據美國鉆井網站2022年7月26日報道，美國能源信息署（EIA）在其最新一期的短期能源展望（STEO）報告中下調了今年和明年布倫特原油價格預測。

根據7月份STEO報告, EIA現在預計布倫特原油現貨的平均價格今年將達到每桶104.05美元，2023年將達到每桶93.75美元。EIA在6月份發布的上一期STEO報告中預測，今年布倫特原油現貨平均價格將為每桶107.37美元，明年將為每桶97.24美元。  

EIA在7月份STEO報告中預測，今年第三季度布倫特原油的平均現貨價格將達到每桶104.27美元，第四季度將達到每桶96.97美元。在之前的STEO報告中，EIA預計今年布倫特原油第三季度和第四季度平均現貨油價分別為每桶111.28美元和104.97美元。 

展望2023年的季度數據，EIA最新的STEO報告預測，布倫特原油明年第一季度、第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的現貨價格平均分別為每桶95美元、94美元、93美元和93美元。EIA在6月份STEO報告中預測，布倫特原油第一季度、第二季度、第三季度和第四季度現貨價格分別為每桶99.30美元、96.65美元、96美元和97美元。 

EIA在最新的STEO報告中表示：“我們預計，布倫特原油價格在今年下半年將平均為每桶101美元，然后在2023年跌至每桶94美元。”

EIA說：“預測的價格下跌是今年底全球石油庫存預計增加的結果。根據我們的預測，大部分價格下跌將發生在今年下半年，從6月份的平均每桶123美元下降到第四季度的每桶97美元。”

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

USA EIA Lowers Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

According to its July STEO, the EIA now sees the average Brent spot price coming in at $104.05 per barrel this year and $93.75 per barrel in 2023. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in June, forecasted that the average Brent spot price would be $107.37 per barrel in 2022 and $97.24 per barrel in 2023.

In its July STEO, the EIA predicts that the average Brent spot price will be $104.27 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $96.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA saw the 3Q and 4Q averages coming in at $111.28 per barrel and $104.97 per barrel, respectively.

Looking at 2023 quarterly figures, the EIA’s latest STEO sees 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices averaging $95 per barrel, $94 per barrel, $93 per barrel, and $93 per barrel, respectively. The EIA’s June STEO saw 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices coming in at $99.30 per barrel, $96.65 per barrel, $96 per barrel, and $97 per barrel, respectively.

“We expect the Brent crude oil price will average $101 per barrel in 2H22 and then fall to $94 per barrel in 2023,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.  

“The forecast price declines are the result of expected increases in global oil inventories in late 2022. Most of the price declines in our forecast occur in 2H22, with prices falling from $123 per barrel on average in June to $97 per barrel in 4Q22,” the EIA added.