據4月19日Rigzone消息：Rystad Energy透露，其最新預測顯示，2021年石油需求將同比增長6%。
該公司預計今年的平均需求將從去年的8960萬桶/天升至9540萬桶/天。4月的需求預計將達到9300萬桶/天，5月預計為9400萬桶/天，6月預計為9580萬桶/天。
第三季度的石油總需求預計平均為9680萬桶/天，第四季度將升至9830萬桶/天。 展望2022年，預計明年的石油總需求將繼續上升，達到約9940萬桶/天。
Rystad認為，今年全球公路燃料總需求將增長9%，達到4510萬桶/天。4月份，全球道路燃料需求預計平均為4420萬桶/天，隨后在5月和6月分別升至4490萬桶/天和4590萬桶/天。預計第三季度道路燃料需求平均為4620萬桶/天，第四季度為4650萬桶/天。Rystad預測，到2022年，公路燃料需求將達到4750萬桶/天。
Rystad預計，受疫情影響最嚴重的航空燃油需求今年將增長21%，平均為390萬桶/天。然而，該公司指出，這仍然與疫情前水平相距甚遠。大部分復蘇預計將在2022年進行，屆時航空燃料需求平均為540萬桶/天。
馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Demand Predicted to Jump 6 Percent in 2021
Rystad Energy has revealed that its latest forecast projects a six percent year on year increase in oil demand in 2021.
The company sees demand rising to an average of 95.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, from 89.6MMbpd in 2020. April 2021 demand is expected to hit 93 MMbpd, with 94 MMbpd projected in May and 95.8 MMbpd forecasted for June.
Total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 MMbpd before rising to 98.3 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead to 2022, Rystad said its estimates show that total oil demand next year will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 MMbpd.
Rystad believes that total global demand for road fuels will rise by nine percent this year to 45.1 MMbpd. In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 MMbpd globally, before rising to 44.9 MMbpd in May and 45.9 MMbpd in June. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 MMbpd in the third quarter and 46.5 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. In 2022, Rystad forecasts that road fuel demand will hit 47.5 MMbpd.
Rystad expects jet fuel demand, which it says has been hit the hardest by the pandemic, to rise 21 percent this year and average 3.9 MMbpd. The company noted however that this is still “a far cry from pre-pandemic levels”. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when Rystad anticipates jet fuel demand to average 5.4 MMbpd.
The latest oil demand projections released by Rystad are part of the company’s monthly Covid-19 report, which calculates the effect of the pandemic and offers updated estimates for global energy markets. By monitoring recent developments, travel restrictions, quarantine obligations, and new government policies, Rystad says it is able to make frequent fact-based updates to its estimates.
As of April 18, 2.35pm CEST, there have been 140.3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with three million deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). There have been 792.7 million vaccination doses administered worldwide, as of April 19, the latest WHO figures show.
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