據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年8月9日報(bào)道，廉價(jià)天然氣時(shí)代可能一去不復(fù)返了。 得益于未來一段時(shí)間更熱的天氣預(yù)報(bào)，以及全球飆升的天然氣價(jià)格，確保美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口將保持在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，美國天然氣期貨價(jià)格日前攀升至31個(gè)月來高點(diǎn)的4.16美元/百萬英熱單位。

　　全球金融市場數(shù)據(jù)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提供商Refinitiv預(yù)計(jì)，由于冷卻的需求持續(xù)增加，包括出口在內(nèi)的平均天然氣需求將從909億立方英尺/天攀升至945億立方英尺/天。 下周的預(yù)測實(shí)際上低于預(yù)期，這是因?yàn)樘烊粴鈨r(jià)格越來越高，一些發(fā)電廠將被迫改用煤炭發(fā)電。

　　但這還不足以阻止天然氣價(jià)格的上漲。

　　價(jià)格上漲對美國LNG來說是個(gè)好消息：與2020年上半年相比，2021年1月至6月，美國LNG出口量同比大幅增加了42%，日均達(dá)到了96億立方英尺。亞洲仍然是美國LNG的最大買家，截至5月底，亞洲占美國LNG出口總量的46%。

　　短期展望：天然氣供應(yīng)趨緊

　　根據(jù)英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的一篇報(bào)道，由于天然氣供應(yīng)趨緊、歐洲天然氣產(chǎn)量下降以及俄羅斯天然氣出口減少，歐洲和亞洲的天然氣價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了大幅攀升。

　　由此，歐洲天然氣價(jià)格首次飆升至40歐元/兆瓦時(shí) (14歐元/百萬英熱單位)左右，英國天然氣價(jià)格達(dá)到了16年來的最高水平。 亞洲的情況更為嚴(yán)峻，天然氣價(jià)格已達(dá)到15美元/百萬英熱單位。

　　預(yù)計(jì)未來一段時(shí)間全球天然氣供應(yīng)緊張只會加劇。

　　“令人驚訝的是，沒有出現(xiàn)更多的擔(dān)憂。 在增加供應(yīng)方面，全球可供選擇的選項(xiàng)并不多。 俄羅斯確實(shí)是唯一可自由支配的天然氣供應(yīng)來源，但我們不知道額外的天然氣供應(yīng)可能何時(shí)開始。 因此，從日本到巴西，世界各地的交易商也開始關(guān)注歐洲的天然氣價(jià)格。

　　全球天然氣需求強(qiáng)勁反彈，部分原因是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，但也由于一系列極端天氣事件。歐洲漫長的冬季以及巴西等地的干旱增加了天然氣消耗。

　　不過，看漲的短期前景可能面臨壓力。

　　在8月6日結(jié)束的一周里，美國能源信息署（EIA）記錄了美國天然氣庫存增加了320億立方英尺的注入量，高于五年平均注入水平的300億立方英尺。

　　長期展望：天然氣充當(dāng)橋梁角色

　　美國長期以來都很喜歡天然氣，化石燃料在美國的發(fā)電組合中扮演著關(guān)鍵角色，而近一半的美國家庭使用這種燃料取暖。 在許多州，從化石燃料到可再生能源的轉(zhuǎn)變正如火如荼地進(jìn)行著，天然氣充當(dāng)著橋梁的角色，它將使這一轉(zhuǎn)變更加平穩(wěn)、不那么令人不安。

　　的確，天然氣和LNG現(xiàn)在被視為過渡到可再生能源的橋梁，因?yàn)樗鼈兏欣呐欧艩顩r，因?yàn)樗a(chǎn)生的二氧化碳比燃料油少30%，比煤炭少45%。

　　而且，這很可能成為一種長期趨勢。

　　然而，結(jié)合一些短期利好因素，如供應(yīng)中斷、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈以及暫停新的LNG出口廠已經(jīng)推動天然氣價(jià)格上揚(yáng)，有越來越多的人一致認(rèn)為，由清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型主導(dǎo)的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化意味著這可能成為新的常態(tài)。

　　更糟糕的是，在關(guān)注氣候變化的投資者和政府的呼吁下，近幾年來對新氣田的投資一直在下降。 例如，歐洲的高碳價(jià)格正迫使公用事業(yè)公司迅速轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣，而南亞和東南亞的數(shù)十個(gè)國家的政府正計(jì)劃建設(shè)數(shù)十個(gè)新的天然氣廠，以滿足快速增長的電力需求。 此外，在資金部署有限的情況下，轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣的速度相對較快。

　　由于幾乎沒有其他可行的選擇，世界將繼續(xù)更加嚴(yán)重地依賴燃燒更清潔的天然氣，以幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)短期的綠色目標(biāo)。

　　宏觀咨詢公司首席執(zhí)行官Chris Weafer告訴彭博社記者：“不管你怎么看，由于主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體承諾實(shí)現(xiàn)碳排放目標(biāo)，天然氣將成為未來幾十年的過渡燃料。 天然氣價(jià)格更有可能在中期內(nèi)保持高位，并在長期內(nèi)保持上漲。”

