據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，在經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勢反彈的背景下，歐佩克將2021年石油需求上調(diào)每天19萬桶，高于上月預(yù)期。

　　歐佩克4月份月度石油市場報(bào)告顯示，預(yù)計(jì)2021年全球石油需求全年平均為9646萬桶/天。這一數(shù)字高于上月報(bào)告中的9627萬桶/天，也高于最新估計(jì)的9051萬桶/日的2020年石油需求。

　　在3月的報(bào)告中，歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)2020年全球石油需求為每天9000萬桶。

　　此前，該組織實(shí)際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯在歐佩克會(huì)議上表示，其使用的石油需求數(shù)據(jù)偏低，全球?qū)嶋H石油需求將更高。

　　作為歐佩克中唯一真正搖擺不定的產(chǎn)油國，沙特阿拉伯在歐佩克內(nèi)部仍有巨大的影響力。根據(jù)這些數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克最終決定從2021年5月開始逐步提高石油產(chǎn)量。

　　無論何種原因，歐佩克對(duì)石油需求的樂觀預(yù)期必然會(huì)對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生積極影響。

　　歐佩克在指出：“支持經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈的是刺激計(jì)劃、放松出行限制措施和加速疫苗推廣，特別是在經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)，經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈比上月預(yù)期的更為強(qiáng)勁。”

　　在疫苗方面，據(jù)估計(jì)有20%的美國人已經(jīng)完成了接種，歐佩克認(rèn)為這是對(duì)石油需求持樂觀態(tài)度的原因之一。在以色列，高達(dá)57%的人口已經(jīng)完成了接種。但總體而言，世界上只有不到10%的人接受了單次注射。一些國家預(yù)計(jì)到2021年底無法達(dá)到20%的水平。

　　不過，2021年上半年的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況仍不容樂觀。

　　盡管歐佩克調(diào)整了全年的石油需求預(yù)期，并相應(yīng)地調(diào)整了產(chǎn)量，但它下調(diào)了今年上半年的石油需求預(yù)期。歐佩克降低其上半年預(yù)期的原因似乎與它提高全年石油需求預(yù)期的原因相似:歐洲地區(qū)的新冠肺炎疫情防控措施，以及非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)疲軟的2021年第一季度需求數(shù)據(jù)。

　　歐佩克在其報(bào)告中發(fā)出了警告:“2021年，受疫情的影響，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍將居高不下。包括新能源政策和大規(guī)模貨幣和財(cái)政刺激措施的有效性，這些都將在短期內(nèi)影響石油需求。”

　　在歐佩克石油供應(yīng)方面。盡管2021年上半年的數(shù)據(jù)顯示石油需求低于此前預(yù)期，但歐佩克2021年第一季度的實(shí)際產(chǎn)量有所增加。歐佩克今年第一季度的產(chǎn)量為2513.8萬桶/天，而上一季度為2494.1萬桶/天。

　　季度增產(chǎn)超過10萬桶/天的國家都是目前歐佩克減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的豁免國。

　　阿聯(lián)酋的產(chǎn)量也比上一季度增加了9.6萬桶/天。伊拉克是第五大增產(chǎn)國，日增量為6.4萬桶，而按照減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的規(guī)定，伊拉克的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該低于配額，以彌補(bǔ)此前的過剩供應(yīng)。

　　值得慶幸的是，與2020年第四季度相比，搖擺產(chǎn)油國沙特阿拉伯2021年第一季度的平均日產(chǎn)量減少了52.2萬桶。

　　3月份，而沙特阿拉伯的原油產(chǎn)量再次大幅下降，達(dá)到809萬桶/天。總體而言，歐佩克3月份的產(chǎn)量比2月份高出20.1萬桶/天，達(dá)到2504.2萬桶/天。相比之下，2020年的平均日產(chǎn)量為2564.5萬桶。

　　在上一次歐佩克+會(huì)議同意放松減產(chǎn)配額后，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在未來幾個(gè)月增加。在第一批增產(chǎn)中，預(yù)計(jì)將增加50萬桶/天，一半來自歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國，一半來自沙特阿拉伯的自愿減產(chǎn)。然而,沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)暗示產(chǎn)油國們將用靈活的生產(chǎn)配額來滿足需求。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC’s Bullish Demand Data Sparks Hope Of New Oil Rally

　　OPEC has revised its 2021 oil demand upward to stand 190,000 bpd higher than last month's estimates, on the back of an economic rebound that surpasses last month's outlook.

