據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)6月11日新加坡報(bào)道，因?yàn)橄拇罅刻烊粴獾膰?guó)家大量消耗以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的反彈，以及疫情措施放松則恢復(fù)了印度的工業(yè)需求，LNG價(jià)格有望進(jìn)一步上漲。

　　石油和煤炭?jī)r(jià)格上漲也幫助推高了全球天然氣價(jià)格，亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在短短3個(gè)月內(nèi)翻了一番。

　　本周早些時(shí)候高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，我們認(rèn)為，這是受亞洲某國(guó)強(qiáng)勁發(fā)電需求帶動(dòng)的亞洲液化天然氣供需緊張推動(dòng)的。與此同時(shí)，韓國(guó)的核電維護(hù)達(dá)到峰值，而受到新冠肺炎打擊的印度液化天然氣需求已企穩(wěn)。

　　5月份該國(guó)進(jìn)口了逾700萬(wàn)噸液化天然氣，創(chuàng)下當(dāng)月進(jìn)口紀(jì)錄，受強(qiáng)勁工業(yè)活動(dòng)的推動(dòng)，未來(lái)兩個(gè)月進(jìn)口將增加。

　　惠譽(yù)解決方案公司表示，家庭和企業(yè)之間的燃料轉(zhuǎn)換（從煤炭）在短暫中斷后似乎恢復(fù)了勢(shì)頭，現(xiàn)在又有了一個(gè)額外的政策推動(dòng)……主要圍繞增加清潔燃料的使用和脫碳。

　　韓國(guó)最新、最大的核反應(yīng)堆 Shin Kori-4 上個(gè)月在火災(zāi)后關(guān)閉，預(yù)計(jì)這將提振液化天然氣需求。 運(yùn)營(yíng)商韓國(guó)水電核電公司（Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co ）的一名官員表示，目前尚不清楚該反應(yīng)堆何時(shí)恢復(fù)運(yùn)行。

　　日本最大的城市天然氣供應(yīng)商?hào)|京天然氣公司(Tokyo Gas)首席財(cái)務(wù)官佐藤弘文(Hirofumi Sato) 4月對(duì)路透表示，該公司可能利用液化天然氣油輪提高儲(chǔ)存能力，這可能會(huì)增加進(jìn)口。作為全球最大的液化天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)，日本的公用事業(yè)在去年冬天面臨一場(chǎng)電力危機(jī)，導(dǎo)致液化天然氣價(jià)格飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位。

　　根據(jù)Refinitiv Eikon的天氣數(shù)據(jù)顯示，未來(lái)兩周，東京、首爾和上海的溫度預(yù)計(jì)將高于平常，這將進(jìn)一步提振日本、韓國(guó)等發(fā)電廠(chǎng)天然氣需求。

　　印度官員本周表示，由于冠狀病毒感染率下降，印度政府放松了限制措施，印度天然氣消費(fèi)量繼前兩個(gè)月下降后，6月份有望恢復(fù)。

　　印度最大的天然氣管道運(yùn)營(yíng)商GAIL的總裁Manoj Jain表示，如果該國(guó)擺脫疫情，作為世界第四大液化天然氣進(jìn)口國(guó)的印度本財(cái)年的天然氣消費(fèi)量可能增長(zhǎng)6-8%。

　　惠譽(yù)解決方案表示，歐洲的液化天然氣需求也依然強(qiáng)勁，因?yàn)檫M(jìn)口液化天然氣預(yù)計(jì)將補(bǔ)充庫(kù)存水平。由于俄羅斯-烏克蘭緊張局勢(shì)加劇，以及碳市場(chǎng)飆升可能促使電力生產(chǎn)商選擇液化天然氣而非煤炭，歐洲的液化天然氣儲(chǔ)備最近觸及多年低點(diǎn)。貿(mào)易商表示，計(jì)劃內(nèi)和計(jì)劃外的供應(yīng)問(wèn)題困擾著美國(guó)、澳大利亞、馬來(lái)西亞和印尼的一些工廠(chǎng)，也在支撐價(jià)格。

　　這擠掉了巴基斯坦和泰國(guó)等對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的買(mǎi)家的部分需求，這些買(mǎi)家在7月份的貨物招標(biāo)中只收到了很高的報(bào)價(jià)。

　　凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)助理大宗商品經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家基蘭?克蘭西(Kieran Clancy)表示，總體而言，亞洲液化天然氣價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)今年均價(jià)約為7.30美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位， 2022年為7.50美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，高于去年的4.2美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。

　　他補(bǔ)充道，液化天然氣未來(lái)的需求前景依然光明，因?yàn)樗挥糜谔钛a(bǔ)目前可再生能源無(wú)法填補(bǔ)的發(fā)電缺口。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　LNG market poised for buoyant recovery with demand growing across Asia

　　Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices are poised for more gains as a certain gas-hungry country in Asia guzzles cargoes to feed a rebound in economic growth while the easing of coronavirus-induced restrictions restores industrial demand in India.

　　Higher oil and coal prices have also helped lift global gas prices with spot Asian LNG prices doubling in just three months.

　　"We believe this has been driven by a tightening of Asian LNG balances led by strong generation demand in the southern area of this country at the same time that South Korea reached peak nuclear maintenance, while Covid-hit India LNG demand has stabilized," analysts from Goldman Sachs said in a note earlier this week.

　　this country imported more than 7 million tonnes of LNG in May, a record for that month, and looks set to import more over the next two months driven by strong industrial activity.

　　"Fuel-switching (from coal) across households and businesses appears to have regained momentum after a brief hiatus, and now has an added policy boost ...that is heavily oriented around increasing clean fuels use and decarbonisation," Fitch Solutions said.

　　South Korea's newest and biggest nuclear reactor, Shin Kori-4, shut last month after a fire, which is expected to boost LNG demand. An official at operator Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co said it was not clear when the reactor would resume operations.

　　Tokyo Gas, Japan's biggest city gas provider, may boost storage capacity using LNG tankers, chief financial officer Hirofumi Sato told Reuters in April, potentially lifting imports. Utilities in Japan, the world's top LNG importer, faced a power crisis last winter which caused LNG prices to spike to record highs.

　　Temperatures in Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai are expected to be warmer than usual over the next two weeks, according to Refinitiv Eikon weather data, further boosting gas demand in Japan, South Korea etc. for power generation.

　　India's gas consumption is seen recovering in June after declining in the previous two months, as states ease restrictions in the wake of a drop in coronavirus infections, officials said this week.

　　Gas consumption in the world's fourth largest LNG importer could grow by 6% to 8% in the current fiscal year if the country emerges from the pandemic, Manoj Jain, chairman of GAIL (India), India's biggest gas pipeline operator, said.

　　Europe's LNG demand remains robust too, as imports are expected to refill storage levels which hit multi-year lows recently on pipeline supply concerns stemming from rising Russia-Ukraine tensions and a surging carbon market which may spur power producers to opt for LNG over coal, Fitch Solutions said. Supply issues, both planned and unplanned, plague some plants in the United States, Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, and are also supporting prices, traders said.

　　That's crowding out some demand from price-sensitive buyers like Pakistan and Thailand, who have received only high offers for tenders seeking cargoes for July.

　　Overall, Asia LNG prices are expected to average about $7.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2021 and $7.50 per mBtu in 2022, up from $4.20 per mBtu last year, said Kieran Clancy, assistant commodities economist at Capital Economics.

　　"The outlook for LNG demand further ahead remains bright, as it is used to plug the gaps in power generation that are not currently able to be met by renewables," he added.

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