據(jù)今日油價6月2日報道，對于油氣行業(yè)來說，這是一個艱難的時期。石油巨頭最近受到了來自四面八方的攻擊，從全球轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源的不合作的金融家和投資者，還有強硬的氣候活動家。雖然世界上主要的石油出口經(jīng)濟體不一定像石油巨頭那樣成為焦點，但這種轉(zhuǎn)變可能會對那些依賴石油的經(jīng)濟體產(chǎn)生毀滅性的影響。

　　在上個月與41位世界領導人舉行的虛擬氣候峰會上，美國公布了一項雄心勃勃的十年氣候計劃，提議到2030年將美國的溫室氣體排放量削減50-52%。這相當于美國在2015年《巴黎協(xié)定》之后承諾的26%-28%的減排目標的近一倍。

　　就在上周，雪佛龍股東投票決定進一步削減排放后，一些業(yè)內(nèi)最知名的公司遭受了三連擊，即埃克森美孚至少失去了兩個董事會席位，而荷蘭法院要求荷蘭皇家殼牌以比此前計劃更大力度和更快速度削減其溫室氣體排放。殼牌已經(jīng)承諾到2030年減少20%的溫室氣體排放，到2050年實現(xiàn)零凈排放。海牙法院要求到2030年在2019年的基礎上減排45%。

　　環(huán)保人士利用清潔能源的發(fā)展勢頭和世界各國政府的重大政策變化，向石油巨頭施加壓力。放大來看這對整個依賴石油來推動經(jīng)濟的國家會發(fā)生什么？那些嚴重依賴石油出口的經(jīng)濟體將如何應對向低碳燃料的轉(zhuǎn)變?

　　2019年，全球有40個國家出口了價值10億美元或更多的原油，伊拉克等一些國家依賴石油銷售為其90%以上的預算提供資金。依賴化石燃料的經(jīng)濟體占世界人口的近三分之一，排放了全球五分之一的溫室氣體。

　　現(xiàn)在，國際能源署(IEA)警告稱，追求凈零排放目標對許多石油出口國來說可能是災難性的。

　　這是迫在眉睫的災難

　　如果到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放的目標，歐佩克將變得根據(jù)主導地位，最終將占世界產(chǎn)量的50%以上，因為供應將集中在少數(shù)幾個國家。不幸的是，這也意味著可供分配的“蛋糕”要少得多，預計在10年多一點的時間里，這些大宗商品的年人均收入將下降多達75%。

　　根據(jù)國際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，那些油氣產(chǎn)量出口占GDP很大一部分的國家可能受到最嚴重的打擊。然而，那些適應力最差的國家，如果銷售化石燃料的收入沒有得到充分管理，例如利用現(xiàn)金向國內(nèi)其他行業(yè)進行多樣化投資，或建立主權財富基金，在海外投資以獲得長期收入，這些國家也將最先受到能源轉(zhuǎn)型的沖擊。

　　伊拉克或是其中之一

　　盡管伊拉克擁有1450億桶已探明的原油儲量，但伊拉克財政部長阿里?阿拉維(Ali Allawi)最近警告稱，到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放的目標對伊拉克來說可能是災難性的。世界銀行將伊拉克、赤道幾內(nèi)亞、尼日利亞、圭亞那、阿爾及利亞、阿塞拜疆和哈薩克斯坦列為最脆弱的產(chǎn)油國，原因是這些國家在石油和天然氣領域的敞口較大，且相對缺乏多樣化。

　　另一方面，一些石油巨頭，如沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯，由于其更復雜的經(jīng)濟和更大的金融緩沖，相對而言并沒有那么脆弱。在接受能源轉(zhuǎn)型方面，沙特阿拉伯似乎領先于大多數(shù)歐佩克成員國。

　　沙特政府正在建設一個價值50億美元的綠氫工廠，該工廠將在2025年建成后為計劃中的Neom特大城市提供能源。這個Helios綠氫工廠將利用太陽能和風能產(chǎn)生4吉瓦的清潔能源來生產(chǎn)氫。但最重要的是，該工廠將很快生產(chǎn)出比石油更便宜的清潔氫氣。

