據(jù)世界石油網(wǎng)站7月5日消息 布倫特油價(jià)自2018年以來(lái)首次升至每桶77美元以上，此前歐佩克+未能就恢復(fù)削減的產(chǎn)量達(dá)成協(xié)議，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)比預(yù)期更為緊張。
倫敦期貨價(jià)格漲幅高達(dá)1.2%。該集團(tuán)的石油部長(zhǎng)們未能達(dá)成妥協(xié)，維持目前8月份的產(chǎn)量限制，并在需求從疫情中恢復(fù)之際，剝奪了市場(chǎng)所需的額外產(chǎn)量。
TD證券分析師丹尼爾加利在電話中表示：“從目前的情況來(lái)看，這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)看好油價(jià)的情況，我們應(yīng)該看到能源市場(chǎng)收緊的速度比我們最近幾個(gè)月預(yù)期的要快。”
在周一的談判之前，由于沙特堅(jiān)持從8月份開(kāi)始提高產(chǎn)量，并將歐佩克+協(xié)議延長(zhǎng)至2022年底，而阿聯(lián)酋則為自己尋求更好的條件，談判從上周開(kāi)始推遲。該集團(tuán)未能增加供應(yīng)，將進(jìn)一步擠壓本已緊張的市場(chǎng)，引發(fā)對(duì)通脹的擔(dān)憂。
大多數(shù)歐佩克成員國(guó)支持一項(xiàng)提議，即從8月份起每月增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶/天，并將更廣泛的供應(yīng)協(xié)議的到期時(shí)間推遲到明年年底。為了同意延期，阿聯(lián)酋試圖改變用于計(jì)算配額的基準(zhǔn)線，此舉可能使其日產(chǎn)量多增加70萬(wàn)桶。
6月原油連續(xù)第三個(gè)月上漲，因?yàn)閺V泛的疫苗接種幫助恢復(fù)了需求，而歐佩克+抑制了供應(yīng)，但油價(jià)創(chuàng)下兩年多來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，引發(fā)了人們對(duì)其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的擔(dān)憂，白宮已經(jīng)對(duì)汽油價(jià)格上漲表示擔(dān)憂。
盡管歐洲和美國(guó)的需求信號(hào)強(qiáng)勁，但病毒在亞洲部分地區(qū)再次蔓延，導(dǎo)致行動(dòng)受到更多限制。
摩根士丹利估計(jì)，從5月至6月，全球石油日需求將增加300萬(wàn)桶。由于其它地區(qū)的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)甚微，即便是歐佩克提出的增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，也很可能使市場(chǎng)陷入赤字，這將支撐布倫特原油價(jià)格在該行今年下半年每桶75-80美元的預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)間內(nèi)。
吳恒磊編譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
://www.worldoil.com/
Brent crude passes $77 as OPEC fails to reach new oil output deal
(Bloomberg) - Brent oil prices rose above $77 a barrel for the first time since 2018 after OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on bringing back curtailed output, leaving the market with tighter supplies than expected.
Futures rose as much as 1.2% in London. The group’s oil ministers were unable to reach a compromise, keeping current production limits in place for August and depriving the market from the extra barrels it needs as demand recovers from the pandemic.
“As things stand now, this is quite a bullish scenario for oil prices,” TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali said by phone. “We should see the energy market tighten up at a faster pace than we anticipated in recent months.”
Talks on Monday followed a delay from last week as the Saudis stood firm about raising output starting in August and extending the OPEC+ agreement to the end of 2022, while the United Arab Emirates sought better terms for itself. The failure by the group to increase supply will further squeeze an already tight market, raising concerns over inflation.
Most OPEC+ members backed a proposal to increase output by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August, and push back the expiry of the broader supply deal into the end of next year. To agree to an extension, the UAE sought to change the baseline that’s used to calculate its quota, a move that could allow it to boost daily production by an extra 700,000 barrels.
Crude rose for a third month in June as widespread Covid-19 vaccinations have helped revive demand while OPEC+ has curbed supply. But prices at the highest in more than two years have raised worries over its impact on the global economy, and the White House is already voicing concern about rising gasoline prices.
While demand signals are strong in Europe and the U.S., the virus is spreading again in parts of Asia, resulting in increased restrictions on movement.
Morgan Stanley estimates global daily oil demand is set to increase by 3 million barrels from the May-June period to December. With little supply growth elsewhere, even the proposed increase from OPEC+ will likely keep the market in deficit. That will support Brent prices within the bank’s forecast range of $75 to $80 a barrel in the second half of this year.
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