據(jù)今日油價7月20日報道，歐佩克+談判的失敗以及隨后雙方的和解(盡管是漸進的)恰逢中東國家石油公司在2021年8月制定官方銷售價格。歐佩克+談判與沙特阿拉伯的預(yù)期之間的聯(lián)系是顯而易見的，沙特阿美直到最后一刻才公布其官方價格，直到維也納會議明確取消時才公布，沙特推遲逐月加息只會凸顯其意圖。8月，沙特阿美在各大洲上調(diào)油價，多數(shù)情況下超出了一般市場的預(yù)期。此舉傳達了一個相當直接的信息，即沙特阿美不希望歐佩克+的集體行動停止，也不會增加產(chǎn)量，超過配額。其他國家的石油公司在不同程度上也紛紛效仿。現(xiàn)在，隨著歐佩克+協(xié)議再次活躍起來，這樣做完全合情合理。盡管歐洲和北美煉油業(yè)務(wù)的整體利潤率似乎要健康得多，但亞洲煉油運營商的興趣最大，是沙特原油的主要市場。迪拜M1-M3期貨的月間現(xiàn)貨溢價上月擴大了約60美分/桶，因此普遍預(yù)期8月份價格漲幅將大致與此一致。然而，沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)將“阿拉伯超輕”(Arab Super Light)原油價格按月上調(diào)了1美元/桶(相對于阿曼/迪拜的平均價格溢價3.85美元)，其他所有級別的原油價格則按月上調(diào)了0.8美元/桶。這種全面漲價的奇怪之處在于，輕、重品級之間缺乏差別。在2020年價格暴跌的背景下，價差趨平后，這是2021年的總體主要趨勢之一。

　　沙特阿美在歐洲也采取了同樣的舉措。西北歐所有品類的配方價格均按月上漲0.8美元/桶，而美國出口價格自7月起上漲20美分/桶，阿拉伯特輕質(zhì)原油價格上漲40美分/桶除外。問題在于，西方經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟正常化對輕質(zhì)原油的影響不同于對重原油的影響，即富含石腦油的品級成為原油品級中需求最大的部分。盡管整個亞太地區(qū)的油價持續(xù)走軟，但8月份的油價上漲導(dǎo)致亞洲阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油相對阿曼/迪拜原油(Oman/Dubai)均價升至每桶1.20美元的9年高點。

　　阿聯(lián)酋的基準城市Murban走了一條不同的道路，盡管總體結(jié)果與直接競爭對手阿拉伯超輕能源幾乎沒有什么不同。IFAD 2021年8月Murban價格定為每桶72.34美元，比迪拜月平均現(xiàn)金價格高出1.28美元。雖然交易所會自動計算Murban OSP的平均值，但ADNOC會手動調(diào)整其他等級，以反映當前的市場狀況。在這里，ADNOC更符合大勢所趨，超越Das，將Umm Lulu的價格提高了5美分，與Murban持平，同時從7月份開始，將Upper Zakum的價格降低了10美分，與Murban的價差為每桶0.6美元，這是疫情爆發(fā)以來的最低水平。

　　沙特阿美在8月份確定了中東定價的總體路線后，伊拉克SOMO就沒有什么動力偏離既定路線，但它仍試圖增加一層細微差別。伊拉克石油公司將巴士拉輕油和巴士拉中油在亞洲的價格每月上調(diào)80美分，同時將巴士拉重油每桶上調(diào)75美分，至比阿曼/迪拜平均價格低0.65美元/桶，從而減輕了對最嚴重的打擊。SOMO的歐洲原油價格對買家更加友好，其旗艦級原油價格將上調(diào)55-65美分/桶，基爾庫克原油價格將從7月開始展期。2021年8月的oss數(shù)據(jù)再次反映出，高產(chǎn)量的品級應(yīng)比富含石腦油的品級的月環(huán)比增幅更小。

　　科威特仿效沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司的定價，將KEB 8月OSP每桶上調(diào)80美分，至較阿曼/迪拜平均水平溢價2.05美元，保持了較阿拉伯中型原油每桶10美分的折扣，較巴士拉輕質(zhì)原油每桶20美分的折扣。盡管科威特的產(chǎn)量基線確實從281萬桶/天提高到了296萬桶/天，但其當前的出口能力可能會因電力峰值需求而減少。由于普遍依賴伴生天然氣發(fā)電，受配額限制的石油生產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致可用發(fā)電的天然氣數(shù)量下降，而此時正值科威特艱難應(yīng)對有記錄以來最溫暖的一個夏季。其結(jié)果是，科威特的原油消耗量再次開始上升(接近每日20萬桶)，而此前該國的電力需求在本月多次達到歷史最高水平。假設(shè)，進口液化天然氣可能會挽救科威特(它確實開始進口液化天然氣)，但過高的液化天然氣價格限制了這個中東國家這樣做的空間。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Why Saudi Arabia Hiked Oil Prices So Aggressively