　　彭博新能源財經(jīng)估計，到2030年，Helios的成本為每公斤1.5美元，遠低于綠氫每公斤5美元的平均成本，甚至低于由天然氣裂解制成的灰氫。沙特阿拉伯在綠氫業(yè)務上享有嚴重的競爭優(yōu)勢，這要歸功于它在太陽能、風力和大片未使用的土地方面的優(yōu)勢。

　　在沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司最近電話會議上，該公司首席執(zhí)行官告訴投資者，沙特國家石油公司已經(jīng)放棄了立即發(fā)展液化天然氣部門的計劃，轉(zhuǎn)而發(fā)展氫氣。納賽爾表示，沙特目前的計劃是生產(chǎn)足夠的天然氣供國內(nèi)使用，以停止發(fā)電廠燃燒石油，并將剩余的天然氣轉(zhuǎn)化為氫氣。藍氫是由天然氣通過蒸汽甲烷重整(SMR)或自動熱重整(ATR)制成的，產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳將被捕獲并儲存起來。由于溫室氣體被捕獲，這減輕了對地球的環(huán)境影響。

　　去年，沙特阿美生產(chǎn)了世界上第一批藍氨——從沙特阿拉伯到日本。日本——一個多山的地形和極端的地震活動使其不適合可持續(xù)可再生能源的發(fā)展的國家，正在尋找可靠的氫燃料供應商，沙特阿拉伯和澳大利亞在其候選名單上。

　　外匯儲備縮水

　　然而，石油巨頭們面臨著一個更大的生存危機，這個危機可能會更早地波及國內(nèi):儲量迅速減少。

　　去年，大型石油公司的已探明儲量減少了130億桶油當量，相當于其地下庫存水平的15%。Rystad表示，剩余的儲量將在不到15年內(nèi)耗盡，除非大型石油公司能迅速發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的商業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)。

　　勘探投資迅速萎縮

　　全球石油和天然氣公司在2020年削減了驚人的34%的資本支出，以應對需求的萎縮和投資者對該行業(yè)持續(xù)低回報的擔憂。這一趨勢并沒有放緩的跡象:根據(jù)Rystad的數(shù)據(jù)，第一季度的探明儲量為12億桶油當量，為7年來的最低水平，只獲得了少量的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

　　在加拿大油砂和美國頁巖氣儲量大幅減少后，埃克森美孚的已探明儲量在2020年比2019年減少了70億桶油當量，降幅達30%。

　　與此同時，殼牌去年已探明儲量下降20%，至90億桶油當量;由于減值支出，雪佛龍損失了20億桶石油，而BP損失了10億桶石油。過去十年中，只有道達爾和埃尼集團避免了探明儲量的減少。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Rapid Energy Transition Could Doom Oil Exporting Countries

　　It’s a tough time being in the oil and gas business. Big Oil has lately come under a plethora of attacks from all directions, ranging from uncooperative financiers and investors amidst a global shift to renewable energy to hostile governments and hardline climate activists.

　　And although the major oil-exporting economies of the world weren’t necessarily in the environmental crosshairs like Big Oil was, the shift could have a devastating effect on those oil-dependent economies.

　　In a virtual climate summit with 41 world leaders last month, President Joe Biden unveiled an ambitious ten-year Climate Plan that has proposed cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% by 2030. That represents a near-doubling of the U.S. commitment of a 26-28% cut under the Obama administration following the Paris Agreement of 2015.

　　Just last week, some of the biggest names in the business suffered a trifecta of blows after Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shareholders voted to further cut emissions; Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) lost at least two board seats to an activist hedge fund while a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) to cut its greenhouse gas emissions harder and faster than it had previously planned. Never mind the fact that Shell already had pledged to cut GHG emissions by 20% by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050. The court in The Hague determined that wasn’t good enough and demanded a 45% cut by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

　　Things are looking decidedly murky at a granular level, with environmental activists taking advantage of the clean energy momentum and major policy changes by the world’s governments to turn the screw on Big Oil.

　　But what happens when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture—Entire nations that depend on oil to power their economies. How will economies that are heavily dependent on oil exports cope with the shift to low-carbon fuels?

　　In 2019, 40 countries across the globe exported crude worth $1 billion or more, with some like Iraq depending on oil sales to finance upwards of 90% of their budgets. Fossil fuel-dependent economies represent almost one-third of the world’s population and are responsible for a fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions.

