???? 據福布斯2月1日報道，對于石油交易商來說，圍繞近期游戲驛站公司（GME）股價飆升的爭論耳熟能詳，對查爾斯 狄更斯（Charles Dickens）的粉絲而言也是如此，他在《尼古拉斯 尼克比》（Nicholas Nickleby）一書中描述了類似的關于一家改進熱松餅、面包烘焙技術和提升送貨準時性的公司的事件。投機者先低價大量購買該公司股票，隨后一批資深研究員大力推薦該公司，他們宣稱該公司會通過為工人階級提供熱騰騰、營養豐富的早餐來提升市場地位，等股價上漲后，投機者便拋售股票以獲利。這是一起典型的事件，其中的操作手法就是現在被人熟知的“pump and dump”的操作法。

????當然，游戲驛站（GME） 是一家真正的公司，它有真正的業務，而不是虛構的松餅，但這并不是說最近的股價暴漲有基本面支撐。就像我的經紀人哈姆雷特說的“Ay，這里面有問題”。 基本面并非是純粹的基本面，因為它總是包含了一定的猜測和預期：今天的市盈率很重要，但非影響股票估值的唯一因素。其他比如對疫情持續時間的預期、未來幾個月的經濟增長和消費者收入、消費者重返店內購物的程度以及許多其他因素，這些因素都不確定。（也有人認為，這只股票暴漲是因為有人利用了人們對對沖基金的憤怒）。如果任何一只股票的價值能被明確界定，那么將有很多市場分析師失業。

????有些經濟學家堅持認為，市場總是理性的，任何東西（股票、大宗商品、房地產等）的價格都反映了買家愿意支付的價格。基于這樣的理論，如果這周石油價格是50美元，下周是40美元，那么這兩個價格都不是非理性的，而是反映了不同時期人們對石油感知價值的變化。

????而事實上人們總覺得石油價格經常被操縱，而且在整個歷史中都是如此：從洛克菲勒到德州鐵路委員會，再到石油七姐妹，以及最近的OPEC+。投機者同樣經常被指責為油價波動的罪魁禍首，甚至在紐約商品交易所開始交易石油期貨之前，投機者就允許個人投資者（通常被稱為“醫生和律師”）投機油價。

????最近，2000年代油價飆升的部分原因是指數基金的創立，指數基金使養老基金和其他基金能夠投資石油，因為它們的風險遠低于期貨合約。但與此同時，在需求激增的同時，石油供應也出現了嚴重中斷，這才是油價上漲的主要原因。2008年油價飆升時，一些人（比如我看空油價）認為這是一個泡沫，但許多人認為油價反映了“石油峰值”，這是一種被廣泛認可的學說，許多人堅信，石油產量已在2005年永久見頂。

????石油危機期間，當重返市場后價格不斷飆升時，各大石油公司都認為是投機者推高了油價。他們揶揄道：成為一名石油交易員，你只需有一張桌子、一把椅子、一部電話和一筆信貸（信貸是真的需要）。由于人人都知道股價將上漲，人們會以任何價格買進，以期迅速并以更高的價格賣出獲利。這也被稱為“動量交易”，一個經常用來解釋價格似乎不合理的基本面。

????對市場不合理或不公平的抱怨并不新鮮，長期以來，大宗商品生產商一直指責“投機者”影響價格。然而，在大多數情況下，比如石油期貨，市場非常廣闊，任何一個投資者，無論是個人還是公司，都很難以操縱。不過，也有一個非常大的例外，有一些政治人物的決定能影響近短期石油期貨價格，包括俄羅斯總統普京、美國總統拜登和沙特能源部長本?薩勒曼，本?薩勒曼最近說“我希望交易大廳里的人盡可能緊張。我要確保在這個市場上賭博的人都會痛苦萬分。”

????但即使今天，沙特政府也不能保證當前的油價就不會變化，例如，如果俄羅斯的產量遠遠超過配額，或者美國的頁巖產量再次開始繁榮，沙特可能會決定讓油價下滑。本?薩勒曼（Bin Salman）部長以其專業知識而聞名，而他可能是第一個承認再多的專業知識也無法精準預測油價的人。