　　Global 2021 oil demand is now expected to average 96.46 million bpd for the full year, according to OPEC's latest projects included in its April Monthly Oil Market Report. That figure is up from 96.27 million bpd in last month's report, and up from the newly estimated 2020 oil demand figure of 90.51 million bpd.

　　In last month's report, OPEC had estimated 2020 global oil demand at 90.39 million bpd.

　　Behind the Curtain

　　This upward revision comes after the group's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, told the group at the last OPEC meeting that the oil demand figures they were using were too low and that actual global oil demand would be higher.

　　As the only true swing producer in the group, Saudi Arabia still has enormous sway within OPEC.

　　The group ultimately decided to gradually lift oil production starting in May 2021 based on these figures, which it did not disclose at the time.

　　Whatever spark, an optimistic oil demand projection by OPEC is bound to have a positive effect on prices.

　　For its April MOMR, OPEC cited a "stronger economic rebound than assumed last month." Supporting this economic rebound, OPEC said, were stimulus programs, easing of Covid-19 lockdown measures, and accelerated vaccine rollout, particularly in the OECD region.

　　On the vaccine front, which OPEC cites as cause for oil demand optimism, an estimated 20% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated. In Israel, a whopping 57% of the population has been fully vaccinated. But overall, less than 10% of the world has received a single dose. Some countries are not expected to reach the 20% threshold by the end of 2021.

　　The Sad Truth about H12021

　　While OPEC has adjusted up its oil demand projections for the whole year—and adjusted its production to match—it revised downward its oil demand projections for the first half of this year.

　　Its reasons for lowering its H12021 projections seem to mimic the reasons it raised its full-year oil demand projections: Covid-19 measures in OECD Europe, and sluggish—actual—Q1 2021 demand data in the non-OECD region.

　　And OPEC raised another caution flag in its report: "Risk will remain high during 2021, subject to COVID-19 developments, and the pace of reaching heard immunity targets." OPEC also pointed out additional risks that included new energy policies and the "effectiveness of the large scale monetary and fiscal stimulus measures"—all of which will impact oil demand in the short-term.

　　OPEC production

　　While the data for the first part of 2021 showed worse oil demand than previously expected, OPEC's actual Q1 production for 2021 increased. OPEC's first-quarter production this year was 25.138 million bpd, compared to the previous quarter's 24.941 based on OPEC's secondary source figures.

　　The countries showing increases in production of more than 100,000 bpd quarter on quarter are all the countries that are currently exempt from OPEC's production cut agreement.

　　The UAE also increased production by 96,000 bpd quarter over quarter. Iraq represented the fifth-largest increase at 64,000 bpd, while it was supposed to be producing under its quota to make up for previous overages as spelled out in the production cut agreement.

　　Thankfully for OPEC, swing producer Saudi Arabia produced an average of 522,000 barrels per day less in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020.

　　For the month of March, Saudi Arabia was, again, saw the largest decrease, bringing its March production to 8.090 million bpd. Overall, OPEC’s March production was 201,000 bpd higher than February, at 25.042 million bpd.

　　This compares to an average 25.645 million bpd across all of 2020.

　　OPEC’s production is expected to increase in the coming months after the last OPEC+ meeting agreed to ease up on the production cut quotas. In the first tranche of increases, an additional 500,000 bpd is expected—half from OPEC+ and half from Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts. Saudi Arabia, however, has signaled to the market that the group will be flexible with its production quotas to meet demand, wherever it may be.

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