據電力新聞2021年5月7日倫敦報道，全球最大最有經驗的水電解裝置生產商Nel Hydrogen公司首席執行官喬恩·安德烈·洛克日前在接受媒體記者采訪時表示，由于綠氫的生產成本迅速下降，石油公司推動的藍氫生產在短期內將并不經濟。

　　Nel Hydrogen公司已經制定了一份路線圖，計劃到2025年前實現綠氫(通過電解水生產)的商業生產，成本低于每公斤1.5美元，使其與化石燃料生產的灰氫具有競爭力，并超過藍氫(通過蒸汽甲烷重整和碳捕獲和儲存生產)。

　　洛克在挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）日前舉行的一個在線能源轉型活動上說：“說到藍氫，從成本的角度來看，我真的不認為藍氫有機會。”

　　他說：“我認為這在很大程度上是大型石油公司推動的，因為他們沒有選擇，他們害怕失去權力和壟斷地位。”“但我認為，有了綠色可再生氫，成本下降的速度將比分析師們認為的快得多。”

　　洛克說：“假設電價是每兆瓦時20美元，藍氫2025年的目標是每公斤1.5美元。這已經可以和化石競爭了。如果再加上捕獲二氧化碳所需的每公斤1美元加成本，藍氫就沒有競爭力。”

　　分散的可再生能源發電

　　綠氫的生產成本將取決于可再生電力的價格，但洛克認為分散的可再生能源發電將改變游戲規則。

　　洛克說：“我認為更相關的問題不是電價，而是發電的成本。成本和價格之間有著巨大的差別。”

　　“有時這是因為市場不完善。有時是因為你需要連接到電網。所以你會在越來越多的地方找到離網解決方案。脫離電網，或者使用微型電網，使你獨立于那些控制電網、控制電力、控制能源的寡頭。”

　　5月5日，市場評估了荷蘭通過堿性電解生產氫氣的成本(包括資本支出)，為3.94歐元/公斤(4.75美元/公斤)。PEM電解產量被評估為4.99歐元/公斤，而蒸汽甲烷重整(包括碳、CCS和資本支出)的藍氫產量被評估為2.11歐元/公斤。

　　碳排放稅是受歡迎的，但洛克說，“從根本上說，我們的商業論證不要依賴任何形式的支持或補貼來幫助這一行動。”“我們必須能夠憑借自身優勢與化石燃料競爭。”

　　他表示，碳稅、資本支出和運營支出支持都將有助于啟動該行業，加速規模化生產。

　　電池增壓

　　鋰離子電池生產商弗雷公司首席執行官湯姆·詹森對此表示贊同。他在同一場活動中表示：“你不能依靠來自政府的激勵措施來建立一家企業。”

　　詹森說，“但政府的激勵措施肯定會有助于加速能源轉型，因此，如果政府希望加速這一轉型進程，他們應該實施非常重的二氧化碳稅。如果你想讓事情加速發展，那就把你的錢花在你說的事情上。”

　　詹森指出，歐洲的高碳價格正在轉化為對電池生產商的激勵。

　　5月5日，ICE歐洲期貨交易所12月交割的歐盟碳排放限額期貨合約報收于49.45歐元/噸，5月4日首次超過50歐元/噸。

　　詹森說：“如果你有一個無二氧化碳的電池，相對于目前的全球平均水平，這能夠意味著大約5%的成本效益。”

　　李峻 編譯自 電力新聞

　　原文如下：

　　Oil companies will struggle to make blue hydrogen economical: Nel CEO

　　Blue hydrogen production, promoted by oil companies, will not be economical beyond the short term as green hydrogen costs fall rapidly, electrolyzer producer Nel Hydrogen's CEO, Jon Andre Lokke, said May 6.

　　Nel Hydrogen has outlined a road map to reach commercial production of green hydrogen -- produced by electrolyzing water -- at costs of below $1.5/kg by 2025, making it competitive with fossil fuel-derived "grey" hydrogen, and outcompeting blue hydrogen, produced via steam methane reforming with carbon capture and storage.

　　"When it comes to blue, I really don't think from a cost perspective that blue has a chance, to be honest," Lokke said at an online Rystad energy transition event.

　　"I think it is pushed very much by the big oil companies because they don't have a choice, and they're afraid of losing power and the oligopoly position," he said. "But I think with green renewable hydrogen, the cost is going to go down much faster than the analysts think. Look at what happened in wind."

　　The 2025 target of $1.5/kg assumes electricity prices of $20/MWh.

　　"That's already competitive with fossil," Lokke said. "If I add then the $1/kg-plus in cost which I need to capture the CO2, I'm not going to be competitive. I'm already out."

　　Decentralized renewable generation

　　Green hydrogen production costs will depend on the price of renewable electricity, but Lokke sees decentralized renewable power generation as a game-changer.

　　"I think the more relevant question is not the price of electricity, but the cost of electricity," he said. "There is a huge difference between the cost and the price.

　　"Sometimes that's due to an imperfect market. Sometimes it's because you need to connect to the grid. So you will find off-grid solutions in more and more locations. Disconnected from the grid, or using mini-grids, making you independent of the oligopolies controlling the grids, controlling the power, controlling the energy."

　　It is assessed the cost of producing hydrogen via alkaline electrolysis in the Netherlands (including capex) at Eur3.94/kg ($4.75/kg) May 5. PEM electrolysis production was assessed at Eur4.99/kg, while blue hydrogen production by steam methane reforming (including carbon, CCS and capex) was Eur2.11/kg.

　　A carbon tax was welcome, but "fundamentally, our business case does not rely on any form of support or subsidies to help this fly," Lokke said. "We have to be able to compete with fossil fuels on our own merit."

　　A carbon tax, capex and operational expenditure support would all help kick-start the industry, accelerating production at scale, he said.

　　Battery boost

　　The CEO of lithium-ion battery producer Freyr, Tom Jensen, agreed.

　　"You cannot build a business relying on incentives from the government," he said at the same event.

　　"But they will definitely help in accelerating the energy transition," Jensen said. "So if governments want that to be accelerated, they should implement very heavy CO2 taxes. If you want something to be accelerated, put your money where your mouth is."

　　Jensen noted that high carbon prices in Europe were translating into incentives for battery cell producers.

　　EU carbon allowance futures contracts for December 2021 delivery on the ICE Futures Europe exchange closed at Eur49.45/mt May 5, having risen above Eur50/mt for the first time May 4.

　　"It can mean around a 5% cost benefit if you actually have a battery that is CO2-free, relative to what the global average is today," Jensen said.

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