據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)報道，總部位于英國的全球領(lǐng)先商業(yè)情報公司伍德麥肯茲日前表示，全球油氣勘探行業(yè)將加速其重新定位2022年能源轉(zhuǎn)型，這將使優(yōu)勢資源成為取代成熟老舊資產(chǎn)的目標(biāo)。
盡管油價有所改善，但2022年常規(guī)油氣勘探作業(yè)將遵循在2021年確定的遵守紀(jì)律的路徑， 總支出將達到200億-250億美元，鉆初探井將由石油巨頭和規(guī)模更大的國家石油公司(NOCs)主導(dǎo)。
伍德麥肯茲表示，該公司預(yù)計這些石油巨頭和NOCs將從新發(fā)現(xiàn)的150億 - 200億桶油當(dāng)量中發(fā)現(xiàn)四分之三。 這種規(guī)模的成功在每桶50美元油價時將帶來兩位數(shù)的整周期回報。
伍德麥肯茲表示：“具有高產(chǎn)儲油層的深水遠景區(qū)將被優(yōu)先考慮，包括巴西、圭亞那、蘇里南、納米比亞和南非的巨型遠景構(gòu)造。”
美國赫斯公司表示，圭亞那的石油日產(chǎn)量在2030年前可能達到150萬桶。
全球油氣勘探公司將再次淡化油氣勘探活動，鉆井和許可證出售繼續(xù)保持低調(diào)。伍德麥肯茲表示：“只有極少數(shù)具有高影響力的井才會被稱為‘前沿井’。” 伍德麥肯茲指出，“新發(fā)現(xiàn)和綠地開發(fā)在降低投資組合排放強度方面所帶來的好處將受到關(guān)注。”
包括美國埃克森美孚公司和法國道達爾能源公司在內(nèi)的石油巨頭一直在對那些承諾以較低盈虧平衡提供更輕原油的資產(chǎn)加倍下注。 自2015年以來，埃克森美孚公司在圭亞那近海斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊與合作伙伴赫斯公司合作，迄今已發(fā)現(xiàn)100多億桶油當(dāng)量的油氣儲量。合資公司已開始麗莎油田第一階段開發(fā)項目的石油生產(chǎn)，第二階段開發(fā)項目計劃于2022年初投產(chǎn)，帕亞拉油田的第三階段開發(fā)項目目標(biāo)在2024年投產(chǎn)。
圭亞那Yellowtail油田將開發(fā)迄今為止最大的資源基地，Pinktail油田和Whiptail油田可能是第6個開發(fā)項目。
圭亞那迄今為止最大的項目和本世紀(jì)最大的海底開發(fā)項目之一正在等待圭亞那政府批準(zhǔn)。到2025年前，Yellowtail油田將在埃克森美孚公司運營的斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊日交付25萬桶原油，使圭亞那的原油日總產(chǎn)量超過80萬桶。
李峻 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Giant prospects in Guyana will be at forefront of 2022 exploration
U.K. based consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says the exploration sector will accelerate its repositioning for the energy transition in 2022 and this will see advantaged resources being targeted to replace maturing legacy assets.
Conventional exploration will follow the disciplined path set in 2021, despite improved prices. Spend will total US$20-25 billion, and wildcatting will be led by the Majors and larger National Oil Companies (NOCs).
WoodMac said these companies will find three-quarters of the 15-20 billion barrel of oil equivalent (boe) it expects from new discoveries. Success at this scale will deliver double-digit full cycle returns at US$50/bb.
“Deepwater plays with highly productive reservoirs will be prioritised, including giant prospects in Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, Namibia and South Africa,” WoodMac said.
Hess says Guyana production could hit 1.5 million bpd before 2030
Explorers will once again downplay activity, with drilling and licensing kept under the radar. “only rare high-impact wells will be referred to as frontier,” WoodMac said, pointing out that what will be vocalised are the benefits of new discoveries and greenfield development in driving down portfolio emissions intensity.
Majors such as ExxonMobil and Total have been doubling down on assets that promise to deliver lighter oil at lower breakevens. Exxon has had significant success in this regard at the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana where it has found over 10 billion boe since 2015 in partnership with co-venturers Hess. The company is already producing oil at the Liza Phase 1 Development with a second phase set to come onstream by early 2022 and a third development at the Payara field targeted for 2024.
Yellowtail will develop largest resource base to date, Pinktail and Whiptail could be 6th project
Guyana’s biggest project to date and one of the largest subsea developments this century is pending government approvals. Yellowtail will deliver a whopping 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the Exxon-operated Stabroek Block by 2025, pushing Guyana’s total output well over 800,000 bpd.
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