據7月8日Oil Monster消息：美國能源信息署(EIA)周三表示，預計2021年美國原油日產量將減少21萬桶，降至1110萬桶，降幅小于此前預計的23萬桶。
在石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)及其盟友限制產量的推動下，油價已反彈至約三年來的最高水平。
油價上漲促使一些美國生產商增加鉆井活動，6月份鉆機總數連續11個月上升。然而，這是自2020年9月以來最低的月度增長。
EIA稱，未來幾個月，全球石油產量(主要來自歐佩克+成員國)的增幅預計將超過全球石油消費量。
該機構表示：“我們預計產量增加將減少過去一年大部分時間持續出現的全球石油庫存減少，并將油價維持在目前水平，2021年下半年平均每桶72美元。”
EIA表示，預計到2022年，歐佩克+和美國致密油產量的增長以及其他供應的增加，將超過全球石油消費的增長，并導致油價下跌。
預計美國石油產量平均為1185萬桶/天，高于2021年預計的1110萬桶/天。
該機構預計，2021年美國石油和其他液體燃料消耗量將增加152萬桶/天，至1964萬桶/天，而此前預估為增加149萬桶/天。
2022年美國石油需求預計將增加104萬桶/天，至2,068萬桶/天，此前預估為增加100萬桶/天。
在全球范圍內，預計2022年液體燃料的消耗量將增加370萬桶/天，達到1.014億桶/天，將超過2019年的水平。
馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster
原文如下：
U.S. 2021 Crude Output to Decline Less Than Previously Forecast
U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.10 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 230,000 bpd.
Oil prices have rebounded to their highest levels in about three years, helped by output curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.
The rise has prompted some U.S. producers to increase drilling activity, with total rig counts rising for an 11th consecutive month in June. However, that was the smallest monthly increase since September 2020.
In the coming months, global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members, is expected to increase by more than global oil consumption, the EIA said.
"We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72 per barrel during the second half of 2021," the agency said.
In 2022, EIA said it expects growth in production from OPEC+ and U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply additions, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices.
U.S. output is expected to average 11.85 million bpd, up from a forecast average of 11.10 million bpd in 2021.
The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.52 million bpd to 19.64 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.49 million bpd.
For 2022, U.S. demand is forecast to rise by 1.04 million bpd to 20.68 million bpd, compared to the previous forecast for a rise of 1 million bpd.
Globally, consumption of liquid fuels is expected to rise by an additional 3.7 million bpd in 2022 to 101.4 million bpd, which would surpass 2019 levels.
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