據能源世界網6月30日新德里報道，日前，高盛大宗商品研究公司(Goldman Sachs Commodities Research)表示，由于供應風險迫近，歐佩克及其盟國即歐佩克+需要增加石油產量，以在2022年前平衡市場。
該研究在6月29日的一份報告中表示，預計到年底，石油需求將再增加220萬桶/天，造成500萬桶/天的供應缺口，遠遠超過潛在國家與頁巖生產商的產能。
高盛表示，盡管新的大規模感染浪潮可能減緩市場再平衡，但我們預計OPEC+仍將采取增產策略，因全球其他地區供應面臨下行風險，表明原油和上游行業的前景比成品油和下游行業更為強勁。
該公司預計，歐佩克+產油國將連續幾個月增加50萬桶/天的供應量，屆時該組織將于7月1日召開會議，討論德爾塔新冠病毒變體的威脅、恢復生產以及頁巖生產反應仍然緩慢等問題。
冠狀病毒的 Delta 變體更具傳染性，可能比其他變體更受關注。
然而，歐佩克秘書長穆罕默德?巴爾金多(Mohammad Barkindo)周二表示，2021年石油需求預計將增加600萬桶/天，其中500萬桶/天將在今年下半年增加，這提振了復蘇希望。
郝芬 譯自 能源世界網
原文如下：
Goldman says more OPEC+ supply needed to balance oil market
Goldman Sachs Commodities Research said more oil production is needed from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to balance the market by 2022 as supply risk looms elsewhere.
The U.S. bank forecast oil demand to rise by an additional 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) by year-end, leaving a 5 mbpd supply shortfall, well in excess of what the potential country and shale producers can bring online, it said in a note dated June 29.
"While a large new infection wave could slow the market rebalancing, we expect OPEC+ to remain tactical in its output hikes with downside risks to global supply elsewhere pointing to a more robust outlook for crude and the upstream sector than petroleum products and the downstream sector," Goldman said.
The bank sees a base case of 0.5 mbpd supply increase from OPEC+ producers for consecutive months, when the group meets on July 1 to discuss the threat of the Delta COVID variant, the potential return of Iran production and still slow shale response.
The Delta variant of the coronavirus is more infectious and is likely to gain more traction over other variants.
However, boosting broad recovery hopes, Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary-General of OPEC said on Tuesday that demand is expected to rise by 6 mbpd in 2021, with 5 mbpd of that in the second half of the year.
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