據美國鉆井網站2022年9月22日報道，全球領先的商業情報公司伍德麥肯茲公司（WM）認為，天然氣和液化天然氣（LNG）將在2050年前實現全球氣溫上升1.5攝氏度的目標方面發揮重要作用，但由此產生的市場可能面目全非。 

加速能源轉型情景(AET-1.5)探索了一條路徑，即到本世紀末，全球氣溫自前工業化時代以來的升幅控制在1.5攝氏度以內，到2050年前達到全球凈零排放。根據AET-1.5，除天然氣外，其他碳氫化合物需求將迅速下降。  

雖然脫碳措施無疑會給最終用途能源需求帶來壓力，但天然氣仍可發揮關鍵作用。煤炭的逐步淘汰支持了天然氣的使用，同時天然氣作為藍色氫氣的原料的需求也在不斷增長。而且，至關重要的是，隨著電氣化和可再生能源的普及，天然氣與碳捕獲和儲存（CCS）相結合可以成為靈活和可調度發電的來源——即使電池技術正在進步。 

然而，伍德麥克公司認為，只有CCS技術得到改進，才能找到一種高效、低成本的減少二氧化碳排放的方法。 

由于歐洲從產能大國天然氣轉向，短期內仍需要天然氣和液化天然氣投資。地緣政治沖突引發了全球天然氣市場的巨大變化——其中很大一部分是不可逆轉的。 歐洲對LNG的需求尤其飆升。

然而，大量已經開始并可能持續到明年的最終投資決定（FID）將迅速填補這一空間。在去年批準5000萬噸/年的新產能后，FID的勢頭仍在繼續。到目前為止，今年1300萬噸/年的普拉克明項目的第一階段和兩個快速LNG項目已經獲得批準。 

今年晚些時候，在美國，伍德麥肯茲公司預計普拉克明項目的第二階段和切尼爾能源公司的科珀斯克里斯蒂項目第三階段將緊隨其后投產。在AET-1.5情景下，這些新投產項目加上卡塔爾的持續擴張LNG產能，從而增加了21世紀20年代末或30年代初供應過剩的風險。此后，隨著亞洲需求繼續增長，但將受到天然氣需求長期下降的限制，機會之窗將再次打開。

長期來看，如果全球氣溫上升1.5攝氏度，天然氣需求下降是不可避免的。隨著氫、氨等綠色脫碳商品的大規模進入，市場競爭將更加激烈和充滿活力。

價格下跌和需求不確定性將不可避免地影響對大型固定基礎設施項目的數十億美元投資，比如新的大型國際管道。低油價還將挑戰高成本非常規油氣上游開發的經濟效益，降低進一步勘探的意愿。由于市場收縮速度相比資產利用時間更快， 現有的基礎設施資產可能得不到充分利用。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網

原文如下：

Gas And LNG Have A Role To Play In Net-Zero World

Gas and LNG have an important role to play in realizing a 1.5-degree scenario by 2050 – but the resulting market could be unrecognizable, Wood Mackenzie believes.

An accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century and reach global net-zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.

While decarbonization measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.

However, Woodmac believes that this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.

Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from the larger producer's gas. The war sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.

However, a raft of FIDs, which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year, will fill up this space quickly. FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity was sanctioned in 2021. 

Later this year, in the U.S., Woodmac expects the second phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s or early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.

Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5-degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonization, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.  

Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion-dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilized as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.