???? 據今日油價2月21日報道，在被交易員們忽視了數月之后，石油再次成為一種熱門大宗商品，布倫特原油價格飆升至每桶65美元以上，西德克薩斯中質油價格一年來首次突破每桶60美元。
??? 油價上漲給歐佩克+繼續減產的決心蒙上了一層陰影，在美國因北極寒潮席卷全國而損失約40%的石油產量之前，石油就一直在穩步復蘇。德州的冰凍災害無疑助推了油價，但隨著交易員們獲利回吐，漲勢正在減緩，當前，布倫特原油價格跌至每桶63美元以下，西德克薩斯中質原油價格跌至每桶60美元以下。然而，巨大的上行潛力仍然存在，這可能加劇歐佩克+成員國之間的內部緊張關系。
????首先，美國對石油的需求正在復蘇。彭博社報道，復蘇始于去年12月開始的疫苗接種運動，自那以后，煉油廠一直在增加燃料產量。過去幾周，汽油庫存有所增加，產量也有所增加。
????但當前的情況是，在這個全球最大石油消費國的需求復蘇之際，其產量卻停滯不前。根據EIA的數據，美國2022年的產量也將維持在1200萬桶/天以下。EIA在其最新的短期能源展望中表示，這種不平衡將使美國在今明兩年成為凈出口國。但對歐佩克+來說，更重要的是，這將進一步推高油價，誘使原本就不怎么遵守減產協議的成員國變得更加不受約束。
????這個龐大的石油卡特爾內部已經出現了分歧。上一次歐佩克+做出產量決定時，就不得不做出妥協，考慮到俄羅斯等國的利益，這些國家堅持要削減一些最大幅度的產量。現在，沙特阿拉伯已經表示，將暫停其自愿單方面的每日額外100萬桶的減產，沙特也將不惜一切代價提高油價。
????這些信號表明歐佩克事實上的領導人和最大產油國正對油價變得更加樂觀。然而，根據華爾街日報的報道，如果價格形勢發生變化，減產決定可能還會被逆轉。具有諷刺意味的是，一旦德州的嚴寒熱潮消退，沙特阿拉伯每日新增100萬桶石油供應的消息很可能對油價產生負面影響。不過，盡管沙特阿拉伯繼續準備采取一切必要措施，俄羅斯卻認為石油市場已經重新平衡。
????諾瓦克表示：“過去幾個月，市場波動不大，這意味著市場是平衡的，我們今天看到的價格與市場形勢一致。雖然去年春季的石油需求比往年同期的正常水平低20- 25%，但到2020年底，下降幅度已縮小至8% - 9%。
????說到伊拉克，盡管該國試圖進一步削減原油產量，以彌補去年的產量過剩，但該國報告稱，2月份頭兩周的石油出口有所增加。據彭博社報道，整個月，伊拉克可能會超過自己設定的360萬桶/天的上限，甚至超過歐佩克+385萬桶/天的上限。還有的成員國已經在提高產量，并計劃重返國際石油舞臺。
????歐佩克+內部減產和產量增長之間的不和諧聲音只會隨著最新的石油樂觀消息而加深，且沙特石油部長已發出警告，稱不要自滿。
????薩勒曼王子表示:“我必須再次警告大家不要自滿，市場形勢不確定性非常高，我們必須非常謹慎，2020年危機留下的傷疤應該告訴我們要謹慎。”
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下：
????Can OPEC+ Maintain Order As Oil Prices Rise?
????After months of neglect from traders, oil became a hot commodity again this month as Brent surged over $65 a barrel and WTI topped $60 for the first time in a year. The rally cast a shadow over OPEC+’s resolve to keep cutting as much production as they are cutting now. Oil had been recovering steadily even before the United States lost some 40 percent of its oil production because of the Arctic cold wave that swept across the country. The Texas deep freeze certainly helped it, but its effect is already dwindling as traders take profits: Brent was down to less than $63 at the time of writing, and WTI had slipped below $60 a barrel. Yet a substantial upside potential remains that could increase internal tensions between OPEC+ members.