　　The failure of the OPEC+ talks and the subsequent (albeit gradual) rapprochement of the sides coincided with Middle Eastern NOCs setting their August 2021 official selling prices. The connection between the OPEC+ talks and Saudi Arabia’s expectations was visible in that Saudi Aramco did not issue its official prices up until the last point, publishing them only when the Vienna meeting was definitely and certifiably called off. The delay of Saudi Arabia’s month-on-month hikes only underscores the intent; by hiking August prices across all continents, in most cases beyond the general market’s anticipations, Aramco put across a fairly straightforward message that it does not want the collective OPEC+ action to halt and it will not ramp up production beyond its quota. Other national oil companies followed suit, to varying degrees, and now, with the OPEC+ deal alive and kicking again, it all made perfect sense to do so. Even though overall refining margins seem much healthier in Europe and North America, it was the Asian OSPs that generated the most interest, the main market outlet for Saudi barrels. The inter-month backwardation on Dubai M1-M3 futures widened last month by some 60 cents per barrel, therefore the general expectation was that the increments for August prices would be roughly along those lines. Saudi Aramco, however, raised Arab Super Light by $1 per barrel (to a $3.85 premium vs Oman/Dubai average) and all the other grades by $0.8 per barrel month-on-month. The odd thing about such an across-the-board move was the lack of differentiation between lighter and heavier grades, one of the main trends of 2021 overall after the flattening of differentials on the back of the 2020 price slump.

　　Saudi Aramco went for the same move in Europe, too. Formula prices for Northwest Europe were hiked by $0.8 per barrel month-on-month across the board for all grades, whilst US-bound prices were increased by 20 cents per barrel from July, with the exception of Arab Extra Light which was raised by 40 cents per barrel m-o-m. The issue is that the economic normalization that has been happening in western economies impacted lighter ends differently than it did the heavier yields – namely, grades rich in naphtha became the most in-demand segment of the crude spectrum. Bereft of nuance, the August price hike has led to Asian Arab Heavy prices reaching a 9-year high at $1.20 per barrel premium against the Oman/Dubai average, despite a protracted heavy-end weakness across the Asia Pacific.

　　The UAE benchmark Murban has followed a different route, even though the overall result was hardly different from its direct peer Arab Extra Light. The IFAD price for August 2021 Murban prices was set at $72.34 per barrel, some $1.28 per barrel above the cash Dubai monthly average. Whilst the exchange naturally calculates the average Murban OSP, the other grades are manually tweaked by ADNOC to reflect current market conditions. Here ADNOC was more in line with the general trend, rolling over Das, hiking Umm Lulu by 5 cents to parity with Murban, all the while dropping Upper Zakum by 10 cents from July to a differential of -$0.6 per barrel to Murban, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. Upper Zakum, being the heaviest of ADNOC’s major streams at 34° API, is certainly facing a much harder task of finding market outlets than the light sweet Murban.

　　once Saudi Aramco set the overall course for Middle Eastern pricing in August, the Iraqi SOMO had little incentive to diverge from the charted course yet it still tried to add a layer of nuance. The Iraqi state oil marketer hiked Asia-bound prices by 80 cents per barrel month-on-month for Basrah Light and Basrah Medium, whilst increasing Basrah Heavy by 75 cents per barrel to a -$0.65 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai average, i.e. softening the blow on the heaviest of streams. SOMO’s European prices were even more buyer-friendly, seeing a 55-65 cents per barrel hike for its flagship grades and rolling over Kirkuk prices from July. once again, the notion that heavy-yield-rich grades should see a smaller month-on-month increase than those rich in naphtha found its reflection in the August 2021 OSPs.

　　Kuwait mirrored Saudi Aramco’s pricing and hiked its KEB August OSP by 80 cents per barrel to a 2.05 per barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average, keeping the 10 cents per barrel discount to Arab Medium and the 20 cents per barrel discount to Basrah Light. Whilst Kuwait did get a production baseline hike, from 2.81mbpd to 2.96mbpd, its immediate export capacities might be curtailed by peak power demand. Generally reliant on associated gas for its power generation, quota-restricted oil production has triggered a decline in gas available for power generation just as Kuwait has been struggling to cope with one of its warmest summers on record. As a result, crude burns started rising in Kuwait again (getting closer to 0.2mbpd) on the heels of the country hitting several all-time peaks in power demand over the course of this month. Hypothetically, LNG imports might save the day for Kuwait (and it did indeed start importing LNG), however the exorbitantly high prices of liquefied gas limit the Middle Eastern nation’s space in doing so.

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