據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)4月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，在交通運(yùn)輸和其他依賴石油的行業(yè)中，電氣化的應(yīng)用正在加速，并將比我們之前的預(yù)測(cè)更快地消耗石油。由于這一轉(zhuǎn)變，雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）將其石油需求峰值預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至1.016億桶/日，這一峰值將在2026年出現(xiàn)，比預(yù)期的要早，在2030年后降至1億桶/日以下之前趨于平穩(wěn)。
在最新的基本情況下，石油需求將主要被不斷增長(zhǎng)的電動(dòng)汽車(EV)市場(chǎng)削弱。
據(jù)雷斯塔能源預(yù)測(cè)，在塑料回收、石化部門中氫的使用量增加、電力、農(nóng)業(yè)和海事部門中石油的替代等領(lǐng)域，會(huì)出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性變化，有些變化是突然的，有些變化是緩慢的。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看其他行業(yè)中期仍將迎來(lái)旺盛的石油需求，如卡車、海運(yùn)和石化、航空等，我們看到，噴氣燃料與生物噴氣燃料等非石油燃料的替代相當(dāng)可觀，而生物噴氣燃料仍然是整個(gè)液體產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域的一部分。我們可以看到，非石油燃料(如生物燃料)正在大量替代航空燃料，而生物燃料仍然是整個(gè)液體產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域的一部分。
雷斯塔能源公司的石油市場(chǎng)分析師索非亞·圭迪·迪·桑特表示，石油需求將分三個(gè)階段演變。到2025年，石油需求仍然受到新冠疫情影響，電動(dòng)汽車的發(fā)展仍然緩慢，然后從2025-2035年，結(jié)構(gòu)性下降和替代影響（特別是卡車）占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，最后，到2050年，塑料的回收和海運(yùn)技術(shù)的加速將是最后一個(gè)過(guò)渡階段，就我們的平均情況而言，2050年石油需求將進(jìn)一步下降到5100萬(wàn)桶/日。
?占石油需求48%以上的道路運(yùn)輸(乘用車、公交車和貨運(yùn))將是石油轉(zhuǎn)型的最終驅(qū)動(dòng)力。最快的轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)在電動(dòng)乘用車領(lǐng)域展開(kāi)，目前占全球汽車銷量的6%，但到2025年將達(dá)到23%，然后到2050年加速達(dá)到96%。
?占石油總需求的18%的卡車，短期內(nèi)不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)電氣化，但當(dāng)在2030年代中期被采用并開(kāi)始達(dá)到臨界量時(shí)，替代影響將比燃料較少的小型車輛要高得多。電動(dòng)卡車將受益于乘用車已經(jīng)建立的技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)。公共汽車也將逐步從石油柴油轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)和生物燃料。到2025年，電動(dòng)卡車的市場(chǎng)份額將上升至6%，2030年為21%，2040年為61%。
?占石油總需求14%的石油化工產(chǎn)品，隨著全球人均塑料消費(fèi)量的增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)將至少持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)到21世紀(jì)30年代中期。正如在玻璃和金屬中觀察到的那樣，隨著塑料回收率從目前的有效回收率5%趨向于75-80%，需求達(dá)到峰值，與此同時(shí)，氫源原料從目前的不足1%上升到2030年LDPE、HDPE、PP和PVC塑料生產(chǎn)的原始石化原料的30%。
?占需求的6%的海運(yùn)，預(yù)計(jì)至少在21世紀(jì)30年代中期以石油為主，之后我們預(yù)計(jì)將轉(zhuǎn)向液化天然氣、氫氣、電池和其他碳中性船舶，尤其是在新建船舶中。隨著IMO 2020的到來(lái)，這一領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)巨大的轉(zhuǎn)變，從高硫燃料轉(zhuǎn)向超低硫燃料。
?占石油需求的比重不到7%的航空業(yè)，由于沒(méi)有可行的石油替代技術(shù)存在，預(yù)計(jì)航空業(yè)將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)到2050年。生物航空燃料的逐步引入將限制純煤油航空燃料的需求增長(zhǎng)，但除非引入可行的替代技術(shù)，否則不會(huì)影響到2050年航空業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。
?其他行業(yè)(農(nóng)業(yè)、能源自身使用、自身能源使用、工業(yè)、建筑和電力行業(yè))繼續(xù)呈下降趨勢(shì)。不斷增長(zhǎng)的農(nóng)業(yè)和能源自用需求部分抵消了電力中石油消耗的加速下降。
郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下：
AS ELECTRIFICATION IN TRANSPORT ACCELERATES OIL DEMAND MAY PEAK IN 2026
The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast. As a result of this transition, Rystad Energy is downgrading its peak oil demand forecast to 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a pinnacle that will come in 2026, earlier than thought, plateauing before falling below 100 million bpd after 2030.