????For one thing, U.S. demand for oil is recovering. The recovery, Bloomberg reports, started with the vaccination drive that began in December, and since then, refiners have been ramping up fuel production. The last couple of weeks have seen gasoline stocks rise but so has production.
????While demand in the world’s top consumer of oil recovers, production is stalling. According to the EIA, U.S. output will remain below 12 million bpd next year as well. This imbalance will turn the United States into a net exporter this year and next, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. But more importantly for OPEC+, this would push oil prices higher still, tempting barely compliant members to become even less compliant.
????There is already discord within the extended oil cartel. The last time OPEC+ made a decision on production, it had to make a compromise decision to take into account the interests of those—like Russia—that insisted on some rollback of the deepest production cuts. And now, Saudi Arabia has said it would suspend its voluntary unilateral additional cuts that amounted to 1 million bpd and that Riyadh effected in its whatever-it-takes quest for higher prices.
????That’s the clearest signal yet that OPEC’s de facto leader and biggest producer is becoming more optimistic about prices. Per the Wall Street Journal report that broke the news, however, the decision may yet be reversed if the price situation changes. Ironically, the very news that Saudi Arabia will add another million barrels daily to global supply is likely to have a negative effect on prices once the Texas deep freeze frenzy fizzles out.
????But while Saudi Arabia continues to be ready to do whatever it takes, Russia sees the oil market as already rebalanced. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said as much last week as quoted by Russian media.
????“We’ve seen low volatility in the past few months. This means the market is balanced and the prices we are seeing today are in line with the market situation,” Novak told TV channel Rossiya 1. Novak added that while last spring oil demand was 20-25 percent lower than its normal level at this time of year, by the end of 2020, the decline had shrunk to 8-9 percent. And Russia remains one of the barely compliant nations in the OPEC+ agreement. In fact, like Iraq, Russia has been producing over its quota.
????Speaking of Iraq, the country reported an increase in oil exports for the first two weeks of February despite its attempt to reduce production of crude oil further to compensate for its overproduction last year. For the full month, according to Bloomberg, Iraq may exceed its self-imposed cap of 3.6 million bpd and even its OPEC+ cap of 3.85 million bpd.
????And then there is Iran, which is already boosting production as it is exempt from the OPEC+ cuts and has big plans for its return on the international oil stage after U.S. sanctions are lifted. This has yet to happen, after Washington tied the removal of sanctions on Iran’s suspension of uranium enrichment activities.
????In what could be seen as a gesture of goodwill, the U.S. earlier this month said it had rescinded a declaration by the Trump administration that all UN sanctions against Iran had snapped back. The declaration was void because it used provisions from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the U.S. had left before making the declaration. In any case,?a certain menmber?has reasons for optimism that it will be sanction-free soon and ready to pump more.
????The discord between production cut hawks and production growth doves within OPEC+ will only deepen with the latest bullish news on oil. It already led Saudi Arabia’s oil minister to warn against complacency.
????“I must warn once again against complacency,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this week as quoted by Bloomberg. “The uncertainty is very high and we have to be extremely cautious. The scars from the events last year should teach us caution.”
????Uncertainty indeed remains high, and then there is the threat of U.S. producers giving in to the temptation of WTI at over $60. For now, they have been resisting it, in all fairness, perhaps displaying the same caution bin Salman talked about this week. But at some point, the temptation may become irresistible, and what for OPEC is a nightmare scenario may happen again: U.S. producers ramping up output thanks to OPEC+ efforts to keep prices high enough to make it economical.
????For now, there is no sign that OPEC+ will depart from its current policy of sticking with 7.2 million bpd in cuts until April. But, again, as Saudi Arabia’s top oilman said, “Those who are trying to predict the next move of OPEC+, to those I say, don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