????朱利斌 摘譯自福布斯

????原文如下：

????Oil, Bubbles, And Gamestop

????For oil traders, the brouhaha surrounding the Gamestop stock price spike is familiar, but also to fans of Charles Dickens, who, in Nicholas Nickleby, described a similar sensation involving the United Metropolitan Improved Hot Muffin and Crumpet Hot Baking and Punctual Delivery Company. The firm was promoted by numerous highly-regarded fellows as promising to elevate the situation of the working class by providing them with hot, nutritious breakfasts. This was a classic case of what is now known as ‘pump and dump,’ wherein speculators talk up a stock’s price and then sell out.

????Of course, Gamestop GME +67.9% is a real company with a real business as opposed to hypothetical crumpets but that is not to say that the recent stock price is warranted by what are known as fundamentals. Ay, there’s the rub, as my broker Hamlet would say. Fundamentals are not always fundamental, as they arguably include a dose of perception and expectations: today’s P/E ratio matters, but is not the only factor entering into the valuation of an equity.

????This can include expectations about the length of the pandemic, economic growth and consumer income in coming months, the extent to which consumers return to in-store shopping and many other factors, none of which is certain. (The possibility that the stock is being manipulated out of anger at hedge funds has been suggested as well.) If the value of any given equity was clearcut there would be a lot of market analysts who would be unemployed.

????There are those economists who insist that markets are always rational and that the price of anything (equities, commodities, real estate, etc.) reflects what buyers are willing to pay. Thus, if the price of oil one week is $50 and the next week $40, neither price is irrational but reflects changes in the perceived value at different times.

????And the price oil has often been described as manipulated, and it certainly has been throughout history: by Rockefeller, the Texas Railroad Commission, the Seven Sisters and, more recently OPEC+. But speculators have frequently been blamed for oil price gyrations, even before the NYMEX began trading oil futures, allowing individual investors (often referred to as ‘doctors and lawyers’) to gamble, I mean, speculate on oil prices.

????During the Oil Crisis, when prices kept soaring after oil returned to the market, the major oil companies complained that speculators were driving the price up. All you needed to be an oil trader, they said, was a table, chair, phone and line of credit. (That last admittedly being a non-trivial requirement.) Since everyone knew prices could only go up, they would buy at any price anticipating a quick sale—and profit—at a higher price. This is also known as momentum trading, a term often used to explain prices that don’t seem justified by fundamentals.

????More recently, the oil price surge in the 2000s was blamed in part on the creation of index funds, which enabled pension funds and others to invest in oil because they were much less risky than futures contracts. But at the same time, there were significant disruptions of oil supply while demand was surging, which certainly could explain much of the price increase. When prices surged in 2008, a few (like me Investing for the oil price collapse - MarketWatch) argued that was a bubble, but many thought the price reflected ‘peak oil,’ a widely believed bit of pathological science many of whose advocates insisted that conventional oil production had permanently peaked in 2005.

????Complaints about irrational or unfair markets are hardly new, and ‘speculators’ have long been blamed by commodity producers for influencing prices. However, in most cases such as with petroleum futures, the market is so broad that it is difficult for any one investor, individual or corporate, to manipulate.

????Except, and it’s a very big except, there are a number of political figures whose decision will affect the near-term price, including Russian President Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden, and Saudi Energy Minister bin Salman, who recently said “I want the guys in the trading floors to be as jumpy as possible. I’m going to make sure whoever gambles on this market will be ouching like hell.”

????But even if today, the Saudi government wants to support the price of oil where it is currently, there is no guarantee that this will not change, for example, if Russian production goes well above quota or U.S. shale production begins to boom again, the Saudis might decide to let prices slide. Minister bin Salman is known for his expertise, but he would probably be first to admit that no amount of expertise can guarantee a forecast of future oil prices.