據(jù)7月6日CNBC報(bào)道，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國之間的沖突，讓人們對這個(gè)能源聯(lián)盟的未來產(chǎn)生了質(zhì)疑，歐佩克+陷入危機(jī)。
上周的會(huì)議，出人意料地未能就石油生產(chǎn)政策達(dá)成一致，歐佩克+突然放棄了周一重新召開會(huì)議的計(jì)劃，并且，該組織沒有設(shè)定恢復(fù)談判的新日期。這意味著，還沒有就7月之后可能增加原油產(chǎn)量的決定達(dá)成一致。在全球燃料需求從新冠肺炎疫情中復(fù)蘇之際，石油市場處于不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft在一份研究報(bào)告中稱:“歐佩克+遭遇了，自去年沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間注定失敗的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)以來，最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)。據(jù)報(bào)道，幕后談判仍在繼續(xù)，但未來幾天，對阿聯(lián)酋將繼續(xù)留在歐佩克的質(zhì)疑，可能會(huì)更多。阿聯(lián)酋和沙特的爭端似乎不僅僅是關(guān)于石油政策，阿布扎比似乎有意走出沙特阿拉伯的陰影，在全球事務(wù)中規(guī)劃自己的道路。”
由中東原油生產(chǎn)國主導(dǎo)的歐佩克+同意在2020年實(shí)施大規(guī)模原油減產(chǎn)，以支撐油價(jià)，當(dāng)時(shí)因新冠肺炎疫情，導(dǎo)致了燃料需求收到了歷史性的沖擊。
在阿聯(lián)酋的盟友沙特阿拉伯的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，歐佩克+每月舉行一次會(huì)議，以決定生產(chǎn)政策。
歐佩克聯(lián)盟的團(tuán)結(jié)出現(xiàn)消散危機(jī)
上周五，歐佩克+就一項(xiàng)從8月開始，以每月40萬桶/日的方式增加石油產(chǎn)量，至年底達(dá)到增產(chǎn)約200萬桶/日的提議進(jìn)行了投票。該組織還提議將剩余的減產(chǎn)延長至2022年底。然而，阿聯(lián)酋拒絕了該計(jì)劃，該國希望提高配額基準(zhǔn)，以增加國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量。
PVM oil Associates的石油分析師Tamas Varga在一份研究報(bào)告中稱，"就目前的情況來看，歐佩克+沒有達(dá)成任何協(xié)議，今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)的產(chǎn)量將維持在7月水平。此次會(huì)議的結(jié)果將改寫近期，甚至可能是未來長期的供需格局。”
阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯之間罕見的公開對峙，促使兩國能源部長在周末進(jìn)行媒體閃電戰(zhàn)，闡述各自的立場。
阿聯(lián)酋能源和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施部長Suhail Al Mazrouei周日表示:“對我們來說，這不是一筆好交易。雖然我們愿意支持短期內(nèi)增加石油供應(yīng)，但希望在2022年前獲得更優(yōu)惠的條款。”
據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼周日對阿拉伯電視臺(tái)(Al Arabiya)表示，為了在周一達(dá)成協(xié)議，他呼吁彼此“妥協(xié)和理性”。
另外，據(jù)報(bào)道，一名白宮發(fā)言人周一表示，美國政府正在推動(dòng)“妥協(xié)解決方案”。美國不是歐佩克的成員國，但考慮到這些談判對明年原油市場的潛在影響，美國一直在密切關(guān)注最新一輪談判。
在回應(yīng)周一歐佩克+會(huì)議未達(dá)成協(xié)議而延期的消息時(shí)，Again Capital創(chuàng)始合伙人約翰?基爾達(dá)夫(John Kilduff)表示:“歐佩克的團(tuán)結(jié)今天瓦解了。疫情使它們團(tuán)結(jié)在一起，而現(xiàn)在它們正在分裂。阿聯(lián)酋堅(jiān)持要提高底線，希望能夠獲得更多生產(chǎn)配額。現(xiàn)在有趣的是，誰會(huì)倒下。阿聯(lián)酋可能是倒下的‘第一張多米諾骨牌’。”
石油價(jià)格攀升至多年來的最高點(diǎn)
油價(jià)攀升的消息進(jìn)一步推高了油價(jià)。國際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格周二早盤報(bào)每桶77.34美元，當(dāng)日上漲0.2%，美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價(jià)格報(bào)每桶76.36美元，上漲約1.6%。
WTI原油價(jià)格一度達(dá)到76.98美元，這是2014年11月以來的最高價(jià)格。今年上半年，受新冠肺炎疫苗的推出、封鎖措施的逐步放松和歐佩克+的大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)的支持影響，油價(jià)上漲了45%以上。
Capital Economics助理大宗商品經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Samuel Burman表示，歐佩克產(chǎn)油國下個(gè)月可能將石油產(chǎn)量提高到超過配額的水平，因成員國“試圖利用”油價(jià)的上漲。
他補(bǔ)充道：“除了阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯之間的出現(xiàn)分歧之外，阿布扎比可能對俄羅斯沒有遵守歐佩克的產(chǎn)量配額感到“有些惱火”。
Burman表示：“非歐佩克成員國俄羅斯根本沒有采取任何補(bǔ)償性減產(chǎn)措施，目前日產(chǎn)量過剩約10萬桶。我們認(rèn)為，這場涉及阿聯(lián)酋的爭端，增加了整個(gè)協(xié)議破裂的可能性，這顯然將對我們的近期價(jià)格預(yù)測帶來下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC
原文如下：
Is this the end of OPEC? How Saudi Arabia and UAE infighting threatens the future of the oil alliance
Oil producer group OPEC has been plunged into crisis, with bitter infighting between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates raising questions about the future of the energy alliance.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers, abruptly abandoned plans to reconvene on Monday after last week’s meetings unexpectedly failed to broker a deal on oil production policy. The group did not set a new date to resume talks.
