據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月2日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國石油市場正在收緊，這是因?yàn)樯虡I(yè)原油庫存正在快速下降，推動(dòng)WTI原油期貨曲線的時(shí)間價(jià)差擴(kuò)大。
這條曲線正加強(qiáng)到現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，這是一種暗示供應(yīng)趨緊的市場狀態(tài)，近期期貨合約的價(jià)格高于遠(yuǎn)期合約。
近幾日來，最近交割的合約與較晚交割的合約的溢價(jià)一直在擴(kuò)大，表明即期供應(yīng)正在收緊。 例如，WTI現(xiàn)貨與11月合約的價(jià)差上周五早間為3.40美元。 據(jù)彭博社估計(jì)，這是自2018年以來即期價(jià)格相對(duì)于四個(gè)月期貨價(jià)格的最大溢價(jià)。
現(xiàn)貨市場趨緊反映出美國商業(yè)原油庫存持續(xù)下降，國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量相對(duì)持平，美國原油出口相對(duì)較高，盡管WTI對(duì)布倫特原油的折扣較小。
美國能源信息署(EIA)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至6月25日當(dāng)周，美國商業(yè)原油庫存減少了670萬桶。 這是原油庫存連續(xù)第六周下降。
商業(yè)原油庫存總量為4.523億桶，比去年同期下降了15.2%。 與兩年前新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的那個(gè)時(shí)候相比，也下降了3.4%。
俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的原油庫存也在下降，進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)了期貨市場的反彈。 截至6月25日的一周內(nèi)，庫欣原油庫存減少了150萬桶，至4030萬桶。 這與去年同期相比下降了11.7%，與2019年同期相比下降了23.3%。
美國煉油廠也在提高運(yùn)行率，目前的運(yùn)行率為92.9%，中西部的煉油廠運(yùn)行率為98.2%。 這甚至高于Covid-19前這個(gè)時(shí)候97.4%的產(chǎn)能利用率。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Are Drawing Very Fast
The U.S. oil market is tightening as commercial crude inventories are declining at a fast clip and driving wider time spreads in the WTI Crude futures curve.
The curve is strengthening into backwardation, the state of the market signaling tighter supplies with the prices of the nearer futures contracts higher than those further out in time.
The premium of the nearest contract to those for later delivery has been widening in recent days, suggesting that immediate supply is tightening. The spread between the cash WTI and the November contract, for example, was $3.40 early on Friday. This is the widest premium of prompt prices to the four-month futures price since 2018, according to Bloomberg estimates.
The tighter prompt market reflects the continuous decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, the relatively flat domestic crude oil production, and the relatively high U.S. oil exports despite the narrow WTI discount to Brent.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 6.7 million barrels for the week to June 25, as per Energy Information Administration data. This was the sixth consecutive weekly drawdown in crude stockpiles.
Total commercial crude inventories at 452.3 million barrels are now 15.2 percent lower than in the same week last year. They are also 3.4 percent lower compared to this time two years ago, before the pandemic.
Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma – the designated delivery point for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts – are also falling, further boosting the rally in the futures market. Crude stocks at Cushing fell by 1.5 million barrels in the week to June 25 to stand at 40.3 million barrels. This was an 11.7-percent decline compared to this time last year and a drop of 23.3 percent compared to the same week in 2019.
Refineries are also increasing run rates, now operating at 92.9 percent capacity, with those in the Midwest operating at 98.2 percent of their operable capacity. This is higher even compared to the 97.4-percent capacity utilization at this time of the year in the pre-COVID 2019.
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