據(jù)世界能源8月10日消息：全球領(lǐng)先的數(shù)據(jù)分析公司GlobalData表示，全球可再生能源或天然氣的碳捕集制氫能力將增加20倍以上，達(dá)到1400萬(wàn)噸/年。
GlobalData的最新報(bào)告《氫轉(zhuǎn)型前景和趨勢(shì)-2021年第三季度》顯示，最近的公告已使在建低碳項(xiàng)目的總產(chǎn)能超過(guò)2000萬(wàn)噸/年。在這一產(chǎn)能中，85%來(lái)自“綠色氫”項(xiàng)目，即使用可再生能源生產(chǎn)氫氣的項(xiàng)目，而剩余的15%來(lái)自“藍(lán)色氫”項(xiàng)目，即使用天然氣生產(chǎn)氫氣，但配備了碳捕獲技術(shù)。
管道中的大部分產(chǎn)能來(lái)自仍處于可行性階段且不確定進(jìn)行的項(xiàng)目。GlobalData的2030年展望預(yù)計(jì)，在高碳情景下，低碳?xì)洚a(chǎn)能將達(dá)到1400萬(wàn)噸/年，而在低碳情景下，低碳?xì)錃猱a(chǎn)能將達(dá)到800萬(wàn)噸/年，盡管仍比目前60萬(wàn)噸/年的有效產(chǎn)能高出10倍以上。
GlobalData能源分析師Will Scargill評(píng)論道:“低碳?xì)淇梢詾闊捰秃突ば袠I(yè)減少排放，也可以為重型運(yùn)輸和工業(yè)等難以減排的行業(yè)提供脫碳途徑。該行業(yè)在本十年內(nèi)具有快速增長(zhǎng)的潛力，其中綠色氫占主導(dǎo)地位。然而，速度將取決于主要項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)展到投資，特別是管道相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)是重中之重，前10個(gè)項(xiàng)目占管道產(chǎn)能的65%。”
除了推動(dòng)產(chǎn)能發(fā)展，低碳?xì)湫袠I(yè)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵決定因素將是政策支持和更廣泛價(jià)值鏈的發(fā)展。歐盟去年宣布了一項(xiàng)雄心勃勃的氫戰(zhàn)略，全球許多國(guó)家的政府都在制定政策，以搶占這一增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)的份額，并加快自己的能源轉(zhuǎn)型。
代表價(jià)值鏈不同部分的公司之間也出現(xiàn)了合作關(guān)系，以建立連貫的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。這包括開(kāi)發(fā)生產(chǎn)能力的公司與擁有潛在客戶的公司之間的合作。僅2021年第二季度，與氫相關(guān)的合作協(xié)議數(shù)量就超過(guò)了2020年上半年的三倍。
Scargill總結(jié)道:“低碳?xì)漕I(lǐng)域的快速發(fā)展將依賴于企業(yè)之間以及與政府之間的合作。這將通過(guò)開(kāi)發(fā)新的需求細(xì)分市場(chǎng)以及產(chǎn)能、擴(kuò)大技術(shù)規(guī)模和降低成本，實(shí)現(xiàn)該行業(yè)的商業(yè)化。”
馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源
原文如下：
Global Low Carbon Hydrogen Production Capacity to Reach 14 mtpa in 2030: GlobalData
Global capacity for hydrogen production from renewable energy or natural gas with carbon capture could increase by over 20 times reaching 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Hydrogen Transition Outlook and Trends – Q3 2021’, reveals that recent announcements have brought the total capacity of low carbon projects in the pipeline to over 20 mtpa. Out of this capacity, 85% is from ‘green hydrogen’ projects, those where hydrogen is produced from renewable sources, while the remaining 15% is contributed by ‘blue hydrogen’ projects, which produce hydrogen from natural gas but are equipped with carbon capture technology.
The majority of the capacity in the pipeline comes from projects that are still in the feasibility stage and not certain to go ahead. GlobalData’s 2030 outlook envisages low carbon hydrogen capacity reaching 14 mtpa in a high case scenario while the low case scenario would see more measured growth to 8 mtpa, though still over 10 times higher than the currently active capacity of 0.6 mtpa.
Will Scargill, Managing Energy Analyst at GlobalData, comments: ‘‘Low carbon hydrogen can offer path to reduced emissions in the refining and chemicals sectors, as well as decarbonization of hard to abate sectors such as heavy transport and industry. The sector has the potential for rapid growth this decade, with green hydrogen leading the charge. However, the pace will depend on progressing major projects through to investment, particularly as the pipeline is relatively top-heavy with the top 10 projects representing 65% of pipeline capacity.’’
In addition to progressing production capacity developments, key determinants of low carbon hydrogen sector growth will be policy support and development of the wider value chain. The EU announced an ambitious hydrogen strategy last year and many governments globally are developing policies to capture a share of this growth market and accelerate their own energy transitions.
Partnerships are also springing up between companies representing different parts of the value chain to build a coherent strategy for development. This includes collaborations between companies developing production capacity and those with potential customers to underpin these developments. Q2 2021 alone witnessed over three times the number of hydrogen-related partnership deals as in the first half of 2020.
Mr Scargill concludes: “A rapid build out of the low carbon hydrogen sector will rely on a collaborative effort between companies and with governments. This should allow commercialization of the sector by developing new demand segments alongside capacity, scaling up technologies and bringing costs down.”
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