　　的確，根據(jù)國際能源署（IEA）的數(shù)據(jù)，天然氣是唯一的一種需求預(yù)計(jì)在本10年中將出現(xiàn)顯著增長的化石燃料，預(yù)計(jì)到2024年前，全球天然氣的需求將比疫情前的水平增加7%。 據(jù)麥肯錫公司的一次分析，全球LNG需求預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁，到2035年全球LNG需求預(yù)計(jì)將每年增加3.4%。

　　然而，由于缺乏資本投資，天然氣供應(yīng)可能仍將呈現(xiàn)緊張。 例如，自2020年初以來，除了在卡塔爾的大規(guī)模天然氣項(xiàng)目擴(kuò)建外，全球幾乎沒有新的LNG出口項(xiàng)目獲得批準(zhǔn)。 與此同時(shí)，沙特阿拉伯計(jì)劃開發(fā)巨大的賈富拉天然氣田，但其中很大一部分天然氣產(chǎn)出很可能最終用于本國綠色氫項(xiàng)目。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Cheap Natural Gas Is A Thing Of The Past

　　The era of cheap natural gas might be gone for good. U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a 31-month high of 4.16/MMBtu on Thursday thanks to forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks and soaring global gas prices ensuring that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will remain at record highs.

　　Refinitiv has projected that average gas demand, including exports, will climb from 90.9 bcfd in the current week to 94.5 bcfd next week as cooling demand keeps rising. Next week's forecast is actually lower than anticipated because some power generators will be forced to burn coal instead due to increasingly high natural gas prices.

　　But that won't be on a big enough scale to stop the natural gas march.

　　And that's great news for U.S. LNG: Between January and June 2021, U.S. LNG exports jumped by 42% Y/Y to an average of 9.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the first half of 2020. Asia remained the top buyer of U.S. LNG, accounting for 46 percent of exports through the end of May.

　　Short-term outlook: Supply Crunch

　　According to a report in the Financial Times, natural gas prices have climbed sharply across Europe and Asia thanks to tighter supplies, lower production volumes in Europe, as well as lower exports from Russia.

　　Consequently, natural gas prices in Europe have surged to around 40 euros per mWh (~14/MMBtu) for the first time ever, with UK gas prices at the highest levels in 16 years. The situation is even direr in Asia where gas prices have hit $15/MMBtu

　　The supply crunch is only expected to intensify over the coming weeks.

　　"If anything it's surprising there hasn't been more concern. In terms of additional supply there aren't many options on the table globally. Russia is really the only discretionary source of supplies out there but we don't know when additional deliveries might start. So traders around the world, from Japan to Brazil, are starting to watch European prices too," Tom Marzec-Manser at ICIS has told FT.

　　Natural gas demand has rebounded strongly across the globe in part due to economic recovery as economies reopen but also due to a spate of extreme weather events. A long winter in Europe as well as droughts in places like Brazil have elevated natural gas consumption.

　　The bullish short-term outlook could, however, come under pressure.

　　Last week, the EIA recorded a 32 Bcf injection, above the five-year average of 30 Bcf.

　　Long-term outlook: The Natural Gas Bridge

　　The United States has a long-running love affair with natural gas, with fossil fuels acting as the lynchpin in the country's power generation mix, while nearly half of American homes use the fuel for heating. With the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in full swing in many states, natural gas serves as the bridge that will make the switch smoother and less jarring.

　　Indeed, natural gas and LNG are now being viewed as the bridge in the transition to renewable energy thanks to their more favorable emissions profile, as it generates 30% less carbon dioxide than fuel oil and 45% less than coal.

　　And, this is very likely to become a long-term trend.

　　Whereas a combination of several short-term tailwinds such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound, and a pause in new LNG export plants have been driving the natural gas rally, there is a growing consensus that structural changes led by the clean energy transition mean that this is likely to become the new norm.

　　To exacerbate matters, investments in new gas fields have been falling over the years amid calls from climate-conscious investors and governments. For instance, high carbon prices in Europe are forcing utilities to quickly switch to natural gas；while scores of governments in South and Southeast Asia are planning dozens of new gas plants to meet rapidly growing electricity needs. Further, the switch to natural gas can be made relatively quickly with limited capital deployments.

　　With few other viable options, the world will continue to rely more heavily on cleaner-burning gas to help achieve short-term green goals.

　　"No matter how you look at it, gas will be the transitional fuel for decades to come as major economies commit to meeting carbon emission targets. The price of gas is more likely to remain high in the medium term and increase in the long term," Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd., has told Bloomberg.

　　Indeed, natural gas is the only fossil fuel that's expected to record significant growth in the current decade, with demand forecast to increase 7% from pre-Covid-19 levels by 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. LNG demand, in particular, is expected to remain strong, with LNG demand forecast to grow 3.4% annually through 2035, according to an analysis by McKinsey & Co.

　　A lack of capital investments, however, means that natural gas supply is likely to remain tight. For instance, few new LNG export projects have been approved since early 2020, save for a massive expansion in Qatar. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has planned to develop the giant Jafurah gas field, but a good chunk of that gas is likely to end up in its green hydrogen project.

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