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油價攀升 歐佩克面臨提產壓力

   2021-02-20 互聯網訊

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核心提示:???? 據路透社2月19日報道,隨著油價飆升,許多交易員預計今年晚些時候石油短缺將日益嚴重,但沙特阿拉

???? 據路透社2月19日報道,隨著油價飆升,許多交易員預計今年晚些時候石油短缺將日益嚴重,但沙特阿拉伯石油部長呼吁采取謹慎的方式增產。

????他表示:“我們現在的狀況比一年前好多了,但是我必須再次警告大家,不要自滿。不確定性非常高,我們必須非常謹慎。”

????相比之下,期貨市場顯示供應迅速吃緊,自11月初宣布疫苗試驗成功以來,近月布倫特原油價格在3個多月里上漲了逾25美元/桶,漲幅達65%。布倫特原油六個月期價差已飆升至每桶逾3.70美元,這表明交易商預期石油庫存將迅速減少。

????沙特石油部長和交易員之間就產量和消費量之間的預測平衡存在分歧,這是很正常的。

????沙特阿拉伯和其他歐佩克的產油國,以及以俄羅斯為首的歐佩克+集團,往往對油價上漲初期的消費情況過于悲觀。部分原因在于,當人們對最近的經濟衰退危機記憶猶新時,他們擔心油價和收入會回到較低水的平。正如沙特部長此前所說的那樣,2020年的危機告訴我們要對市場保持謹慎態度。

????值得注意的是,消費預測不足和產量預測過高將導致價格上漲和暴利。沙特阿拉伯前任石油部長在2018年2月曾表示:“如果我們無法避免在平衡供需市場上發生判斷性的錯誤,那就順其自然吧。”

????價格上漲在短期內有利于政府財政,從長期來看,則將為生產過剩和另一場經濟衰退創造條件。其結果是,歐佩克對增產持謹慎態度——即便是在價格上漲、庫存減少、市場出現明顯現貨溢價的情況下。

????歐佩克增產緩慢通常會導致庫存低于平均水平,而價格則會過高,直到非歐佩克產油國的增產使價格見頂,然后開始下跌。

????由于市場是一個復雜的自適應系統,具有一些混亂的特征,因此無法預測波峰和波谷的準確時間和幅度。但價格、產量、消費、庫存和價差的漲跌模式,以及歐佩克對此的反應,遵循著一個熟悉的規律。這個循環可以分為一系列的階段。確切的數字是任意的,相位可以重疊而不是完全不同。近期庫存下降、現貨價格上升、現貨溢價急劇上升,都表明市場正走向峰值。

????歐佩克繼續限制產量的決心將減弱,它將面臨通過增產來抑制價格上漲的壓力。在2020年末和2021年初,歐佩克+的幾個成員國要求提高產量,許多成員國的減產合規程度似乎正在下降。

????隨著油價飆升,歐佩克已經面臨越來越多的壓力,要求其開始增加產量,否則就會面臨美國頁巖油公司鉆探和生產復蘇的挑戰。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

????原文如下:

????Column: OPEC+ under pressure to boost output as oil climbs towards peak

????Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has called for a cautious approach to raising production, even as prices surge and many traders anticipate an increasingly severe shortage of petroleum later this year.

????“We are in a much better place than we were a year ago, but I must warn, once again, against complacency. The uncertainty is very high, and we have to be extremely cautious,” the minister said in a speech on Wednesday.

????In contrast, futures markets point to a rapid tightening of supply, with front-month Brent up more than $25 per barrel or 65% in just over three months since successful vaccine trials were announced in early November.

????Brent’s six-month calendar spread has surged into a backwardation of more than $3.70 per barrel, putting it in the 94th percentile for all trading days since 1990, and indicating traders expect a rapid depletion in oil stocks.

????Disagreements between the Saudi oil minister and traders about the forecast balance between production and consumption historically have been common at this point in the price cycle.

????Saudi Arabia and other producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as the broader group of allies led by Russia (OPEC+), tend to be over-pessimistic about consumption early in the upswing.

????Part of the reason is fear of a return to low prices and revenues when memories of the recent slump are still fresh. “The scars from the events of last year should teach us caution,” as the Saudi minister said on Feb. 17.

????But producers also have a financial incentive to err on the side of caution. Under-forecasting consumption and over-forecasting production leads to a rise in prices and revenue windfall.

????“If we have to err on over-balancing the market a little bit, so be it. Rather than quitting too early and finding out we were dealing with less reliable information ... stay the course,” Saudi Arabia’s previous oil minister said almost exactly three years ago in February 2018, when prices and spreads were at the same level they are now.

????Rising prices are beneficial for government finances in the short term, even if they create the conditions for over-production and another slump in the long term.

????The result is that it is quite normal for OPEC to be wary of raising output at this stage in the cycle – even as prices rise, inventories shrink and the market moves into a pronounced backwardation.

????OPEC’s slowness in raising production typically causes inventories to fall below average, and prices to overshoot on the upside, until a rise in output from non-OPEC producers causes prices to peak and then start to fall.

????Every price cycle is slightly different. Some slumps are triggered by recessions, others by volume wars. And OPEC+ ministers come and go. But the basic decision-making framework and incentives stay largely the same.

????The precise timing and magnitude of peaks and troughs cannot be forecast because the market is a complex adaptive system that has some chaotic features.

????But the broad pattern of rising and falling prices, production, consumption, inventories and spreads, as well as OPEC’s response to them, follows a familiar sequence.

????The cycle can be split into a series of phases. The exact number is somewhat arbitrary and the phases can overlap and not be fully distinct.

????The recent fall in inventories, rise in spot prices, and shift towards a steep backwardation, indicate the market is moving towards a peak.

????In previous cycles, at this point OPEC’s resolution to continue restricting output would weaken and it would come under pressure to curb price increases by boosting production .

????The current upswing appears to be following the same pattern. In late 2020 and early 2021, several members of OPEC+ pushed for output increases and compliance appears to be fading for many members.

????With prices surging, the organisation already faces increasing calls to start boosting output or risk a resurgence of drilling and production from U.S. shale firms.

 
 
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