據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，高盛投資公司將今年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)從每桶99美元上調(diào)至每桶104美元。 歐佩克+決定11月份日減200萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量是高盛投資銀行上調(diào)今年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期的主要原因。

盡管日減200萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量只是名義數(shù)字，但歐佩克+11月份實(shí)際減產(chǎn)幅度將會(huì)更小，約為200萬(wàn)桶的一半，但高盛投資銀行認(rèn)為，鑒于現(xiàn)貨石油市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)足夠緊張，該公司有理由更新價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)。

高盛投資銀行預(yù)計(jì)，第四季度布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶110美元，2023年第一季度將升至每桶115美元。

高盛投資銀行最新報(bào)告中最樂(lè)觀的部分可以說(shuō)是，該行表示，如果歐佩克+將減產(chǎn)維持到2023年，他們對(duì)布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)可能會(huì)上升25美元。

10月6日，摩根士丹利也上調(diào)了其對(duì)布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)，將其對(duì)2023年第一季度的布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期上調(diào)至100美元。根據(jù)高盛投資銀行的最新預(yù)測(cè)，由于減產(chǎn)，明年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格可能達(dá)到每桶110美元。

高盛投資銀行分析師評(píng)論稱(chēng)，如此大幅度的減產(chǎn)將促使美國(guó)做出回應(yīng)，而這種回應(yīng)極有可能是進(jìn)一步釋放戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備中的原油。 

一些媒體評(píng)論人士批評(píng)說(shuō)，在大多數(shù)石油消費(fèi)大國(guó)都在與通貨膨脹和本已短缺的能源供應(yīng)作斗爭(zhēng)之際，減少石油現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)這是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。  

“石油市場(chǎng)的緩沖(庫(kù)存和備用產(chǎn)能)仍然極低，油價(jià)上漲仍是解決短期庫(kù)存增加和中期供應(yīng)能力提高的關(guān)鍵可行的長(zhǎng)期解決方案。”高盛投資銀行分析師如是說(shuō)。  

盡管油價(jià)在10月7日早間略有下滑，但油價(jià)仍有望創(chuàng)下今年春季以來(lái)的最大單周漲幅。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Boosts Oil Price Predictions In Bullish Update

Goldman Sachs raised its 2022 price forecast for Brent crude from $99 to $104 per barrel. The increase was driven by the OPEC+ decision to reduce output by 2 million bpd.

Although the 2-million-barrel figure is nominal and the actual output cut would be smaller, at around half that, the bank believes the physical oil market is tight enough to justify such price forecast updates.

On a quarterly basis, Goldman sees Brent trading at $110 this quarter and rising to $115 per barrel in the first quarter of 2023.

In arguably the most bullish part of Goldman’s update, the bank said that there could be a $25 upside to their Brent forecast if OPEC+ maintains its output reduction through to 2023.

Yesterday, Morgan Stanley also raised its price forecast for Brent crude, to $100 for the first quarter of 2023. According to Goldman’s latest forecast, the average for Brent next year could be $110 per barrel as a result of the cuts.

The bank’s analysts commented that such a deep cut would prompt a response from the United States and that this response would most likely be a further release of strategic reserve crude.

According to Goldman, even the International Energy Agency might join the reserve release to keep a lid on oil prices.

Some media commentators have criticized the reduction of physical supply of oil at a time when most big consumers are struggling with inflation and an already short supply of energy. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas suggested it was a mistake.

"The oil market's buffers (stocks and spare capacity) remain critically low, and higher prices remain the key viable, long-term solution to increased inventories in the short term and higher supply capacity medium term," Goldman analysts said.

While oil prices had cooled off slightly early on Friday morning, they were still set for the largest weekly gain since Spring.