　　And now the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that pursuing net-zero emissions target is likely to be catastrophic for many oil exporters.

　　A Looming Catastrophe

　　Pursuing a net-zero emissions target by 2050 would see OPEC become even more dominant and end up accounting for more than 50% of world production as supplies become concentrated among a smaller number of countries. Unfortunately, it would also mean there’s a lot less pie to go around, with annual per capita income from these commodities predicted to fall by as much as 75% in little more than a decade.

　　According to the IEA, countries where hydrocarbon exports make up a large part of GDP are likely to be the hardest hit.

　　However, countries that are the least resilient—where the revenues from the sale of fossil fuels have not been adequately managed by means such as using the cash to diversify into other domestic industries or create sovereign wealth funds that invest abroad to secure long-term revenues—will also bear the full brunt of the energy transition.

　　One such country is Iraq.

　　Despite harboring ~145bn barrels of proven crude reserves, Iraq’s finance minister Ali Allawi recently warned that pursuing a net-zero target by 2050 could be catastrophic for the country. Allawi has been desperately trying to push sweeping state and economic reforms in a bid to avert this eventuality, but has seen his efforts thwarted by a government more concerned with more prosaic matters.

　　The World Bank has named Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Guyana, Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan as the most vulnerable oil-producing countries due to their high exposure to the oil and gas sector and relative lack of diversification.

　　On the other hand, some oil giants such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are seen as being less vulnerable thanks to their more complex economies and bigger financial buffers.

　　A good case in point: When it comes to embracing the energy transition, Saudi Arabia appears to be ahead of most of its OPEC peers.

　　The Saudi government is building a $5 billion green hydrogen plant that will power the planned megacity of Neom when it opens in 2025. Dubbed Helios Green Fuels, the hydrogen plant will use solar and wind energy to generate 4GW of clean energy that will be used to produce hydrogen.

　　But here’s the main kicker: Helios could soon produce clean hydrogen that’s cheaper than oil.

　　Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates that Helios’ costs could reach $1.50 per kilogram by 2030, way cheaper than the average cost of green hydrogen at $5 per kilogram and even cheaper than gray hydrogen made from cracking natural gas. Saudi Arabia enjoys a serious competitive advantage in the green hydrogen business thanks to its perpetual sunshine, wind, and vast tracts of unused land.

　　During the company’s latest earnings call, Saudi Aramco CEO told investors that Aramco had abandoned immediate plans to develop its LNG sector in favor of hydrogen. Nasser said that the kingdom’s immediate plan is to produce enough natural gas for domestic use to stop burning oil in its power plants and convert the remainder into hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is made from natural gas either by Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) or Auto Thermal Reforming (ATR) with the CO2 generated captured and then stored. As the greenhouse gasses are captured, this mitigates the environmental impacts on the planet.

　　Last year, Aramco made the world’s first blue ammonia shipment—from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Japan—a country whose mountainous terrain and extreme seismic activity render it unsuitable for the development of sustainable renewable energy—is looking for dependable suppliers of hydrogen fuel with Saudi Arabia and Australia on its shortlist.

　　Dwindling reserves

　　Big Oil, however, faces a bigger existential crisis that could hit home even sooner: Rapidly dwindling reserves.

　　Massive impairment charges saw Big Oil’s proven reserves drop by 13 billion boe, good for ~15% of its stock levels in the ground, last year. Rystad now says that the remaining reserves are set to run out in less than 15 years, unless Big Oil makes more commercial discoveries quickly.

　　The main culprit: Rapidly shrinking exploration investments.

　　Global oil and gas companies cut their capex by a staggering 34% in 2020 in response to shrinking demand and investors growing wary of persistently poor returns by the sector.

　　The trend shows no signs of moderating: First quarter discoveries totaled 1.2 billion boe, the lowest in 7 years with successful wildcats only yielding modest-sized finds as per Rystad.

　　ExxonMobil, whose proven reserves shrank by 7 billion boe in 2020, or 30%, from 2019 levels, was the worst hit after major reductions in Canadian oil sands and US shale gas properties.

　　Shell, meanwhile, saw its proven reserves fall by 20% to 9 billion boe last year; Chevron lost 2 billion boe of proven reserves due to impairment charges while BP lost 1 boe. only Total (NYSE:TOT) and Eni have avoided reductions in proven reserves over the past decade.

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