據(jù)烴加工2021年6月29日?qǐng)?bào)道， 正如我們的《石油狀況周報(bào)》(WPSR)提供的產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)旅游和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致了汽油、餾分油和航空燃料的需求增加。 盡管這三種石油產(chǎn)品的需求都比去年的低點(diǎn)有所增長(zhǎng)，但不同石油產(chǎn)品的需求增長(zhǎng)程度有所不同。
根據(jù)6月23日的WPSR(包括截至6月18日的數(shù)據(jù))，這三種燃料的需求均低于2019年同一周(美國(guó)開(kāi)始開(kāi)展COVID-19緩解工作的前一年)的需求。 在截至6月18日的那一周里，汽油的四周平均需求是2019年同期四周平均需求的94%，餾分油的需求是98%，航空燃料的需求是74%。 在去年的最低點(diǎn)，汽油需求降至2019年水平的56%，餾分油需求降至2019年水平的80%，航空燃料需求降至2019年水平的31%。
《石油狀況周報(bào)》根據(jù)初級(jí)供應(yīng)鏈交付的石油產(chǎn)品量來(lái)估算產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)量。 雖然產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)是消費(fèi)的一個(gè)合理的替代指標(biāo)，但每周數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)顯示出由于臨時(shí)需求、貿(mào)易或庫(kù)存波動(dòng)而產(chǎn)生的波動(dòng)。 因此，四周的滾動(dòng)平均值通常能更好地反映長(zhǎng)期消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)。
根據(jù)四周的滾動(dòng)平均值，美國(guó)汽油需求從去年3月13日(當(dāng)時(shí)特朗普總統(tǒng)宣布全國(guó)緊急狀態(tài))結(jié)束的一周的930萬(wàn)桶/天下降到了去年4月24日的530萬(wàn)桶/天。 然而，今年3月開(kāi)始，需求再次開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，5月21日當(dāng)周的消費(fèi)量自去年3月20日以來(lái)首次超過(guò)了900萬(wàn)桶/天。 截至6月18日的一周，汽油產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)量平均為910萬(wàn)桶/天，為2019年同期水平的94%。
由于個(gè)人旅行的增加，美國(guó)航空燃油的需求也從去年的低點(diǎn)有所增加，但還沒(méi)有像汽油和餾分油那樣接近2019年的水平。 國(guó)際旅行限制、對(duì)其他國(guó)家COVID-19病例增加的擔(dān)憂以及商務(wù)旅行減少可能是導(dǎo)致航空燃料需求回升相對(duì)較慢的原因。 此外，如果旅客繼續(xù)避免乘坐飛機(jī)，航空燃料需求的增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)低于汽油和餾出燃料。 截至6月18日的一周，航空燃料產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)量平均為130萬(wàn)桶/天，為2019年同期水平的74%。
李峻 編譯自 烴加工
原文如下；
Distillate demand returned to 2019 levels earlier than gasoline and jet fuel demand
The combination of increases in both travel and economic activity in the United States has contributed to more demand for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel, as reflected in the product supplied data of our Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR). Although demand has increased for all three of these products from their 2020 lows, the extent of the demand growth has differed by product.
According to the June 23 WPSR, which includes data through June 18, demand for all three fuels was lower than during the same week in 2019, the year before COVID-19 mitigation efforts began in the United States. For the week ending June 18, the four-week average demand for gasoline was 94% of the four-week average for the same week in 2019, distillate was 98%, and jet fuel was 74%. At their lowest points in 2020, gasoline demand fell to 56% of its corresponding 2019 level, distillate demand to 80%, and jet fuel demand to 31%.
We estimate product supplied by the volume of petroleum products delivered out of the primary supply chain. Although product supplied is a reasonable proxy for consumption, weekly data may show volatility due to temporary demand, trade, or inventory fluctuations. As a result, a four-week rolling average often provides a better indication of longer-term consumption trends.
based on rolling four-week averages, U.S. gasoline demand fell from 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) during the week of March 13, 2020, (when President Trump declared a national emergency) to 5.3 million b/d on April 24, 2020. Beginning in March 2021, however, demand started growing again, and consumption rose above 9.0 million b/d during the week of May 21 for the first time since March 20, 2020. For the week ending June 18, gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million b/d, 94% of the 2019 level for the corresponding week.
Demand for U.S. jet fuel has also increased from its 2020 lows as personal travel has increased, but it has not approached its 2019 levels as closely as gasoline and distillate have. International travel restrictions, concerns about rising COVID-19 case counts in other countries, and reduced business travel have probably contributed to the relatively slower return in jet fuel demand. In addition, the growth in jet fuel demand may be slower than gasoline and distillate fuel if travelers continue to avoid flying. For the week ending June 18, jet fuel product supplied averaged 1.3 million b/d, 74% of 2019 levels for the corresponding week.
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