6月27日上午，油價走高，WTI攀升至每桶70美元上方，布倫特原油逼近每桶75美元關口

沙特阿拉伯的減產(chǎn)和不穩(wěn)定加劇了對原油供應的擔憂，而此時正值駕車季節(jié)達到高峰

在油價走高的同時，持續(xù)的通脹和溫和的經(jīng)濟增長應該會限制WTI和布倫特原油的價格

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年6月27日報道，原油價格6月27日開盤上漲，由于國際新聞和對美國高峰駕駛季節(jié)需求增長的預期，對原油供應的擔憂再次出現(xiàn)。

在亞洲午盤交易中，布倫特原油逼近每桶75美元，WTI攀升至每桶70美元以上。

SPI資產(chǎn)管理公司管理合伙人斯蒂芬·英尼斯向英國《金融時報》表示：“只要一個主要石油供應國發(fā)生嚴重的地緣政治事件，就有可能出現(xiàn)供應中斷。”“這引發(fā)了一系列問題，我們必須看看結果如何。”

此外，沙特阿拉伯將從7月初開始實施減產(chǎn)，這將收緊全球原油供應。

路透社援引BIM Research的一份報告稱，“沙特阿拉伯將于7月實施額外的每天減少100萬桶原油產(chǎn)量，再加上季節(jié)性需求走強，這應有助于全球在第三季度實際收緊市場”。

與此同時，美國7月4日的需求預計將大幅增加，但這似乎只是暫時的價格驅動因素。鑒于美聯(lián)儲發(fā)出的最新信號，隨著經(jīng)濟步履蹣跚，全球最大的石油消費國今年的石油需求不太可能出現(xiàn)任何有意義的增長。

報告稱，“持續(xù)的通脹應該會給央行施加壓力，迫使它們保持限制性立場，并可能進一步收緊貨幣政策”。

盡管沙特阿拉伯減產(chǎn)以及地緣政治發(fā)出不穩(wěn)定警報，但這應該會抑制油價。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Supply Worries Drive Oil Prices Higher

·     Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday morning, with WTI climbing above $70 and Brent moving toward the $75 mark.

·     A combination of Saudi Arabia’s production cut and instability have boosted supply concerns just as driving season hits its peak.

·     While prices are moving higher, persistent inflation and moderate economic growth should keep a cap on both WTI and Brent.

Crude oil prices began trade with a gain today as supply worries returned to the table amid the rebellion news from international journalism and expectations of demand growth during peak driving season in the United States.

In midday trade in Asia Brent crude was moving toward $75 per barrel with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $70 per barrel.

“There’s a possibility of supply disruption any time you get a serious geopolitical event in a major oil supplier,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, told the Financial Times. “It opens up a can of worms and we’re going to have to see how that plays out.”

There is also the production cut that Saudi Arabia will implement from the start of next month and that will tighten supply globally.

"An additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) unilateral cut by Saudi Arabia, set to take effect in July, coupled with seasonally stronger demand, should help to physically tighten the market in Q3," BIM Research said in a note cited by Reuters.

Meanwhile, demand from the United States for July 4 is expected to jump but it seems the jump will be a temporary price driver. In light of the last signals from the Fed, demand for oil in the world’s largest consumer is not likely to expand in any meaningful way this year as the economy stumbles.

“We expect growth to moderate in [the second half of the year] as the recent tailwinds boosting service sector activity fade and the drags from restrictive monetary policy and tightening credit build,” JPMorgan’s strategists in a note cited by the FT.

“Persistent inflation should keep pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive stances — and likely tighten further.

This should keep a lid on oil prices despite the Saudi cuts and the instability alert in geographic politics.