據能源全球8月4日消息稱，全球領先的數據分析公司GlobalData表示，到2030年，全球可再生能源或天然氣的碳捕集制氫能力將增加20倍以上，達到1400萬噸/年。

　　GlobalData的最新報告《氫轉型前景和趨勢——2021年第三季度》顯示，最近宣布的低碳項目的總產能已超過2000萬噸/年。在這些產能中，85%來自“綠色氫”項目，即使用可再生能源生產氫氣的項目，而其余15%來自“藍色氫”項目，即使用天然氣生產氫氣，但配備了碳捕獲技術。

　　大部分在建產能來自仍處于可行性階段、不確定是否會繼續進行的項目。GlobalData的2030年展望預測，在高情景下，低碳氫產能將達到1400萬噸/年，而低情景下，低碳氫產能將有更多可衡量的增長，達到800萬噸/年，盡管仍比當前60萬噸/年的活躍產能高出10倍以上。

　　GlobalData 管理能源分析師 Will Scargill 評論道：“低碳氫可以為煉油和化工行業提供減排途徑，也可以為重型運輸和工業等難以減排的行業提供脫碳途徑。這一行業在未來十年有快速增長的潛力，綠色氫氣將引領這一行業的發展。然而，速度將取決于主要項目的進展到投資，特別是在管道相對頭重足輕的情況下，前10個項目占管道產能的65%。”

　　除了不斷發展產能之外，低碳氫行業增長的關鍵決定因素將是政策支持和更廣泛價值鏈的發展。歐盟在 2020 年宣布了一項雄心勃勃的氫能戰略，全球許多政府正在制定政策，以搶占這一增長市場的份額并加速本國的能源轉型。

　　代表價值鏈不同部分的公司之間也出現了合作關系，以建立連貫的發展戰略。這包括開發產能的公司與擁有潛在客戶的公司之間的合作，以支持這些發展。僅2021年第二季度，與氫相關的合作協議數量就超過2020年上半年的三倍。

　　Scargill 先生總結道：“低碳氫行業的快速發展將依賴于公司和政府之間的合作努力。通過開發新的需求和產能，擴大技術規模，降低成本，這應該能夠實現該行業的商業化。”

　　朱佳妮 摘譯自 能源全球

　　原文如下：

　　Globaldata: clean hydrogen production set to increase

　　Global capacity for hydrogen production from renewable energy or natural gas with carbon capture could increase by over 20 times reaching 14 million tpy by 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

　　GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Hydrogen Transition Outlook and Trends – Q3 2021’, reveals that recent announcements have brought the total capacity of low carbon projects in the pipeline to over 20 million tpy. Out of this capacity, 85% is from ‘green hydrogen’ projects, those where hydrogen is produced from renewable sources, while the remaining 15% is contributed by ‘blue hydrogen’ projects, which produce hydrogen from natural gas but are equipped with carbon capture technology.

　　The majority of the capacity in the pipeline comes from projects that are still in the feasibility stage and not certain to go ahead. GlobalData’s 2030 outlook envisages low carbon hydrogen capacity reaching 14 million tpy in a high case scenario while the low case scenario would see more measured growth to 8 million tpy, though still over 10 times higher than the currently active capacity of 0.6 million tpy.

　　Will Scargill, Managing Energy Analyst at GlobalData, comments: "Low carbon hydrogen can offer path to reduced emissions in the refining and chemicals sectors, as well as decarbonization of hard to abate sectors such as heavy transport and industry. The sector has the potential for rapid growth this decade, with green hydrogen leading the charge. However, the pace will depend on progressing major projects through to investment, particularly as the pipeline is relatively top-heavy with the top 10 projects representing 65% of pipeline capacity."

　　In addition to progressing production capacity developments, key determinants of low carbon hydrogen sector growth will be policy support and development of the wider value chain. The EU announced an ambitious hydrogen strategy in 2020 and many governments globally are developing policies to capture a share of this growth market and accelerate their own energy transitions.

　　Partnerships are also springing up between companies representing different parts of the value chain to build a coherent strategy for development. This includes collaborations between companies developing production capacity and those with potential customers to underpin these developments. 2Q2021 alone witnessed over three times the number of hydrogen-related partnership deals as in 1H2020.

　　Mr Scargill concludes: "A rapid build out of the low carbon hydrogen sector will rely on a collaborative effort between companies and with governments. This should allow commercialisation of the sector by developing new demand segments alongside capacity, scaling up technologies and bringing costs down."

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