in many places. Supply will no doubt also grow to the point of exceeding demand, most analysts predict. Not only is OPEC+ set to continue unwinding its production cuts, but non-OPEC+ producers—led by the United States—will also raise supply, especially at $80 oil, which means that global crude oil production is set to grow from both OPEC+ producers and those outside the pact. 

However, the coming oil glut could be much smaller than expected and could exert much less downward pressure on oil prices this year, some analysts, including Bloomberg First Word oil strategist Julian Lee, say. 

First, OPEC+ is nowhere near pumping to its overall quota. Depressed investments and a lack of spare capacity at many producers in the pact, especially African OPEC members, have made monthly oil production increases much lower than the allowed 400,000 bpd for OPEC+, of which 253,000 bpd is allocated to the ten OPEC members bound by the pact. 

Last month was the seventh consecutive month in which OPEC+ had failed to deliver on its production increase, and the fifth straight month in which it had undershot its target production by more than 500,000 bpd, according to Bloomberg and OPEC data compiled by Bloomberg’s Lee. 

OPEC+ produced 625,000 bpd below its overall production target in December 2021, slightly better than the 655,000-bpd shortfall off the target in November, per Bloomberg estimates. 

OPEC is not faring much better, with African members dragging output down. According to the monthly Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil production increased by just 70,000 bpd in December from November as the cartel consistently failed to raise its production by 253,000 bpd a month as per the OPEC+ deal. 

Moreover, although the group still expects a surplus on the market this year, it could be a smaller one compared to last month’s assessment. OPEC+ continues to see the Omicron impact on demand as “mild and short-lived,” just as OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) in mid-December.

Spare Capacity Is Shrinking 

Yet, all oversupply models rely on the assumption that OPEC+ will actually deliver on its production target—something it has not done for seven consecutive months. 

OPEC+ has been undershooting its collective production targets for months and will likely continue to do so in the months ahead. African OPEC members lack the capacity and investments to boost production, while Russia is estimated to pump and export lower volumes than its quota. The underproduction could even become a major upside for oil in 2022, especially if Omicron’s dent to global oil demand remains limited to jet fuel, as the most recent estimates and analyses have shown. 

The biggest Arab Gulf producers have the means to raise output and fulfill their OPEC+ quotas, but this, of course, shrinks their spare production capacity, which accounts for the majority of the spare capacity globally. 

With lower spare capacity, mostly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, a sudden supply disruption in 2022 would push oil prices higher. 

“The supply concern which is not going to disappear anytime soon is OPEC spare capacity. There are only a handful of members that have the capacity to increase output, whilst others are failing to meet their agreed production levels due to disruptions and lack of investment,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Monday. 

Goldman Sachs, for example, is very bullish on oil for 2022 and beyond due to low investment in the sector and the fact that only two oil producers in the world—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—currently have the capacity and the means to pump more oil than they did in January 2020, just before COVID. Everyone else is struggling, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television in an interview last week. 

“Overall, demand remains robust as signaled in the six-month futures spread in Brent which has more than doubled since the December, omicron demand worry low point,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday. 

Lower-than-expected supply growth could soon wipe out the certainty of a large oil glut, as uncertainty and volatility will continue to be the only two certain things in oil markets this year.  

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