據(jù)彭博新聞社2021年7月14日報道，全球石油需求幾乎回升，只是不像我們在疫情爆發(fā)之前所知道的那樣。

　　由于全球范圍內(nèi)的限制意味著假期、外出就餐和服務的減少，人們在家庭生活上的支出增加了。

　　這導致了實物商品交易的繁榮，推動了對石腦油制造塑料的需求，推動了卡車與貨車的柴油使用。 另一個刺激因素是液化石油氣的消費，液化石油氣是亞洲部分地區(qū)常見的烹飪?nèi)剂稀?不利的一面是，由于人們不再乘坐飛機，航空燃油使用量仍然嚴重低迷。由于人們普遍避免使用公共交通工具， 汽油價格也沒有完全恢復正常。

　　這些動態(tài)影響了整個石油行業(yè)。 富含石腦油和液化石油氣的原油的生產(chǎn)商正經(jīng)歷更強勁的定價。 交易商們說，這就是為什么來自北海油田和美國頁巖油田的原油價格比中東出口的原油價格高得多的原因之一。

　　近幾個月的最大漲幅是石腦油。 根據(jù)位于巴黎的國際能源署（IEA）的數(shù)據(jù)，6月份石腦油的需求比2019年同期增長了11%或每天66萬桶。 液化石油氣需求增長了7.2%或每天88萬桶，高于Covid-19爆發(fā)前的水平。

　　相比之下，航空燃油和汽油的日產(chǎn)量仍然特別疲軟，比2019年6月的日產(chǎn)量水平低396萬桶。 與兩年前相比，6月份的石油產(chǎn)品日總需求量減少270萬桶。

　　美國擁有相關生產(chǎn)石化產(chǎn)品能力的煉油廠受益于消費者行為的轉變，利用了整個化工行業(yè)更廣泛的繁榮。 其他煉油廠，尤其是歐洲的煉油廠，已經(jīng)被迫關閉，因為需求不足以滿足他們的產(chǎn)量。

　　IEA估計，6月份的石油需求比2019年同月(疫情爆發(fā)前)低約3%。 IEA預計，到今年12月，油價將差不多回到平價水平。

　　李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Demand Surges Back in Unusual Way

　　Oil demand is almost back, only not quite as we knew it before Covid.

　　With global restrictions meaning fewer holidays, meals out, and services, people are spending more on their home lives.

　　That’s caused a boom in physical goods trades, driving up demand for naphtha to make plastics, and buoyed the use of diesel to power the trucks and trains that deliver all that stuff. Another boost: consumption of liquefied petroleum gas, a common cooking fuel in parts of Asia, is jumping. On the downside, jet fuel use remains severely depressed since people aren’t flying. Nor is gasoline still fully back to normal, despite a widespread avoidance of public transport.

　　These dynamics have implications across the oil industry. Producers of crudes that are rich in naphtha and liquefied petroleum gases are experiencing stronger pricing. This is one of the reasons why barrels pumped from fields in the North Sea and U.S. shale deposits are fetching big premiums over grades exported from the Middle East, according to traders.

　　The biggest gainer in recent months has been naphtha. Demand in June jumped by 11%, or 660,000 barrels a day, above the same month in 2019, according to data from the International Energy Agency in Paris. LPG demand climbed 7.2%, or 880,000 barrels a day, above pre-pandemic levels.

　　By contrast, jet fuel and gasoline remained particularly weak, staying a combined 3.96 million barrels a day below June 2019 levels last month. Overall oil products demand was down by 2.7 million barrels a day in June compared with two years earlier.

　　Oil refineries which have associated capacity to make petrochemicals have benefited from the shift in consumer behavior, tapping into a much wider boom across the chemicals industry. Other refineries, especially in Europe, have been forced to shut down operations because the demand hasn’t been good enough for what they churn out.

　　The IEA estimated that oil demand in June was about 3 percent below where it stood in the same month in 2019, before the pandemic hit. The Paris-based adviser to governments anticipates that by December, it will be pretty much back at parity.

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