美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）發(fā)布的美國(guó)每周石油需求數(shù)據(jù)被大大高估。  

3月份的每周石油需求預(yù)估已經(jīng)表明，近期的石油需求強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭正在減弱。  

在最新的每周石油需求評(píng)估中，EIA估計(jì)上周僅汽油日需求就從863萬(wàn)桶降至850萬(wàn)桶。

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，全球著名石油數(shù)據(jù)分析公司OilX周五（4月1日）表示，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)公布的每周石油需求數(shù)據(jù)與最后一個(gè)月度石油需求數(shù)據(jù)相比被大大高估。  

OilX在推特上發(fā)文稱(chēng)：“美國(guó)每周發(fā)布的石油需求數(shù)據(jù)嚴(yán)重高估了月度石油總需求，不僅是其他油類(lèi)，還有道路燃料?！?/p>

根據(jù)這家分析公司公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)3月份的每周需求估計(jì)已經(jīng)顯示出近期需求強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭正在減弱。

OilX指出：“如果近期的數(shù)據(jù)與月度數(shù)據(jù)相比繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)類(lèi)似的錯(cuò)誤，那么這一數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)變得更弱。”

EIA 3月31日公布的月度原油供應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月份美國(guó)原油日總供應(yīng)量(反映石油總需求的指標(biāo))平均為1973萬(wàn)桶。EIA的每周數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)原油平均日需求量為2170萬(wàn)桶，遠(yuǎn)高于這一水平。  

彭博新聞社能源和大宗商品專(zhuān)欄作家哈維爾·布拉斯3月31日表示：“盡管每周的數(shù)據(jù)顯示需求為日均2170萬(wàn)桶，但月度數(shù)據(jù)將其削減近200萬(wàn)桶，至日均1973萬(wàn)桶。” 

這一向下修改可能表明，美國(guó)的石油需求并不像今年早些時(shí)候許多分析師認(rèn)為的那樣強(qiáng)勁。  

在最新的每周評(píng)估中，EIA估計(jì)上周僅汽油日需求量就從863萬(wàn)桶降至850萬(wàn)桶。  

美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)（AAA）3月31日表示：“汽油需求的下降，加上汽油總庫(kù)存量的增加，導(dǎo)致了汽油價(jià)格的下跌。 如果需求繼續(xù)下降，而汽油庫(kù)存量繼續(xù)增加，那么全國(guó)汽油平均價(jià)格可能會(huì)繼續(xù)走低?！盇AA指出汽油價(jià)格在4月1日結(jié)束的那周里已小幅下跌。

油價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩3月31日在美國(guó)宣布史上最大規(guī)模的戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備原油釋放后表示：“隨著油價(jià)下跌，油價(jià)的下跌趨勢(shì)將繼續(xù)下去?！?德哈恩補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“下周美國(guó)幾乎所有州都將看到汽油價(jià)格下跌，甚至下跌時(shí)間可能更久。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated

● OilX: Weekly U.S. oil demand data by the Energy Information Administration has been significantly overestimated.

● The weekly demand estimates in March already showed that recent demand strength has been easing off.

● In the latest weekly assessment, the EIA estimated that gasoline demand alone fell from 8.63 million bpd to 8.5 million bpd last week.

Weekly U.S. oil demand data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been significantly overestimated compared to the final monthly oil demand, oil data analytics firm OilX said on Friday.

"US weekly data significantly overestimated total monthly oil demand, not just in other oils, but also for road fuels," OilX said in a post on Twitter.

The weekly demand estimates in March already showed that recent demand strength has been easing off, according to the analytics company.

"This may turn out even weaker if recent errors vs monthlies continue in a similar fashion," OilX noted.  

petroleum supply monthly, published on Thursday, showed that total product supplied—the proxy for total oil demand—averaged 19.731 million barrels per day (bpd) in January.  

weekly data pegged American oil demand at a much higher level—21.7 million bpd.

"While weekly data pegged demand at 21.7m b/d, the monthly data cuts it back almost two million barrels a day to 19.73m b/d," Javier Blas, energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg, said on Thursday,

The downward revision could be a sign that demand was not as strong as many analysts believed earlier this year.

In the latest weekly assessment, the EIA estimated that gasoline demand alone fell from 8.63 million bpd to 8.5 million bpd last week.

"The drop in gas demand, alongside growth in total stocks, contributes to price decreases. If demand continues to decline as gasoline stocks continue to build, the national average will likely continue to move lower," AAA said on Thursday, noting that gasoline prices have fallen this week slightly.

"The downdrafts will continue as oil drops after the SPR announcement," GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, said on Thursday after the U.S. announced the largest-ever SPR release. "Nearly all states will see falling gasprices over the next week and potentially beyond," De Haan added.