據7月8日oil now消息：由于本周主要產油國之間的談判破裂可能導致目前的產量協議被放棄，石油供應出現不確定性，周四油價連續第三天下跌。

　　格林尼治時間06:44，布倫特原油期貨價格下跌23美分，至每桶73.20美元，跌幅0.3%；美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格下跌33美分，至每桶71.87美元，跌幅0.5%。

　　在歐佩克與其盟友之間的談判破裂后，布倫特原油價格自周一收盤以來下跌了約5%，因為實際領導人沙特阿拉伯拒絕了阿聯酋根據該組織的減產協議提高產量的要求。

　　OANDA高級市場分析師Edward Moya表示：“石油市場正在關注8月的石油供應短缺，并預計歐佩克+協議將在2022年4月協議到期之前破裂，因為其他成員國將要求進一步讓步以確保更多的市場份額。”

　　自冠狀病毒大流行期間需求暴跌以來，歐佩克+已經限制供應一年多。

　　該組織維持每天近600萬桶的減產，并有望增加供應，但為期三天的會議未能消除沙特和阿聯酋之間的分歧。

　　三名歐佩克+消息人士周三表示，俄羅斯正試圖在沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋之間進行斡旋，以幫助達成一項提高石油產量的協議。

　　美國石油庫存的大幅下降為油價提供了一些支撐。

　　兩名市場消息人士援引美國石油協會(API)的數據稱，截至7月2日當周，美國這個全球最大石油消費國的石油庫存減少了800萬桶，而路透調查分析師的預估為減少400萬桶。

　　美國政府庫存數據將于周四公布，推遲至7月4日美國獨立日假期后的一天。

　　美國能源信息署周三表示，今年美國石油產量下降預計將有所緩解，日產量將為1110萬桶，較2020年減少21萬桶，而此前的預測為減少23萬桶。

　　然而，對冠狀病毒的擔憂令油價承壓，全球第四大石油消費國日本將宣布東京地區進入緊急狀態，直至8月22日，因新一輪感染出現，韓國報告了有史以來最高的新冠肺炎病例。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 oil now

　　原文如下：

　　Oil prices fall third day in a row amid OPEC+ uncertainty

　　Oil prices fell for a third day on Thursday amid uncertainty over supply after the collapse this week of talks among major producers which could potentially cause the current output agreement to be abandoned.

　　Brent crude oil futures slipped by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.20 a barrel by 0644GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 33 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.87 a barrel.

　　Brent prices have fallen about 5% since Monday’s close after talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, fell apart when de facto leader Saudi Arabia refused demands from the United Arab Emirates to raise its output under the group’s supply cut agreement.

　　“The oil market is looking beyond the oil supply deficit in August and expecting the OPEC+ agreement to fall apart well before April 2022 when the agreement expires as other member countries will ask for further concessions to secure more market share,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

　　OPEC+ has restrained supply for more than a year since demand crashed during the coronavirus pandemic.

　　The group is maintaining nearly 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of output cuts and was expected to add to supply, but three days of meetings failed to close divisions between the Saudis and the Emiratis.

　　Russia is trying to mediate between Saudi Arabia and the UAE to help strike a deal to raise oil output, three OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday.

　　Prices found some support from a large drop in oil inventories in the United States.

　　Oil stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil user fell by 8 million barrels for the week ended July 2, according to two market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, compared with an estimate of a 4 million barrel fall by analysts in a Reuters poll.

　　Government inventory data is due on Thursday, pushed back a day following the U.S. Fourth of July holiday on Monday.

　　U.S. oil production declines this year are expected to lessen with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying on Wednesday that output will be 11.10 million bpd in 2021, down by 210,000 bpd from 2020, versus its previous forecast for a drop of 230,000 bpd.

　　Concerns over the coronavirus, however, weighed on prices, with Japan, the world’s fourth-largest oil user, set to declare a state of emergency for the Tokyo area through Aug. 22 amid a new wave of infections and South Korea reporting its highest ever daily COVID-19 cases.

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