???? 據(jù)2月4日Trade Arabia消息：在疫苗樂觀、美國(guó)刺激計(jì)劃、美元疲軟前景和歐佩克嚴(yán)格紀(jì)律的共同作用下，布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油可能在年底分別突破70美元/桶和65美元/桶。
????根據(jù)日本領(lǐng)先的全球金融服務(wù)集團(tuán)三菱UFJ金融集團(tuán)(MUFG)的最新《石油市場(chǎng)周刊》，自2020年第二季度的峰值庫存以來，石油的穩(wěn)定再平衡在整個(gè)冬季一直沒有減弱，并且自2021年初以來，需求指標(biāo)已經(jīng)回升，這表明年底的疲軟在很大程度上是季節(jié)性的，而不是完全由更嚴(yán)格的流動(dòng)性限制所驅(qū)動(dòng)。
????加上亞洲天氣比預(yù)期寒冷而出人意料地提振了市場(chǎng)，這是一個(gè)強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)，表明市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)處于供不應(yīng)求狀態(tài)。
????MUFG在報(bào)告中說：“隨著疫苗在發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的推廣步伐加快，這可能是最后一次沒有抗疫苗變體的大范圍封鎖，一旦度過第一季度冬季的減速期，我們就看到了繼續(xù)實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡的明確道路?！?/p>
????這通過現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)(現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)是一種看漲結(jié)構(gòu)，較近期合約的交易價(jià)格高于較晚合約，從而表明供應(yīng)緊張)強(qiáng)化了正套利，使投資者能夠持有石油(以及更廣泛的大宗商品)，以對(duì)沖金融市場(chǎng)的不確定性，并因此獲得回報(bào)。這與2020年大部分時(shí)間的利差形成鮮明對(duì)比，當(dāng)時(shí)利差急劇下降，使現(xiàn)金零利率成為對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)不確定性的更安全對(duì)沖。
????從油價(jià)角度來看，基本面收緊的軌跡更加清晰，導(dǎo)致庫存迅速回落至正常水平，這給布倫特原油和WTI先前的預(yù)測(cè)帶來了明顯的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
????馮娟 摘譯自 Trade Arabia
????原文如下：
????Oil likely to breach $70 by year-end: MUFG
????Spurred by a confluence of vaccine optimism, US stimulus, prospects of a weaker US dollar and stern Opec+ discipline, Brent and WTI are likely to breach $70 per barrel (/b) and $65/b, respectively by year-end, a report said.
????Oil’s steady rebalancing since peak inventories in Q2 2020 has continued unabated throughout winter, and since the start of 2021, demand indicators have picked up, signalling year-end softness was largely seasonal, rather than entirely driven by tighter mobility restrictions, according to the latest Oil Market Weekly from the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a leading global financial services group in Japan.
????This, in conjunction with the unexpected boost from colder than expected weather in Asia, is a strong signal that the market will remain in a deficit (demand above supply).
????“With vaccine rollouts now gathering pace across developed markets during what is likely the last widespread lockdown without a vaccine-resistant variant, we see a clear path to continued rebalancing once we move past the Q1 winter speed bump,” MUFG said in the report.
????This strengthens the positive carry via backwardation – a bullish structure where nearer-dated contracts trade at a premium to later-dated one and thus signalling supply tightness – which allows investors to own oil (and broader commodities) as a hedge against financial market uncertainty and be rewarded for doing so. This stands in stark contrast to most of 2020 when the carry was sharply negative, making zero interest on cash a much safer hedge to financial market uncertainty.
????From an oil price perspective, the clearer trajectory in a tightening in fundamentals leading to a swifter draw of inventories back to normalised levels brings clear upside risks to previous Brent and WTI forecasts.
????The sheer velocity of the leg up in oil prices since the turn of the year prompts further price hikes, as markets continue to carve out new contours of normality towards a post-virus equilibrium, the report said.
