???? 據能源之聲3月29日消息，頂級金融顧問機構伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師預計，液化天然氣(LNG)市場將趨緊，因為有限的供應增長將滿足強勁的需求，尤其是來自亞洲的需求，這可能推高價格。

????伯恩斯坦表示：“盡管經歷了2020年的動蕩，但去年液化天然氣需求增長是積極的，這凸顯了該行業的韌性。鑒于供應增長有限，再加上強勁的經濟復蘇，我們預計未來3年市場將趨緊，這將進一步推動亞洲的液化天然氣需求。”

????“需求增長主要來自亞洲和中東，而其他地區的進口量則持平或下降。長期來看，由于天然氣驅動的政策支持能源結構中更高的天然氣滲透率，我們預計非經合組織亞洲液化天然氣市場(印度、馬來西亞、巴基斯坦和泰國)的消費量將繼續增長。”

????盡管受全球疫情影響，但2020年全球LNG需求同比增長1%至3.59億噸。在此期間，亞洲液化天然氣進口增長了3.5%，而歐洲進口下降了4%。

????伯恩斯坦預計，2021年全球需求將增長6%，因為亞洲市場繼續推動煤炭向天然氣轉換的需求，因為它們的能源結構正在脫碳。受經濟復蘇、煤轉氣政策和歐洲市場天然氣供應下降的推動，2021年LNG需求預計將增長約2000萬噸，這將促進LNG進口。

????2020/21年LNG產能增加將達到3000萬噸/年，可能足以滿足今年的需求增長，但伯恩斯坦預計，由于缺乏新項目，未來市場將趨緊。盡管卡塔爾已經宣布，將在2021年最終批準世界上最大的LNG擴張項目，但該項目要到本世紀20年代中后期才會投產。到本世紀20年代中后期，卡塔爾的LNG產能將從7700萬噸/年擴大到1.26億噸/年。

????伯恩斯坦表示：“雖然這是一個巨大的增長，但未來三年的供應將是有限的。在未來三年，每年的供應增長將不超過1000萬噸/年，在需求歷史上以6-7%的復合年增長率增長的市場中，這大約是3%的增長。因此，我們預計未來市場將趨緊。”

????“這將會導致未來幾年LNG現貨價格上漲，直到2020年代中期出現下一個液化天然氣過剩時期。我們在LNG領域的首選是錢尼爾、伍德賽德、Oil Search、桑托斯、Inpex和殼牌。”

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????裘寅 編譯自 能源之聲

????原文如下：

????Strong Asian LNG demand set to tighten mid-term market

????Analysts at Bernstein see tighter liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets ahead as limited supply growth meets strong demand, particularly from Asia, which could push prices higher.

????“Despite the turmoil of 2020, LNG demand growth was positive last year which highlights the resilience of the industry. We see a tighter market ahead over the next three years given limited supply growth, coupled with a strong economic recovery, which will further drive LNG demand in Asia,” the investment research house said in its latest note.

????“Demand growth came primarily from Asia and Middle East, while other regions experienced flat or declining imports. Longer term, we expect consumption will continue to grow for non-OECD Asian LNG markets of China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand due to gas-driven policies that support higher gas penetration within the energy mix,” said Bernstein.

????Global LNG demand expanded by 1% year-on-year to 359 millon tonnes in 2020, despite the COVID pandemic. Asian LNG imports increased by 3.5% over the period, while European imports fell 4%.

????Bernstein expects 6% global demand expansion in 2021, as Asian markets continue to drive demand on coal to gas switching, as they decarbonise their energy mix. LNG demand in 2021 is estimated to expand by around 20 millon tonnes per year (mtpy) driven by economic recovery, coal to gas switching policies and decline in gas supply in European markets which will boost LNG imports.

????With around 30 mtpy of LNG capacity coming online in 2020/21 there may just be enough to meet demand growth this year, however Bernstein is predicting a tighter market ahead given a lack of new projects. Although Qatar has announced final investment approval on the world’s largest LNG expansion in 2021, this will not come onstream until the mid to late 2020s. Qatar is expanding its LNG capacity from 77 mtpy to 126 mtpy by mid-late 2020s.

????“While this is a large increase, supply over the next three years will be limited. Annual supply growth will be no more than 10 mtpy over the next three years, which is circa 3% growth in a market where demand has historically grown at 6-7% CAGR. As such we expect a tighter market ahead,” said Bernstein.

????“This should lead to higher LNG spot pricing in the next few years before the next glut of LNG emerges in the mid-2020s. Our top picks in LNG are Cheniere, Woodside, Oil Search, Santos, Inpex and Shell,” added the research firm.

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