據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2021年8月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，最近幾周，原油價(jià)格的近期前景似乎已顯著惡化。
這是根據(jù)渣打銀行發(fā)表的一份最新油價(jià)報(bào)告得出的結(jié)論。分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中表示，他們認(rèn)為全球石油市場(chǎng)目前仍處于過(guò)剩狀態(tài)，亞太地區(qū)需求的疲軟意味著未來(lái)存在更大的過(guò)剩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
渣打銀行在周三（8月4日）發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的報(bào)告中表示：“隨著價(jià)格前景的黯淡，現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題是生產(chǎn)商在油價(jià)上漲期間如何反應(yīng)。”
分析師補(bǔ)充稱：“從石油公司的上半年財(cái)報(bào)季來(lái)看，許多獨(dú)立石油公司在過(guò)去3個(gè)月里有所保留，考慮到當(dāng)前投資組合中對(duì)沖價(jià)格相對(duì)較低，他們更傾向于增加上行敞口。”
渣打銀行的分析師接著說(shuō)，對(duì)25名早期記者的抽樣調(diào)查顯示，石油對(duì)沖頭寸連續(xù)第5個(gè)季度萎縮。 未來(lái)4個(gè)季度的掉期交易平均每桶超過(guò)66美元，比3個(gè)月前投資組合中一年期掉期交易的平均水平高出了22美元。 現(xiàn)在的平均價(jià)格略高于每桶47美元，仍遠(yuǎn)低于當(dāng)前價(jià)格。
分析師在報(bào)告中指出，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)最新發(fā)布的報(bào)告仍看漲其美國(guó)石油多頭買空指數(shù)，并表示在過(guò)去一周全球流動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)略強(qiáng)，但分析師補(bǔ)充稱，過(guò)去兩個(gè)月在最大地區(qū)的總體趨勢(shì)要么是持平或下降。
基本面前景不變
惠譽(yù)解決方案國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究分析師周三在發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份報(bào)告中表示，他們對(duì)本季度油價(jià)的基本面展望沒(méi)有變化。他們預(yù)測(cè)，2021年布倫特原油均價(jià)將達(dá)到72美元/桶，2022年為69美元/桶，2023年為70美元/桶，2024年為72美元/桶，2025年為74美元/桶。
惠譽(yù)分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)下半年市場(chǎng)平衡仍將緊張。”
分析師補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“供應(yīng)將會(huì)上升。歐佩克+同意在8月至12月期間每天恢復(fù)40萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量，而頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量在二疊紀(jì)盆地的帶動(dòng)下恢復(fù)了低增長(zhǎng)水平。 然而，面對(duì)全球新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆發(fā)，石油需求也將繼續(xù)正常化，增速將超過(guò)產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。”
“從2022年開(kāi)始，前景變得更加黯淡。 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭放緩，石油需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將越過(guò)高峰。 與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)、歐佩克+的原油產(chǎn)量增加，將大幅增加市場(chǎng)上的供應(yīng)。”
分析師表示，他們的全球供需平衡表明，明年全球市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)大量供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，而隨著疫情消退，市場(chǎng)人氣可能只會(huì)部分上揚(yáng)。
李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站
原文如下：
Analysts Talk Oil Prices
The immediate prospects for oil prices appear to have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.
That’s according to a new oil price report from Standard Chartered, in which analysts state that they think the market is now in surplus and that weakness in Asia-Pacific demand implies a risk of larger surpluses to come.
“With the price outlook darkening, the question is, how did producers react during the period of higher prices,” Standard Chartered said in its note, which was sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.
“The evidence from the first half of the oil company reporting season is that many independents held back over the past three months, preferring to increase their exposure to the upside given the relatively low hedged prices in their current portfolio,” the analysts added.
“A sample of 25 early reporters implies oil hedge books shrank for a fifth successive quarter. Swaps transacted for the next four quarters averaged above $66 per barrel, $22 per barrel higher than the average of one-year swaps in the portfolio three months ago. That average is now just over $47 per barrel, still well below current prices,” Standard Chartered analysts went on to say.
The analysts noted in the report that the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) release was bullish according to its U.S. oil data bull-bear index, and said global mobility data was slightly stronger over the past week, but added that overall trends in the largest regions over the past two months are either flat or falling.
Fundamental Outlook Unchanged
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research revealed that the company’s fundamental outlook on oil prices is unchanged this quarter, in a report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. The company forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $72 per barrel in 2021, $69 per barrel in 2022, $70 per barrel in 2023, $72 per barrel in 2024 and $74 per barrel in 2025.
“We expect the market balance to remain tight over H2 [second half of the year],” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report.
“Supply will rise. OPEC+ has agreed to return 400,000 barrels per day every month between August and December, while shale production has returned to low levels of growth, led by the Permian. However, in the face of renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus globally, oil demand will also continue to normalize, outpacing the growth in production,” the analysts added.
“From 2022, the outlook becomes more clouded. The economic recovery will have passed it peaks, with momentum slowing and oil demand growth decelerating. At the same time, rising volumes from the U.S., OPEC+ and, prospectively, will substantially increase the supply availably to market,” the analysts continued.
The analysts said their global supply and demand balance points to a large glut next year, which may only partly be offset by firming sentiment as the pandemic fades.
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