由于需求疲軟，全球液化天然氣庫存量可能處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，但世界各地的進(jìn)口商仍在競相尋求獲得長期供應(yīng)合同

去年液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨市場的飆升凸顯了能源安全對(duì)進(jìn)口國的重要性，尤其是亞洲的進(jìn)口國

由于越來越多的液化天然氣被鎖定在長期交易中，不愿簽署長期交易的歐洲進(jìn)口商可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己支付的液化天然氣價(jià)格要高得多

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年5月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，在需求疲軟的情況下，全球液化天然氣庫存量可能已處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，但認(rèn)真的買家正在展望未來，并競相尋求簽訂液化天然氣長期供應(yīng)協(xié)議，以確保未來有足夠的液化天然氣，而不會(huì)受到變化無常現(xiàn)貨市場的影響。

雖然歐洲人可能不太喜歡長期交易，但亞洲出于能源轉(zhuǎn)型所需肯定喜歡液化天然氣長協(xié)交易。 石油巨頭們也不愿意把液化天然氣賣給不喜歡長期交易的歐洲市場。

伍德麥肯茲公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自今年年初以來，全球已經(jīng)完成了大約1300萬噸液化天然氣的長期交易，去年的增長勢頭延續(xù)到了今年。這家研究公司說，去年全年全球約有8100萬噸液化天然氣是根據(jù)所簽訂的長期協(xié)議供應(yīng)的。

印度是另一個(gè)尋求長期供應(yīng)保障的液化天然氣大買家。彭博新聞社本周報(bào)道稱，這個(gè)次大陸的能源進(jìn)口商正在尋求長期協(xié)議，以減少受價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并正在與來自中東的天然氣生產(chǎn)國進(jìn)行談判。

去年，由于歐盟急于盡可能多地獲取這種燃燒清潔的燃料，導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)貨市場液化天然氣價(jià)格飆升，導(dǎo)致國際價(jià)格如此之高，一些國家被迫從天然氣轉(zhuǎn)向燃煤發(fā)電，因?yàn)樗鼈冐?fù)擔(dān)不起液化天然氣的價(jià)格。

據(jù)彭博新聞社報(bào)道，印度最大液化天然氣進(jìn)口商Petronet LNG首席執(zhí)行官阿克沙伊·庫馬爾·辛格5月早些時(shí)候曾表示：“消費(fèi)國得到的教訓(xùn)是，不能以現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格為基礎(chǔ)經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)。”“展望未來，我們將看到很多由不同利益相關(guān)者簽署的長期合同。”

日本也是液化天然氣的大買家。這個(gè)能源貧乏的國家的能源消費(fèi)幾乎完全依賴進(jìn)口，而液化天然氣是日本能源進(jìn)口組合中的重要組成部分。正因?yàn)槿绱耍毡臼鞘澜缟献畲蟮囊夯烊粴膺M(jìn)口國，去年奪回了世界第一的位置，盡管液化天然氣進(jìn)口總量略有下降。

伍德麥肯茲表示，卡塔爾是液化天然氣買家進(jìn)口這種燃燒清潔燃料的熱門目的地，阿曼也是如此。阿曼在過去幾個(gè)月達(dá)成了許多長期交易，買家包括日本公用事業(yè)公司、石油巨頭和一家土耳其公司。

伍德麥肯茲指出，由于這種重新燃起的興趣，氣價(jià)正在上漲。長期液化天然氣合同通常與布倫特原油價(jià)格掛鉤，在2020年和2021年，平均價(jià)格約為原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格的10%/百萬英熱單位。伍德麥肯茲報(bào)告稱，現(xiàn)在賣家要求的價(jià)格是布倫特原油價(jià)格的12.5%及以上，有些交易甚至達(dá)到17%。

然而，鎖定在長期合同中的液化天然氣越多，現(xiàn)貨市場上的液化天然氣就越少，這表明液化天然氣價(jià)格可能在某個(gè)時(shí)候再次飆升，因?yàn)槟壳皩⒃?到4年到期的合同正在被新合同所取代。

重視能源安全的亞洲進(jìn)口商似乎主導(dǎo)了全球液化天然氣長期供應(yīng)市場，這使得重視向風(fēng)能和太陽能轉(zhuǎn)型的歐洲不得不為他們?cè)诖似陂g仍將繼續(xù)需要的天然氣支付更高價(jià)格。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The Race To Secure Long-Term LNG Contracts

·     Liquefied natural gas inventories may be at a record high due to weak demand, but importers around the world are looking to secure long-term contracts.

·     The surge in the spot market last year has highlighted the importance of energy security to importers, especially importers in Asia.

·     As more LNG is locked up in long-term deals, European importers who are reluctant to sign on to long-term deals may find themselves paying much higher prices.

Global LNG inventories may be at a record high amid weak demand but serious buyers are looking forward and sealing long-term supply deals to secure enough LNG for the future without exposing themselves to the fickle spot market.

While Europeans may not be huge fans of long-term deals because of their transition plans, Asians definitely like their long-term LNG deals. And so do the supermajors that will then sell this LNG to long-term-averse Europeans.

Since the start of the year, long-term deals worth some 13 million tons annually have been closed, according to Wood Mackenzie, with momentum from last year carrying over to this year. Last year, the research firm said, some 81 million tons annually of LNG were contracted under long-term supply deals.

India is another big LNG buyer with a taste for long-term supply security. Bloomberg reported this week that energy importers on the subcontinent were on the hunt for long-term deals to reduce exposure to price fluctuations and were in talks with producers from the Middle East.

The rush comes after last year’s surge in spot market LNG prices after the European Union rushed to secure as much of the fuel as it could, pushing international prices so high some countries were forced to switch from gas to coal for energy generation because they couldn’t afford the gas in liquefied form.

“The lesson learned by the consumers is that they can’t run the business based on spot,” Akshay Kumar Singh, chief executive of Petronet LNG, said earlier this month, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Going forward, we will be finding a lot of long-term contracts signed by different stakeholders.”

Japan is also a big buyer of LNG. The energy-poor country is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy consumption, and LNG is a big part of the import mix. Because of that, Japan is the world’s largest LNG importer, retaking the top spot last year even though total LNG imports declined slightly.

Qatar is a popular destination for LNG buyers, and so is Oman, according to Wood Mackenzie. The latter has seen a number of long-term deals sealed in the past few months, with buyers including Japanese utilities, the supermajors, and a Turkish one.

As a result of this renewed interest, the research firm noted, prices are on the rise. Long-term LNG contracts are normally indexed to Brent crude prices, and in 2020 and 2021, the average pricing was some 10% of the benchmark per 1 million British thermal units. Now, sellers are asking for 12.5% of Brent and above, with some deals reaching 17%, Wood Mackenzie reports.

The more LNG is locked in long-term contracts, however, the less LNG there is on the spot market, which suggests prices may see another surge at some point as contracts expiring in three to four years are currently being replaced with new ones.

Asian importers who are serious about their energy security seem to dominate the long-term supply market, which leaves Europeans, who are serious about their transition to wind and solar, to pay higher prices for the gas they would continue needing in the meantime.