It means no agreement has been reached on a possible increase in crude production beyond the end of July, leaving oil markets in a state of limbo just as global fuel demand recovers from the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
“OPEC+ has been thrown its most serious crisis since last year’s ill-fated price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a research note.
“Back-channel talks reportedly are continuing, but questions about UAE’s commitment to remaining in OPEC will likely grow in the coming days.”
The UAE-Saudi dispute appeared to be about more than oil policy, Croft said, with Abu Dhabi “seemingly intent on stepping outside Saudi Arabia’s shadow and charting its own course in global affairs.”
OPEC+, which is dominated by Middle East crude producers, agreed to implement massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.
Led by Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the UAE, OPEC+ has met monthly to decide on production policy.
OPEC solidarity ‘dissolved’
The disarray comes after OPEC+ on Friday voted on a proposal to increase oil production by roughly 2 million barrels per day between August and the end of the year in 400,000 barrels per day monthly installments. It also proposed to extend the remaining output cuts to the end of 2022.
The plans were rejected by the UAE, however, which wants a higher baseline to its quota to allow for more domestic production.
“No agreement was reached and as we stand now the OPEC+ alliance, if it is still the right word to describe the group, will produce at the July level for the rest of the year,” Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note.
“The [non-] outcome of the meeting re-writes the supply-demand landscape for the near and potentially for the distant future,” he added.
The rare public stand-off between the UAE and Saudi Arabia saw energy ministers from both countries engaging in a media blitz over the weekend to outline their respective positions.
“For us, it wasn’t a good deal,” UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday. He added that while the country was willing to support a short-term increase in oil supply, it wants better terms through 2022.
Speaking to the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television channel on Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman called for “compromise and rationality” in order to reach a deal on Monday, Reuters reported.
Separately, a White House spokesperson reportedly said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s administration was pushing for a “compromise solution.” The U.S. is not a member of OPEC (which stands for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) but it has been closely monitoring the latest round of talks given their potential impact on crude markets into next year.
Responding to the news that the OPEC+ meeting had been adjourned without a deal on Monday, John Kilduff, a founding partner at Again Capital, said: “The Opec solidarity dissolved today.”
“The pandemic held them together and now the post pandemic is breaking them apart. The UAE is sticking to their guns on wanting their baseline raised. They want to be able to produce more,” he told CNBC via email.
“Now the fun starts as to who breaks away,” Kilduff said, noting the UAE could be the “first domino” to fall.
OPEC was not immediately available to respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC on Tuesday.
Oil prices climb to multi-year highs
The news pushed oil prices even higher. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $77.34 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up 0.2% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $76.36, around 1.6% higher.
At one point, WTI crude hit as high as $76.98, which was the highest price since November 2014.
Oil prices rallied more than 45% in the first half of the year, supported by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, a gradual easing of lockdown measures and massive production cuts from OPEC+.
Samuel Burman, assistant commodities economist at Capital Economics, said OPEC producers were likely to increase oil production above quota next month as member states “seek to take advantage” of higher oil prices.
In addition to a rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, he said Abu Dhabi was probably “somewhat irritated” that Russia hadn’t been complying with OPEC’s production quotas.
Burman said non-OPEC leader Russia hadn’t introduced any compensatory cuts at all and was currently overproducing by around 100,000 barrels per day. “We think that this spat involving the UAE increases the chances that the entire agreement falls apart which would clearly pose a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts.”
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