In its updated base case, oil demand will be whittled away mainly by a growing electric vehicle (EV) market.
Rystad forecasts tectonic shifts – some sudden and others slowly evolving – in plastics recycling, a growing share of hydrogen in the petrochemical sector, and oil substitution in power, agriculture, and maritime sectors. Other sectors will still see thriving oil demand in the mid-term, such as trucks, maritime and petrochemicals, and aviation in the long term, where we see a sizable substitution of jet fuel with non-petroleum fuels such as bio-jet fuel, which is still part of the overall liquids products universe.
“Oil demand will evolve in three phases. Through 2025, oil demand is still affected by Covid-19 impacts and EVs are still slow to take off, then from 2025-2035, structural declines and substitution impacts -especially in trucks – take hold, and then finally, towards 2050, the recycling of plastics and accelerated technologies in maritime will be the final transition leg bringing oil demand further down towards 51 million bpd in 2050 in our Mean Case,“ says Sofia Guidi Di Sante, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.
? Road transport (passenger vehicles, buses and freight), which makes up over 48% of oil demand, will be the ultimate driver of the transition. The swiftest transition is already well underway in the electric passenger vehicle sector, which currently makes up 6% of global vehicle sales, but will account for 23% by 2025 and then accelerate towards 96% penetration by 2050.
? Trucks, which account for 18% of total demand, will not electrify in the short-term, but when the adoption occurs in the mid-2030s and begins reaching critical mass, the substitution impact will be much higher on a per-unit basis compared to smaller vehicles that use less fuel. EV trucks will benefit from the technology groundwork already being established in passenger vehicles. Buses will also see a gradual transition from petroleum diesel to electric and biofuels. The EV truck market share will rise to 6% in 2025, 21% in 2030, and 61% in 2040.
? Petrochemicals, which make up 14% of total oil demand, are expected to grow until at least the mid-2030s as plastics consumption per capita grows worldwide. The demand then peaks as plastics recycling rates converge towards 75-80%, as observed in glass and metals, from the current effective rate of 5%, at the same time as hydrogen-sourced feedstock picks up from less than 1% today to 30% of the virgin petrochemical feedstock for LDPE, HDPE, PP and PVC plastics production in 2030.
? Maritime, which makes up 6% of demand, is expected to be dominated by oil for at least through the mid-2030s, after which we expect to see switching to LNG, hydrogen, electric batteries, and other carbon-neutral vessels, especially in newbuilds. This sector already underwent a big transition with IMO 2020, which saw the switching from high-sulfur fuel to ultra-low sulfur fuel.
? Aviation, which makes up less than 7% of oil demand, is expected to continue to grow until 2050 as no viable oil substitution technology exists. The gradual introduction of bio-jet fuel will limit pure kerosene jet fuel demand growth but will not affect the strong upward trajectory in aviation through 2050, unless a viable alternative technology is introduced.
? Other sectors (agriculture, energy own use, own energy use, industry, buildings, and power generation) continue a downward sloping trajectory. Growing agriculture and energy own use demand partially offset the accelerated decline of oil consumption in power.
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