據(jù)路透社8月9日報(bào)道，因黃金和石油的價(jià)格大幅下挫，只是短暫地打擊了市場的人氣，亞洲股市周一早盤下跌，隨后反彈，而在樂觀的美國就業(yè)報(bào)告提振債券收益率后，美元兌歐元匯率達(dá)到四個(gè)月高點(diǎn)。
市場早盤因金價(jià)突然跳水而受到震動(dòng)，金價(jià)跌破每盎司1750美元，引發(fā)止損拋售，跌至每盎司1684美元。最后一次跌幅偉1.3%，至1740美元。
布倫特原油價(jià)格也下跌了2%，原因是人們擔(dān)心Delta新冠肺炎變異毒株的傳播會(huì)抑制旅游需求。東京和新加坡的假期交易清淡，也加劇了波動(dòng)性。不過，在最初的下跌之后，摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)除日本以外亞太地區(qū)最廣泛的股指回升至0.1%。
美國參議院更接近于通過一項(xiàng)1萬億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施計(jì)劃，盡管該計(jì)劃仍需在眾議院通過。
投資者仍在評(píng)估周五強(qiáng)勁的美國非農(nóng)就業(yè)報(bào)告是否會(huì)令美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備理事會(huì)(FED)更加傾向于退出刺激計(jì)劃。
NAB資深外匯策略師Rodrigo Catril表示:"對(duì)于將在9 - 12月期間宣布縮減購債規(guī)模，以及在11月至明年1月期間實(shí)際縮減購債規(guī)模方面，各方意見并沒有太多分歧。"不過，他表示，縮減購債規(guī)模的步伐仍懸而未決，這將決定實(shí)際加息的時(shí)間。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前每月購買1200億美元資產(chǎn)，因此200億美元的縮減購債計(jì)劃將在六個(gè)月后結(jié)束，而100億美元的縮減購債計(jì)劃則需要一年時(shí)間。
Delta病毒的蔓延可能為美國提供了縮減購債規(guī)模的理由，美國的新冠肺炎病例已回到去年冬天激增時(shí)的水平，當(dāng)時(shí)有超過6.6萬人住院治療。
預(yù)計(jì)將于本周公布的7月CPI數(shù)據(jù)也將證實(shí)通脹已見頂，此外，二手車價(jià)格在大幅上漲后終于回落。
本周將有四位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員發(fā)表講話，這無疑將為尋找縮減購債時(shí)機(jī)的市場提供足夠的線索。與此同時(shí)，美國強(qiáng)勁的財(cái)報(bào)季基本上支撐了股市。美國銀行分析師指出，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成份股公司第二季度收益較上年同期增長15%，其中90%的公司已經(jīng)公布了業(yè)績。
他們在一份報(bào)告中寫道:“然而，在業(yè)績公布后的第二天，業(yè)績優(yōu)于預(yù)期的公司對(duì)其股價(jià)反應(yīng)平淡，業(yè)績差于預(yù)期的公司將受到?jīng)_擊。雖然樂觀預(yù)期強(qiáng)于平均水平，但對(duì)兩年增長的普遍預(yù)期表明，在宏觀擔(dān)憂的背景下，增長將放緩。”
金融類股周五走強(qiáng)，因收益率曲線趨陡預(yù)計(jì)將有利于銀行盈利，同時(shí)也會(huì)拖累估值畸高的科技股。
就業(yè)報(bào)告公布后，美國10年期國債收益率升至1.30%，為上周2月以來的最低水平1.177%。
這一躍升使美元大幅升值，并將歐元匯率推回到1.1760美元，并短暫跌至4月以來的最低水平1.1740美元。美元兌日圓同樣攀升至110.22日圓，脫離上周108.71日圓的低點(diǎn)。美元指數(shù)升至92.882，接近7月93.194的峰值。
由于擔(dān)心冠肺炎疫情，旅行限制將威脅看漲的需求預(yù)期，油價(jià)在經(jīng)歷了4個(gè)月來最大單周跌幅后進(jìn)一步下跌。布倫特原油下跌1.29美元，至每桶69.41美元，美國原油下跌1.34美元，至66.94美元。
王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社
原文如下：
Asia stocks fight back, gold slides and oil takes a spill
Asian shares fought back from early losses on Monday as sharp falls in gold and oil prices briefly spooked sentiment, while the dollar reached four-month highs on the euro after an upbeat U.S. jobs report lifted bond yields.
Markets were shaken early by a sudden dive in gold as a break of $1,750 triggered stop loss sales to take it as low as $1,684 an ounce. It was last down 1.3% at $1,740.
Brent also sank 2% on concerns the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus would temper travel demand.
Holidays in Tokyo and Singapore made for thin trading conditions, adding to the volatility. Yet after an initial fall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan recovered to be up 0.1%.
Nasdaq futures slipped 0.3% and S&P 500 futures 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both dipped 0.2%.
The U.S. Senate came closer to passing a $1 trillion infrastructure package, though it still has to go through the House.
Investors were still assessing whether Friday’s strong U.S. payrolls report would take the Federal Reserve a step nearer to winding back its stimulus.
“There is not a lot of disagreement on a taper announcement coming sometime between September-December followed by actual tapering sometime between November and January,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.
However, the pace of tapering was still up in the air and would decide when an actual rate hike came, he said. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion of assets a month, so a $20 billion taper would end the programme in six months whilst a $10 billion tapering approach would take a year.
The spread of the Delta variant could argue for a longer taper with U.S. cases back to levels seen in last winter’s surge with more than 66,000 people hospitalised.
Figures for July CPI due this week are also expected to confirm inflation has peaked, with prices for second hand vehicles finally easing back after huge gains.
There are four Fed officials speaking this week and will no doubt offer enough grist for markets looking for clues on the timing of tapering.
In the meantime, stocks have been mostly underpinned by a robust U.S. earnings season. BofA analysts noted S&P 500 companies were tracking a 15% beat on second quarter earnings with 90% having reported.
“However, companies with earnings beats have seen muted reactions on their stock price the day following earnings releases, and misses have been penalized,” they wrote in a note.
“Guidance is stronger than average but consensus estimates for two-year growth suggest a slowdown amid macro concerns.”
Financials firmed on Friday as a steeper yield curve is seen benefiting bank earnings, while also penalising the tech sector where valuations are sky high.
Yields on U.S. 10-year notes were up at 1.30% in the wake of the jobs report, having hit their lowest since February last week at 1.177%.
That jump gave the dollar a broad lift and knocked the euro back to $1.1760, and briefly to its lowest since April at $1.1740. The dollar likewise climbed to 110.22 yen and away from last week’s trough of 108.71.
That took the U.S. currency index up to 92.882 and nearer to the July peak of 93.194.
Oil prices eased further after suffering their largest weekly drop in four months amid worries coronavirus travel restrictions would threaten bullish expectations for demand.
Brent fell $1.29 to $69.41 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost $1.34 to $66.94.
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