據(jù)MRCHUB網(wǎng)站8月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)稱(chēng)，亞洲煉油廠(chǎng)正在尋找原油來(lái)取代科威特的供應(yīng)，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)削減了近五分之一的出口，以供應(yīng)其龐大的新煉油廠(chǎng)，這推高了其他含硫原油的價(jià)格，并可能擠壓利潤(rùn)率。

科威特出口下降之前，歐佩克主要成員國(guó)沙特阿拉伯減產(chǎn)，將布倫特原油價(jià)格推至每桶近90美元，亞洲煉油商幾乎沒(méi)有回旋的空間，這些煉油廠(chǎng)三分之二以上的原油進(jìn)口依賴(lài)中東。

但科威特的大多數(shù)客戶(hù)將不得不從沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)等其他供應(yīng)商那里購(gòu)買(mǎi)類(lèi)似質(zhì)量的石油，或者從其他地區(qū)購(gòu)買(mǎi)更昂貴的低硫石油。咨詢(xún)公司睿咨得能源（Rystad Energy）的分析師Janiv Shah表示，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋是填補(bǔ)中東供應(yīng)缺口的最大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，因?yàn)樗鼈兩a(chǎn)和出口的是中等含硫原油。

Energy Aspects分析師孫佳楠表示，他們不太可能完全滿(mǎn)足需求。歐佩克生產(chǎn)商及其盟友的持續(xù)減產(chǎn)以及旨在加工含硫原油的新煉油能力可能導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張，直至2024年底。

根據(jù)Kpler的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，隨著Al Zour煉油廠(chǎng)的擴(kuò)建，科威特1至7月的原油出貨量比2022年同期減少了約10%，至161萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，同期對(duì)印度等國(guó)的出口下降了17%以上，而對(duì)巴基斯坦、菲律賓和泰國(guó)的出口量降至零。

據(jù)咨詢(xún)公司FGE、Energy Aspects、Rystad Energy和S&P Global Commodity Insights稱(chēng)，今年下半年，科威特的出口量將減少30萬(wàn)桶/天，比上半年減少18%，因?yàn)槠鋵⒐?yīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到日產(chǎn)能為61.5萬(wàn)桶的Al Zour工廠(chǎng)，該工廠(chǎng)在7月份啟動(dòng)了第三個(gè)也是最后一個(gè)原油蒸餾裝置(CDU)。

此外，各咨詢(xún)公司表示，科威特在阿曼的日產(chǎn)能為23萬(wàn)桶的合資企業(yè)Duqm煉油廠(chǎng)計(jì)劃于2023年底開(kāi)始運(yùn)營(yíng)，這可能會(huì)使科威特原油出口量在2024年進(jìn)一步減少10萬(wàn)至20萬(wàn)桶/天。

據(jù)一位知情人士稱(chēng)，科威特石油公司(KPC)已通知買(mǎi)家，每個(gè)月供應(yīng)量都可能波動(dòng)，一旦Al Zour全面投產(chǎn)，供應(yīng)量可能進(jìn)一步減少。KPC沒(méi)有回應(yīng)路透的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

郝芬 譯自 MRCHUB網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Asia's refiners face profit crunch as Kuwait cuts crude exports

Asian refiners are on the hunt for crude oil to replace Kuwaiti supply as the OPEC producer cuts exports by nearly a fifth to feed its huge new refinery, which is driving up prices for other sour crudes and likely to squeeze profit margins, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Lower Kuwaiti exports follow cuts from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that have pushed Brent prices close to USD90 a barrel and left little wriggle room for Asia's refiners, reliant on the Middle East for more than two-thirds of crude imports.

But most of Kuwait's customers will have to pay up for similar quality oil from other suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates or buy more expensive sweet grades from other regions. "Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the top contenders for filling the supply gap in the Middle East due to their production and export of medium sour barrels," said Janiv Shah, an analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.

"It is improbable that they will be able to entirely meet the demand." Sustained output cuts from OPEC producers and their allies and new refining capacity designed to process sour crude could lead to tight supply until the end of 2024, Energy Aspects analyst Sun Jianan said.

Kuwait's crude shipments shrank by about 10% to 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd) in January-July from the same period in 2022 as its Al Zour refinery ramped up, according to Kpler data. Exports to  India... dropped more than 17% during the same period, while volumes for Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand fell to zero, the data showed.

In the second half, Kuwait will reduce its exports by up to 300,000 bpd, down 18% from the first half, as it diverts supply to the 615,000 bpd Al Zour plant, which cranked up its third and final crude distillation unit (CDU) in July, according to consultancies FGE, Energy Aspects, Rystad Energy and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Additionally, Kuwait's joint venture 230,000 bpd Duqm refinery in Oman is scheduled to start operation by end-2023, which could reduce Kuwaiti crude exports by a further 100,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd in 2024, the consultancies said.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) has notified buyers that volumes could fluctuate each month and could be further reduced once Al Zour is at full operation, a source familiar with the matter said. KPC did not respond to Reuters' inquiry seeking comment.